IT is time to look ahead to the Cheltenham Festival, utilising the Race IQ data.
All the races over the four days are data rich, but I will concentrate on some of the feature events earlier in the week, starting with the Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on Tuesday.
Kopek Des Bordes will head to post a strong favourite for the opening race of the Festival and the Data suggests that he could get favourite-backers off to an excellent start.
His debut over hurdles at Leopardstown did not preface him even running in this race, let alone going off favourite. He won by two and a half lengths, despite an indifferent round of jumping, posting a below average Race IQ jump index of 5.6 out of 10, which was bettered in the race by 17 of his 23 rivals.
The story was completely different when he turned up at the Dublin Racing Festival. He jumped a lot better, recording an above average Jump Index of 8.0, gaining 10.72 lengths on the field with his jumping.
This represented a big improvement from his debut and no other horse at the DRF gained more lengths in a race than he did.
The best Jump Index scores of the first five in the market are detailed below.
Kopek Des Bordes 8.0
Salvator Mundi 7.3
Romeo Coolio 7.8
Workahead 8.5
William Munny 7.2
Workahead is obviously of interest, given his slick and efficient jumping, as represented by his best score of 8.5. He had looked like a strong stayer at two miles when defeated on his debut over hurdles and he could make the frame here in a truly run contest, but he may lack the speed that Kopek Des Bordes possesses.
Kopek Des Bordes can sustain his speed. He was faster than all his rivals through each of the final four furlongs at the DRF, recording a fast final time of 3m 59.90s.
For context, Hello Neighbour, who won the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle on the previous day over the same trip, recorded 4m 5.30s. This speed, allied with the distinct improvement in his jumping from his debut, meant that he destroyed the field winning by 13 lengths.
He will be very hard to beat, but given how short he is in the market, Workahead, whose yard are in excellent form now, may represent some each-way value.
Constitution simply the best bet
DATA analysis is not really needed to identify that Constitution Hill is the class act in the Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, but what we can ascertain from the numbers is that he is as good as ever.
The data tells us that he is the best jumper in the race, with a better lifetime jump index score than all his rivals.
The scores attributed to the first five in the market are below.
Constitution Hill: 8.8
Brighterdaysahead: 8.4
Lossiemouth: 7.9
State Man: 7.6
Burdett Road: 7.6
This lifetime score is in line with his two starts this season at Kempton and at Cheltenham. On those two occasions, his race scores were 8.6 and 8.8.
His speed is intact as well. In the Christmas hurdle at Kempton, he approached his hurdles on average at 32.51mph, which was a mile an hour faster than he achieved when winning the same race in 2023.
His top speed in the race of 35.86mph was 1.55mph slower than in 2023, but the pace was stronger, and the ground was slower.
In his two races this season, he has recorded fast finishes with Finishing Speed Percentages of 105.90% and 111.00%, suggesting that he still retains plenty of speed.
When he won the Champion Hurdle in 2023, he recorded a top speed of 35.82mph and he equalled that this season in the Christmas hurdle when hitting 35.86mph. The analytical evidence suggesting that he is as good as ever.
In conclusion, there is absolutely no evidence in any of the data that Constitution Hill is not back to his very best and, if he trades at odds against, he may be the best short-priced bet of the meeting.
THE data suggest that the Bet MGM Queen Mother Champion Chase is more open than the market suggests.
Jonbon is the 10/11 favourite, on the back of him winning all his three starts this season. This race is often a stern test of jumping and he is not the best jumper in the field, as highlighted by the Race IQ career level jump index scores.
Jonbon: 7.7
Marine Nationale: 7.8
Enurgumene: 7.9
Solness: 7.7
Gaelic Warrior: 8.3
With Gaelic Warrior now a non-runner, the top of the market is seemingly dominated by horses whose career record in terms of jumping is only just above average.
This does not mean Jonbon cannot win, but it does suggest he may be vulnerable, in a race that looks sure to be run at a strong tempo, putting jumping to the test.
In a race that lends itself to an each-way approach, Solness may also be a sensible play. His win in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase was not a case of him getting an easy lead. He went hard from the front, getting his rivals out of their comfort zones as the four sub-14.00s furlongs in the first mile indicate.
He was tired at the finish (FSP 95.21%), but he was able to stay on well enough to win by two lengths.
Interestingly, in winning his last two starts, he has put up the best two rounds of jumping in his chasing career so far, with jump index scores of 8.3 and 8.2, which easily beats his career average of 7.7.
It may just be that his ability to set a stern gallop and at the same time jump well, will expose weaknesses in his rivals’ jumping, as they find themselves out of their comfort zones earlier than usual.
The 8/1 available about him looks to be a very fair each-way price.