TWO days after the Cheltenham Festival concluded the Irish flat season kicked into gear at the Curragh recently and this week, I am taking a break from the National Hunt action to look at the data from that meeting and from Naas last Sunday. The best performance from the Curragh came from a two-year-old who we can already identify as being a potential Royal Ascot winner.
The opening race at the Curragh produced the best performance of the day from Power Blue who was visually impressive in storming three and three-quarter lengths clear of his rivals in the Castle Star At Capital Stud Irish European Breeders Fund Maiden. He was the first runner for the first season sire Space Blues who stayed a mile but was a fast two-year-old himself and that trait has clearly been passed on to Power Blue.
Final time comparisons are not always a good guide to the value of a performance because it is how those times are achieved that matters, but in this case, Power Blue produced a time that was far superior to any other winner on the card and is therefore an interesting analytical tool.
The RaceIQ Time Index looks at final times and gives every winner a score out of 10 based on the final time achieved in comparison with historical data for a race of that class at that track over that distance and Power Blue scores highly in comparison to all the other races on the card. He was the only horse to dip under the Race IQ standard on the day with a win time of 1m 4.51s which was (-0.35s) under standard and his Time Index score of six out of 10 easily beat the meeting average of (2.7).
Time Index Scores and Standard time comparison in race order:
1. Power Blue: 6 (-0.35s)
2. Back Down Under: 1.2 (+3.67s)
3. Laugh A Minute: 2 (+2.93s)
4. Bint Queen Kindly: 4.3 (+1.75s)
5. Orandi: 2.4 (+3.89s)
6. Dupont Law: 3 (+3.76s)
7. Goldrush Kid: 1.4 (+5.70s)
8. Glen To Glen: 1.5 (+3.63s)
Powe Blue made all the running sustaining his speed better than his rivals. He was the fastest in the race through each of the final two furlongs and was the only horse to dip under 13.00s in the final furlong (12.77s). This strong finish gave him a Finishing Speed Percentage of 105.57% which is based on him producing the fastest final two furlongs on the card of 24.44s.
You could apply the usual caveat that he knew his job better than his rivals and was more clued up than some of them. To some extent that is supported by him being fastest out of the stalls, taking just 2.68s to reach 20mph (runner – up 2.73s) but his performance in comparison to others on the day was outstanding and I am more inclined to believe this was a tremendous performance.
I would add that if we are to temper enthusiasm for this performance such dilution could lie in the fact that you would expect a fast performance over five furlongs, but to be so much better than older and more experienced winners on the card marks this effort out as being outstanding.
Power Blue has been given a Timeform Speed figure of 97. It is rare that a two-year-old achieves such a high number on debut and Power Blue is undoubtedly on course for Royal Ascot. It is worth pointing out that trainer Adrian Murray has won this race twice before and both have gone on to win at Pattern level.
THE ground at Naas on Sunday was very testing and should be rated as heavy. The average Race IQ time index for the meeting was 3.9 out of 10 reflective of the attritional conditions.
The Listed Devoy Stakes was about who could keep going best in the conditions. The first two home, Sunchart and Enfranchise, were rated evenly from off the pace and kept going better than those ridden more prominently. The RaceIQ Par FSP for a race of this class at Naas over this distance is 103.13%. The first two did not achieve par but Sunchart (FSP: 100.77%), Enfranchise (100.29%) were the only two to finish relatively strongly. The patient rides that they got enabled them to be the only horses in the race to dip under 16.00s for the final furlong whilst the others floundered in the conditions.
It is interesting to look at speed distribution when conditions are testing, because expending too much energy early on in a race under heavy conditions can take a significant toll. In these 10-furlong races the first two recorded their fastest furlong late in the race whereas the rest of the field ran their faster splits in the second and third furlongs sapping them of reserves for a strong finish.
Truatyourinstinct did best of those horses ridden prominently. Two of his first three furlongs were faster than Par and he was faster than Sunchart and Enfranchise through the fifth and sixth furlong, but those early exertions took their toll as recorded four sub-par sectionals to conclude the race. His best form has come under sounder conditions, and he is likely to leave this form behind next time out.
Faiyum is a filly with a long stride who could be even better on faster ground \ Healy Racing
FAIYUM won on debut finishing the Aesop’s Fables At Compass Stallions Irish EBF Fillies Maiden strongly recording a Race IQ time index of 4.5 (Meeting average 3.9).She impressed with how well she picked up having raced in ninth place for the first half mile.
She quickened off the steady pace to record a final two furlongs of 27.10s much better than the runner – up (27.91s). Her FSP of 104.00% was better than the Race IQ Par FSP of 99.91% thanks to a final furlong of 14.33s which is rated as very fast as against Par.
Wannabe Royal and Bay Colony in second and third were both more experienced and both raced more prominently than Faiyum, holding a positional advantage given the modest gallop, but Faiyum was far too fast for them through the final three furlongs, recording faster individual splits than both of them through those closing furlongs.
She is a filly with a long stride who could be even better on faster ground. She had the longest average stride length in the race of 6.73 metres but the lowest cadence of 2.15 strides per second.
Given that a high cadence is associated with an ability to handle soft ground whereas a long stride is better suited to skimming over a decent surface she may well be a better when she encounters a sounder surface.
That opportunity may come at the Curragh on April 12th in the Group 3 Park Express stakes.
This race has a good recent record with the last four winners going on to better things at a higher level and Faiyum looks sure to do well at a higher level under the shrewd guidance of her trainer Ger Lyons.