SHANE O’Dwyer, chief executive of the ITBA, kicked off a lively and informed afternoon of discussion covering the state of the market, opportunities for breeders, tax schemes, emerging markets, filly retention schemes and the impact of Brexit.

The ITBA is aiming for a focused support structure to provide assistance to breeders operating in the middle market, attracting quality broodmares from abroad, increase return on investment for breeders while promoting regional development throughout Ireland.

The association is working to identify certain tax measures which will be included in their submission for Budget 2020 consideration and it is essential that the industry must be included in any discussions with the EU, regarding allowing state aid measures for certain industries that will be badly hit by Brexit.

First speaker up was bloodstock analyst John Lynam who summarised the yearling sales of 2018, some of which has witnessed considerable downturns. He offered some pointers for 2019.

Shadwell Estates have maintained the boycott of Coolmore progeny at sales unlike Godolphin and Rabbah who propped up the top market at the Tattersalls October Yearling Sales. If Shadwell change the policy and buy into Coolmore stock this could mean a considerable upturn for trade, particularly for Goffs.

There are some very good stallions standing in Ireland and the fees have become very expensive on the merit of what the stallion has done. However, there are a number of people still going to those stallions with mares that don’t deserve that type of stallion and “that’s called over covering and you will pay for it at the yearling sales. If you have a modestly-bred filly with a big nomination in her, you will probably lose money.”

The breeze-up sales in 2018 were very difficult; the number of horses offered went up by 17% but the demand fell by 2%. The breeze-up buyers took evasive action at the yearling sales.

“You could see people cutting back on expenditure, we saw some people who got into the breeze-up market and thought it was a licence to print money, exiting.’’

They cut back on expenditure and the number of lots bought. That type of reaction could help make breeze-up sales in 2019 more profitable and they can spend more money at 2019 yearling sales.

IMPROVEMENT

Breeze up operators have been a key component of demand at the middle and upper end of the lower market so it is important that they have an improvement in their fortunes for 2019.

Lynam considered the effect of the future euro/pound sterling exchange rates on breeders’ pockets. If sterling weakens it won’t be good for vendors selling in Britain.. If sterling strengthens, it will be good for profits.

Recent research had suggested that if there is a good Brexit deal the pound could rise to €1.19 but if there is no deal it could go south to €1.02.

By the time of the yearling sales, Brexit will have to be resolved and the matter of how it is resolved will be crucial. Will Brexit send Britain into recession and what bearing will it have on the bloodstock market?

Lynam concluded by commenting on over production and that 20 or 25 years ago when there was over production in the market, the big sales produced patchy trade when the strong lots were mixed in with weaker stock. Buyers were not happy and companies set-up graded sales whose results were grim reading.

He advised: “If the market is continually ignoring your produce you have two choices: retire the mare and buy a better product or go on breeding as a hobby.”

BRUSSELS

Michael Treacy, the ITBA EU consultant, brought the audience up to date on the efforts of the association to lobby in Brussels for the sector if the “worst possible outcome for Ireland, the EU and Britain is forthcoming – a no-deal Brexit.”

representations

Phil Hogan (European Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development) has made strong representation to Donald Tusk (President of the European Council) and Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the European Commission) about Ireland’s perilous position if a no-deal Brexit ensues.

key officials

ITBA representatives had met with key officials in the Commission such as Alf-Eckbert Füssel (health and welfare of animals) and Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s Brexit coordinator .

Treacy also commended the contribution of Des Leadon (Irish Equine Centre) for his support of the ITBA’s representations.