IMPROBABLE has usurped Tiz The Law as favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with some bookmakers following the former’s impressive victory in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita.

In winning the nine-furlong contest by four and a half lengths, eased down, the Bob Baffert-trained four-year-old claimed the scalp of stable companion Maximum Security, who finished second in the five-horse field, having been sent off the odds-on favourite.

Winning jockey Drayden Van Dyke can take plenty of credit for Improbable’s success, having employed exaggerated waiting tactics on the son of City Zip. At halfway the partnership were sitting several lengths off the other four, the field headed by Take The One O One and Maximum Security.

Rounding the home turn, Van Dyke and Improbable made their move, quickly circling the entire field and stretching clear for a comfortable win. This was Improbable’s third consecutive Grade 1 win, following similarly impressive performances in the Hollywood Gold Cup (Santa Anita) and Whitney Stakes (Saratoga).

Turnaround

Saturday’s result represented quite a turnaround from the form of last year’s Kentucky Derby where Maximum Security was first past the post (but disqualified) and Improbable finished fifth (promoted to fourth).

“I knew I was coming in here with two really good horses,” trainer Bob Baffert told TVG. “Maximum Security, he was up in that scrum, they were really running up close. Drayden knew what was happening and he sat back. He rode a great race, he knew what was going on there. He’s had good luck with this horse.”

This was Maximum Security’s first defeat in four starts this year and one suspects he was not seen at his best, even with his old ally Luis Saez back in the saddle.

“There was a lot of pressure along the way and he couldn’t get comfortable, but that’s how these races go,” Saez reported. “You win sometimes and don’t others.The good thing is he pulled up pretty good, so let’s see how next time goes. He was fighting at the end of the race, but we lost.”

Servis provider

Maximum Security was formerly trained by Jason Servis, who is currently suspended pending a doping charge, and another former inmate of his won the Grade 2 Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont Park last weekend.

Firenze Fire is now trained by Kelly Breen, whose biggest claim to fame is sending out Ruler On Ice to win the Belmont Stakes at 25/1 in 2011.

Since joining the Breen barn in June, the five-year-old Firenze Fire has been in pretty good form. The Vosburgh victory was his second Grade 2 win at Belmont for his new trainer in five starts and he won the six-furlong dirt stakes by almost three lengths.

Breen, who was also crowned leading trainer at Monmouth Park in New Jersey last weekend, will now aim Firenze Fire at the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in Keeneland but there is no escaping the fact that the horse just loves the surface at Belmont.

The trainer told reporters: “I’ll bring a couple of cups, make it a couple of buckets of this track, and we’ll put it down in the stretch [at Keeneland].” Winning owner Ron Lombardi added: “I’ll bring a dumpster!”

Firenze Fire finished fifth in the Sprint last year and this will be his fourth consecutive year to run at the Breeders’ Cup meeting.