WHEN data paints a positive picture about a horse’s performance, the temptation is to conclude that this is the horse’s default position. The truth is that the circumstances that enabled a horse to record excellent data may not be repeated next time out. Equally, a data-rich performance could preface a poorer effort next time out, commonly known as the ‘bounce factor’.
A good example of where a change in the race circumstances prefaces a lesser effort came with the performance of Allegorie De Vassy in the BBA Ireland Limited Opera Hat Mares Chase last Saturday. She had produced a data-rich performance, when winning at Fairyhouse in January, setting a strong pace and dominating that Grade 3 from the front, recording a career-best Race IQ jump index of 8.4 and gaining 12.63 lengths on her rivals through her jumping.
She failed to repeat these numbers last Saturday at Naas, when narrowly beaten by Dinoblue. Her jump index of 7.6 telling us she was nowhere near as quick and efficient at her jumps as she was at Fairyhouse and, therefore, only gained 1.46 lengths with her jumping.
The difference in the data can be explained by the drop in trip from two miles and six furlongs at Fairyhouse to two miles at Naas and the fact that she was unable to dominate the race at Naas in the same way, pestered for the lead by Dinoblue. Courtesy of the data, we now know what brings out the best in her and would look for her to return a better Data set when stepped back up in trip again.
When it comes to the possibility of a horse recoiling from a big effort, we need look no further than L’Eau Du Sud, who won the Grade 2 Unibet Kingmaker Novices Chase at Warwick last Saturday. With Sir Gino now out of the Arkle, it would be easy to conclude that only Majborough stands between him and Arkle glory, but maybe the enemy lies within.
Tough race
L’Eau Du Sud was given an aggressive ride by Harry Skelton, defeating the rallying Rubaud by a length. According to the Race IQ data, this race was the most strongly run race of the day at Warwick, with the first two finishing slowly, recording Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) under 100%.
1st L’Eau Du Sud: FSP: 98.52%
2nd Rubaud: FSP: 99.66%
The first seven furlongs were evenly run, but thereafter, the pace increased down the back straight and was unrelenting thereafter. L’Eau Du Sud recorded some fast mid-race sectionals and was never able to get a breather. From furlong eight to furlong 11, he ran the following splits:
F8: 12.83s
F9: 12.82s
F10: 13.02s
F11: 13.85s
These were achieved whilst eyeballing Rubaud, as they took each other on down the back straight. The concluding five furlongs were all slower than these mid-race fractions, as both gradually weakened.
L’Eau Du Sud briefly outpaced Rubaud, as they turned for home and established a clear lead, but the aggressive ride that he got took its toll and he was on fumes through the final two furlongs, as evidenced by the fact that Rubaud gamely rallied in the home straight and was faster than the winner through each of the final three furlongs.
Final three furlong splits:
F14: L’Eau Du Sud: 14.00s / Rubaud: 13.94s
F15: L’Eau Du Sud: 15.65s / Rubaud: 15.06s
F16: L’Eau Du Sud: 15.30s / Rubaud: 14.90s
The data is clear that L’Eau Du Sud was tired through the final quarter mile and may have been beaten in another 100 yards. I would not buy the argument that he was idling in the closing stages, given how hard he had gone down the back straight. Whichever way you look at it, he had a hard race.
His jumping was very good, as it has been on all his starts over fences. He recorded a career best Race IQ jump index of 8.7 out of 10 and was 3.65 lengths superior to Rubaud over his fences. He can clearly jump quickly and efficiently at speed. He is a fast horse, who has already shown that he can run well in an Arkle, but the caveat is that he had a hard race here. It may be that connections wanted him to have a proper race, part of his seasoning and conditioning for Cheltenham, but the spectre of a ‘bounce’ looms large on the horizon after such a tough race.
Whilst all the post-race analysis focused on L’Eau Du Sud, the performance of Rubaud, on just his second start over fences, should not be forgotten. He jumped well with a jump index of 8.2 and showed a tremendous attitude in the closing stages, he has a future over fences given that this performance is at least on a par with his useful hurdles form.
ON what was a relatively quiet week, Lovely Hurling, who won a Maiden hurdle at Naas on Saturday, may sail under the radar, but he should not be underestimated.
On just his second start over hurdles, this horse, who will remain a novice until December, was very impressive in winning by four lengths. He had fluffed his lines on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse, where a bad mistake two out cost him any chance of winning. He was much more fluent here and, above all, impressed with the speed he displayed.
This was a steadily run contest, with Lovely Hurling held up and in 10th place at halfway. He made up his ground effortlessly and finished strongly, recording an FSP of 109.59%. This fast finish enabled him to run down Autoportrait, who had made much of the running. This was all the more impressive, because Autoportrait was not stopping in front, indeed he ran a fast final four furlongs, recording an FSP of 107.34%, yet Lovely Hurling sauntered past him, hardly coming off the bridle.
He was comfortably the fastest horse through the final four furlongs, recording 55.93s compared to the runner-up at 57.45s and, in completing that fast final four furlongs, he was the only horse to dip under 14.00s in the penultimate furlong.
The ease of this success cannot be underestimated, and his jumping was slightly better than on debut, recording a Race IQ jump index of 7.8 compared to 7.6 on his debut. These numbers are indicative of an average round of jumping and there is room for some improvement in this area, but for much of the race he was in amongst horses, not able to have a cut at his hurdles and there is potential for a better round of jumping in the future.
Such was the speed displayed by Lovely Hurling, it is possible that he will be even better on faster ground and, whilst connections are going to consider where his future lies, there must be a chance that the Aintree Grand National meeting is on their radar, perhaps after one more run for experience.