RACING and bloodstock analyst John Lynam has put forward a number of possible reasons why this year’s Tattersalls October Yearling Sale (Books 1 & 2) saw a drop in spending from the previous year but he says the bloodstock market remains in good health.

A year ago Book 1 saw an incredible 127 million guineas spent, a jump of 46% which was never likely to be sustained. This year’s Book 1 aggregate of 95 million guineas may have been 25% down on last year but it was still 10% up on the 2021 figure.

Book 2 this week generated 54 million guineas in spending, 10% below last year but almost exactly in line with 2021.

“There were three elements at play this year,” Lynam said. “Firstly, remember that one high-profile buyer [Saleh Al Homaizi] did not pay for £11 million worth of yearlings bought at Tattersalls last year, so it is not accurate to compare the 2022 aggregates with this year.

“Secondly, this year Godolphin only spent half of what they spent the previous year. Dubawi has served them incredibly well and last year Godolphin bought every Dubawi they could get, including six seven-figure purchases. This year they only bought four Dubawis at Tattersalls.”

Lynam added that, according to his analysis, there were fewer big spenders in action at the sales this year. “I calculate that there were 18 individual buyers operating at the 500,000gns-plus level this year, compared to 31 last year. I also looked at the number of people who spent a million or more and that dropped from 29 to 19 this year.”

At Book 2 this week, a total of 17 lots made 300,000gns or more, down from 34 last year.

“Those are sobering statistics but if you look at it from an overall perspective, this year’s Book 2 aggregate was only 1% below the 2021 figure. This week’s average was actually up on 2021 and the median price was the same. So you could call this more of a correction than a catastrophe.”

Looking at the number of buybacks, Lynam believes some vendors found themselves caught in a difficult position. “There were six vendor buybacks at six-figure sums in 2021 and 2022. That number jumped to 15 this week. It seems as if some vendors had paid very high stallion fees and could not take the pain of a big loss.”