NEVER were the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune more in evidence than at Cheltenham last Tuesday.

The drama and irony that accompanied the Champion Hurdle was of little import to the Jeremy Scott team, who may have had all the cards fall in their favour, but the form book cares not for conjecture and will always read as Golden Ace having won the 2025 Champion Hurdle by nine lengths.

The finishing times on the first day were ones suggesting that the ground on the chase and hurdles courses was closer to Good than Good to Soft. However, with the sleet and snow that fell on Wednesday morning, conditions and times were slower with the ground riding closer to Soft than Good to Soft. The Cross-Country course was soft, with some horses failing to handle the conditions.

I am looking at some of the more interesting data from the first two days of this year’s Cheltenham Festival, starting with that dramatic Champion Hurdle won by Golden Ace.

The data cannot help us with the fall of Constitution Hill. What is clear is that he has become increasingly prone to taking a chance at his hurdles by taking off too soon.

He did it at the last when he won the Champion Hurdle in 2023, and when he won the Unibet Hurdle in January.

Too confident

This time, he jumped the first four superbly, before being way too confident in his own ability and exiting at the fifth. He seemed none the worse for the fall and will be back.

The fall of State Man, when he had the race in the bag, is not so easily explained. He has never been a good jumper, as his RaceIQ career Jump index of 7.4 out of 10 suggests, yet he had only fallen once before in 18 previous starts.

If there is an explanation, it could lie in the pace of this race, which meant that State Man was getting tired when falling, having chased a strong gallop.

This was a very strongly-run race, courtesy of King Of Kingsfield, who looked to ensure that this was a stern test of stamina, which would be beneficial to stable companion Brighterdaysahead.

Such was the nature of the gallop, all of those who finished the race finished slowly, recording Finishing Speed percentages (FSP) below 100%.

1st: Golden Ace: 97.66%

2nd: Burdett Road 95.44%

3rd: Winter Fog 95.40%

4th: Brighterdaysahead 91.45%

5th: King Of Kingsfield 89.90%

It is difficult to project an FSP onto State Man should he have stood up, but given the strong pace, it would be surprising if he had been able to finish relatively quickly and thus his fall at the last may have been down to tiredness.

Brighterdaysahead was disappointing. She had gone a strong even gallop, when she made all the running to win at the Dublin Racing Festival so impressively. The difference in the Champion Hurdle was that she pressed on, quickening a long way from home meaning that she used up petrol too early in the race, as compared to galloping out strongly and evenly.

That injection of pace came six furlongs from home, as this sectional comparison with Leopardstown shows.

Final Mile Sectional Comparison

Punchestown vs Cheltenham

F9: 14.57s 14.68s

F10: 14.28 14.83s

F11: 14.34s 13.75s (Injection of pace)

F12: 14.35s 12.90s

F13: 14.47 13.30s

F14: 14.13 14.48s

F15: 13.73s 15.55s

F16: 14.90s 20.82s

She may not have been at her best (reported sore by her trainer), but that premature increase in tempo from F11 – F13 in part explains her weaker finish than at Leopardstown.

It would be remiss of me to just mention the vanquished. Golden Ace was tough in victory, confirming the Kingwell form with Burdett Road. She is a mare with plenty of speed, as she showed when winning a slowly run mares’ novice hurdle last year (FSP: 114.16%).

Back over two miles in the Kingwell and here, she showed that she can grind out a victory, if necessary, as indicated by her FSPs of 97.74% and 97.66%.

Her jumping was in line with what she has achieved so far in her career, with a jump index of 7.6 for the race, compared to a career record of 7.4.

THE Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle was run at much more of an even tempo than the Champion Hurdle and, consequently, produced a final time that was 4.08s faster. It is not unknown for the Supreme to produce a better time than the Champion, but not usually with such an extreme discrepancy.

Kopek Des Bordes was rated perfectly by Paul Townend recording an FSP of 99.86%. He raced close to the pace, getting to the front with three furlongs to go and surviving a last fence blunder to see off William Munny.

His final four furlongs were recorded as being 2.30s faster than Golden Ace. Courtesy of his final fence mistake, William Munny was able to record a slightly faster final furlong of 16.01s compared to 16.28s for Kopek Des Bordes, but he could not reel him in.

The final flight gave favourite-backers their only moment of doubt. Kopek Des Bordes jumped adequately throughout, recording a race jump index of 6.9, which tells us that he did not jump as well as he did at Punchestown, where he recorded an index of 8.0.

He averaged a speed loss of 4.02mph when jumping the first seven hurdles, then at the last, he lost 5.6mph, briefly giving William Munny a chance, but he recovered his entry speed into the hurdle very quickly (0.34s) and stayed on strongly.

Kopek Des Bordes is still a raw novice, who is still a work in progress. It is testament to his innate ability that he has been able to win all his starts over hurdles, overcoming adversity on each occasion.

He jumped poorly on his debut, pulled too hard on his second start and survived a bad blunder here. A much bigger performance is within his grasp.

THERE was some more interesting data on Wednesday, where poor jumping saw two odds-on favourites taste defeat.

The highest profile of those was Jonbon, who fluffed his lines yet again at Cheltenham in the Bet MGM Queen Mother Champion Chase.

A poignant and emotional success for Marine Nationale, who was one of Michael O’Sullivan’s two Festival winners, by way of a further reminder of the sad loss of Michael, his other Festival winner Jazzy Matty also won on the day, taking the Grand Annual.

Data is not required to identify the seminal moment in the race for Jonbon supporters. It was clearly his mistake at the ninth fence that derailed his chance of winning and it is to his credit that he was able to run on after the last into second place.

The race was run at an even gallop, courtesy of Quilixios, Solness and Enurgemene. Marine Nationale was patiently ridden and finished with an FSP of 101.30% and, as such, was the only horse to finish the race relatively strongly, the rest of the field failing to achieve a number above 100.

His final four furlongs of 59.07s was 2.64s faster than Jonbon, who appeared to finish strongly, but was staying on past tired rivals.

Not jump well

As far as jumping was concerned, Marine Nationale jumped adequately, with a Race IQ Jump Index of 7.5, slightly lower than his career Index of 7.8, Jonbon on the other hand did not jump well.

Much focus will be on the race-ending mistake he made, but that does not tell the whole tale of his race.

That ninth fence saw him lose 8.93mph (Race IQ Jump Index 2.1) and it cost him 3.45 lengths on the field. Clearly in a strongly run two-mile race, such a loss of momentum is race-ending, but overall, his jumping was poor.

He lost lengths jumping on the field at nine of the fences and, without factoring in the ninth fence, Marine Nationale was 13.298 lengths better than Jonbon overall and only 3.01 of those lengths can be attributed to the ninth fence.

Even without that mistake, Jonbon did not give his running. Quilixios on the other hand ran a blinder and was unlucky not to be second.

He had jumped well in the race, gaining ground on the field at 8 of the 12 fences he jumped. He was in the process of running a career best and did not deserve to fall.

THE odds-on favourite Ballyburn was a disappointment for Willie Mullins in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, but the race was a triumph for him, with Lecky Watson ensuring the spoils returned to Closutton.

The race was steadily run, with all the finishers able to save energy through the race for a relatively strong finish.

1st: Lecky Watson: 108.52%

2nd: Stellar Story: 107.70%

3rd: Better Days Ahead: 107.20%

4th: Gorgeous Tom: 106.14%

5th: Ballyburn: 106.93%

6th: Dancing City 100.04%

Lecky Watson raced close to the pace in third and got into a decent rhythm, recording a career best jump index of 7.7. He gained 2.88 lengths on the field with his jumping in a race where most of his rivals jumped poorly.

He went an average speed of 27.6mph over the first 10 fences and then was able to record an average of 30.9mph over the final three, thereby finishing the race off in good style.

There will be more to come from the winner, who is unbeaten in three starts over fences. For all of those wins, it is his speed that has impressed, recording fast finishes in all of them, as indicated by the FSPs he has achieved.

Lecky Watson Chasing FSP’s

Naas: 112.58%

Punchestown: 110.10%

Cheltenham: 108.52%

As for Ballyburn, the story is a very similar one to that which we saw in the Arkle with Jonbon. He made a bad mistake at the fifth fence, losing 6.17mph, which lost him his position and momentum, but that was not the sole reason for his defeat. It was his overall jumping performance that ensured defeat, rather than that one mistake.

He recorded a Jump Index of 5.8 out of 10, which is the lowest of his career (previous scores: 6.7, 6.1 and 7.4) and gave away 15.61 lengths to the field with his jumping.

He has never looked a natural over the larger obstacles and, even when winning at Punchestown, he lost 2.82 lengths on the field with his fencing, losing an average of 5.22mph at every fence through the jumping envelope. His speed loss here was comparable and in stark contrast to Lecky Watson.

Average Speed loss at fences

Lecky Watson -3.6mph

Ballyburn -5.2mph

Willie Mullins blamed the change of tactics for Ballyburn’s poor display, citing that they may drop him in trip now and let him bowl along, rather than ride him patiently.

Whatever the tactics, the data is clear and has been for all of his starts over fences, that unless he dramatically improves his jumping of a fence, he is going to struggle at this discipline.

A tough first couple of days for punters, where the old adage that you have to jump to win was as relevant as ever.