IT is time to put a seal on what happened at Cheltenham. Last week, I looked at the first two days of the Festival and, this week, the final two come under the analytical microscope.
If I had to identify one outstanding performance, I would nominate the Gold Cup win of Inothewayurthinkin, who the data identifies as being a dominant winner.
First, I will dip back into that crazy Champion Hurdle and add to the chaos of that race by stating that, if different decisions had been made, Lossiemouth could already be a two-time winner of the Champion Hurdle.
The Champion Hurdle raised more questions than answers, the most fascinating of which is whether Lossiemouth would have won if she had run. When she won the Mares’ Hurdle last year, I made a data-driven case for her participation in this year’s Champion Hurdle and nothing I saw from her this time has changed my opinion. Surely her chance will come in 2026, but two Mares’ Hurdles could have been two Champion Hurdles.
When she won the Mares’ Hurdle in 2024, her main asset was her speed. On heavy ground, she finished her race strongly recording a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 105.90%, reaching a top speed of 32.68mph.
This year, on ground described as Good to Soft, she finished much faster, with an FSP of 110.80% and reaching a top speed of 37.32mph. This was the fastest finish on the day and only Bambino Fever in the Champion bumper (FSP: 111.08%) and Iknowthewayurthinkin in the Gold Cup (FSP: 111.77%) finished faster.
She was favoured in being able to settle behind the leaders, saving energy for a fast finish, but the data shows just how strongly she delivered when let down.
Efficient hurdling
She jumped just as well as she had the previous year, with a RaceIQ Jump Index of 8.1 compared to 8.2 last year. That efficient hurdling would have kept her competitive in a much more strongly-run Champion Hurdle.
Despite winning, Golden Ace was unable to finish the race strongly, recording an FSP of 97.66% and a maximum speed of 36.36mph. If Lossiemouth had run in the Champion Hurdle, she would not have been able to finish as well as she did in the Mares’ Hurdle because of the much stronger gallop, but a patient ride would have seen her able to utilise her sharp turn of foot, as she has done in all four of her wins at Cheltenham.
Two of those wins were over two miles and, on both occasions, she quickened sharply recording FSPs of 106.79% and 113.345% and that speed would have won her the Champion Hurdle last year, as it would have done this year.
In a race that has garnered so much debate, there has not been any comment on the fact that Lossiemouth could already be a dual Champion Hurdle winner, but hindsight and Data are wonderful things.
I WANTED to touch on what was the most impressive winning performance of the week in the Ryanair Chase. In essence, the data should drive the narrative rather than being used when it suits the narrative. Here, the narrative and the data sit in harmony with the numbers, backing up what your eye told you.
Fact To File jumped superbly with a Jump Index of 8.8 and gained 11.58 lengths on the field. He was the only horse in the race to record a sub-13.00s furlong (12.96s) and he was 1.50s faster than Heart Wood through the final four furlongs.
He is a horse with plenty of speed and has always been a good jumper, as his career Jump Index of 8.5 tells us.
There were no negatives about this performance, but what stands out is his speed and whether he would be as effective at the Gold Cup trip is seemingly something that will be tested next season.
INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN is now two from two at Cheltenham, having won the Kim Muir last year and the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup represents a career best.
It was a performance that made him look tailor-made for a modern day Grand National, but connections seem to have their sights set on a Gold Cup repeat in 2026 and have taken him out of the National.
The analytical temptation is to deal with the defeat of Galopin Des Champs, but the winner deserves plenty of credit.
For a start, he jumped well recording a jump index of 8.0 and, having recorded a career best of 8.7 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Leopardstown, it would be fair to say that his recent improvement has come on the back of his improved jumping.
His career level is an index of 7.9, which is better than the career index for Galopin Des Champs, who has a 7.7.
Modest tempo
Inothewayurthinkin stayed on strongly through the final four furlongs of a Gold Cup that was run at just a modest tempo. His final four furlongs of 54.28s (FSP: 111.77%) was 1.75s faster than Galopin Des Champs, who was slower than the winner through each of those final four furlongs as detailed below.
Inothewayurthinkin
F23: 12.99s
F24: 12.70s
F25: 13.86s (Only horse to run under 14.00s)
F26: 14.73s
Galopin Des Champs
F23: 13.10s
F24: 12.91s
F25: 14.41s
F26: 15.61s
As those numbers show, this was a final half mile dominated by the winner, who was superb at the last fence, losing only 3.00mph through the jumping envelope compared to Galopin Des Champs, who lost 4.56mph.
This was not the leap of a tired horse, but one of a horse who was finishing with running left, as his FSP of 111.77% suggests.
Not only was Inothewayurthinkin fastest through the final four furlongs on the flat, he showed superior speed approaching the last two fences as outlined below.
Inothewayurthinkin
Second Last: 33.77mph
Last Fence: 33.22mph
Galopin Des Champs
Second Last: 33.42mph
Last Fence: 31.82mph
This was a dominant performance from a rapidly improving chaser, who should be given plenty of credit for what he achieved and we should avoid the temptation to conclude that he won because Galopin Des Champs underperformed.
Galopin Des Champs was not at his absolute best on faster ground than last year. He was ridden more patiently than has been the case lately and his jumping was not as good.
He has always been better at his fences when he has daylight in front of him. When he won his first Gold Cup in 2023, he jumped poorly until halfway, then he was pulled to the outside of the field and, thereafter, his jumping improved.
In his two Leopardstown wins this season, he recorded his career best Jump Index scores of 8.0 and 8.7. He was nowhere near as quick and efficient in this year’s Gold Cup with an index of 7.7. That average score caused him to lose -0.24 lengths on the field with his jumping (Inothewayurthinkin +4.94 Lengths).
There is no way of knowing why he did not jump as well as he did on his last two starts, and he managed to win last year with a moderate jump index of 7.3.
However, the answer may be that the ground was significantly faster this year compared to last. The final times were significantly different.
2024: Galopin Des Champs: 7m 5.14s
2025: Inothewayurthinkin: 6m 40.00s
The 25.14s discrepancy may be the evidence we need that things were just happening a little too quickly for Galopin Des Champs. That allied to him meeting a very smart and talented younger chaser saw him short of speed when needed it most.
Make no mistake, Inothewayurthinkin is authentic and, if he had taken up the engagement in the Grand National, he would have been extremely hard to beat. Instead, he will target another Gold Cup, which will be well within his scope.
A STAYING hurdle by name, but a sprint in nature. The pace of the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle was steady leading to a fast finish and a career best from Bob Olinger.
He made smooth progress from the back of the field, before quickening to record one of the highest Finishing Speed Percentages of the meeting (FSP: 110.30%).
He quickened past Teahupoo after the last and that horse was not stopping, but a penultimate furlong of 13.15s and a final furlong of 14.78s (only horse under 15.00s through the final furlong) was enough to see off last year’s champion, who ran just as well in defeat.
There was no exceptional round of jumping in the race, all the runners jumping to type. Bob Olinger recorded an average Jump Index of 6.9, gaining 3.94 lengths on his rivals, with Teahupoo typically making mistakes and recording a figure of 6.1 and losing 2.71 lengths on the field.
When he won the race last year, Teahupoo jumped a bit more efficiently with an index of 6.9. The point is that three-mile hurdlers do not need to be as fast and slick as those who race over two miles and can get away with mistakes.
This trip looked to stretch Bob Olinger’s stamina at Leopardstown over Christmas, but he got away with it here in a steadily run race in drying conditions, where his stamina reserves were not tested.
The Aintree Hurdle would look to be ideal for him, a race in which he was only denied by the narrowest of margins last season
IT is always worth delving into the Race IQ data to look further afield than the high-profile performances at Cheltenham and I have identified a couple of hidden efforts. You may ask how a Grade 1 winner can put up a hidden effort. The answer is when that winner put up the worst jumping performance in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle and still managed to win. Jasmin De Vaux must have a big engine to do what he did whilst jumping so poorly.
He had the lowest Jump Index in the race of 5.1 out of 10 and lost -5.15 lengths on the field with his jumping. To put that in context, he was still able to win by two and a half lengths, even though The Big Westerner, who finished second, was 12.54 lengths better than him over the 12 hurdles.
His jumping has always been his Achilles heel, as his career jump index of 5.0 indicates and, in all his hurdle starts, he has given away lengths to his rivals.
Yet he is now a Grade 1 winner. It will be fascinating to see how he manages a fence, if he goes novice chasing next season.
KARGESE was an emphatic winner of the William Hill County Handicap Hurdle off a lenient handicap mark of 141, but his stable companion Ethical Diamond caught the eye, having been set an impossible task.
The RaceIQ data backs up the impression that he shaped a lot better than his fourth-place finishing position suggested.
He raced in last place before making a move with four furlongs to go. He was still in eighth place with three furlongs to go, but a strong finish took him into fourth place. Only the winner recorded a faster final four furlongs.
Final Four Furlongs:
1st: Kargese 54.99s
4th: Ethical Diamond 55.15s
This strong finish saw him record the highest FSP in the race of 106.31%, but despite this fast finish, he was faced with an impossible task trying to chase down Kargese, who had a positional advantage and was quickening in front of him with his FSP being 106.24%.
Ethical Diamond jumped well, recording a Race IQ jump index of 8.0. He was not as slick as the winner who is a fast jumper (8.8 jump index), but he is clearly a good enough jumper to be able to operate in a competitive handicap scenario.
He needs marking up for this effort and a decent handicap is surely within his grasp.