MUCH-DEBATED changes to increase the competitiveness of the Cheltenham Festival will soon get their first airing, so how are those races shaping up with just 24 days to go until the starter raises his flag?

Well, there are currently seven odds-on favourites at non-runner-no-bet prices for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, though that could easily become five if Brighterdaysahead (1/2 for the Mares’ Hurdle) takes up her Champion Hurdle option. That would put pressure on Constitution Hill’s current 1/2 odds (non-runner-no-bet) in the day-one feature.

The remaining handful of odds-on shots in line for the meeting are Kopek Des Bordes (5/6 in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle), Majborough (4/7 in the Arkle after Sir Gino’s defection this week), Teahupoo (5/6 in the Stayers’ Hurdle, though there is some even-money with non-runner-no-bet terms out there), Galopin Des Champs (1/2 in the Cheltenham Gold Cup) and Jonbon (as short as 8/11 for the Champion Chase).

For context, there ended up being seven odds-on favourites at last year’s Festival, and we still have time for any number of changes to what will be the final fields. Long story short, those trying to gather a few short-priced runners together for the purpose of Cheltenham multiples still have the scope to do so, despite the programme changes.

Backing odds-on shots won’t be for everyone. Rowing in behind one at a skimpy price in what should be the highest quality races of the year can require a little bravery - and perhaps no race has tried the patience of such punters like the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Two-mile test

Yes, Altior did manage to collect at 4/11 in 2019, while Sprinter Sacre delivered at 1/4 in 2013, but there has been more than enough heartache to counteract those odds-on victories.

The two shortest-priced runners this century at the Cheltenham Festival both ran in the Champion Chase and both bombed out. Douvan (2017) and El Fabiolo (2024) were sent off at 2/9 but never managed to run their races, with Susannah Ricci’s star reportedly suffering a stress fracture of the pelvis when finishing seventh and last year’s market leader pulled up after a mistake at the fifth.

Aside from Douvan and El Fabiolo, there have been nine other horses sent off at 2/5 or shorter at the meeting this century. Eight won. The only runner to be beaten in that sample? Defi Du Seuil in the 2020 Champion Chase as 2/5 favourite. He ran no sort of race and only beat one rival home.

That particular renewal also had a sting for many Champion Chase ante-post backers, with hot favourite Chacun Pour Soi pulled out on the morning of the race with a foot abscess.

The carnage for shortie supporters in this race doesn’t end there, though. Chacun Pour Soi returned a year later as 8/13 favourite, looked set to collect when hitting 2/13 in-running but faded to third behind shock winner Put The Kettle On.

Un De Sceaux was 4/6 to provide Willie Mullins with a first win in the race in 2016 but couldn’t get the better of a back-to-form Sprinter Sacre (5/1), Master Minded was beaten nearly 10 lengths in fourth when 4/5 for the 2010 edition - the same odds as Sizing Europe was when turned over in 2012. A shemozzle with Finian’s Rainbow when bypassing the final fence added further drama to that particular defeat.

Big-name defeats

As if that wasn’t enough, two further 5/6 shots in the Champion Chase, Moscow Flyer (2004) and Shishkin (2022) failed to complete when unseating and pulled up respectively. Well Chief fell at evens in the 2007 renewal and Flagship Uberalles was only third at 11/10 in a 2000 thriller.

All told, there have been 15 horses sent off at 11/10 or shorter in the Queen Mother since 2000 and only four managed to win - a level-stakes loss of €9.02. In fact, only 53% managed to win or be placed. I’ll be the first to say that I view Jonbon as the absolute standout two-mile chaser in the business right now. Theoretically, he should win the 2025 running at odds-on.

However, when you factor in that the only three defeats of his career have come at Cheltenham, he’s winless at the Festival, and the possibility that Solness and Il Est Francais could set a ferocious pace to leave no hiding place over the minimum distance, the prospect of getting stuck in to Jonbon at skimpy odds doesn’t sound so appealing.

Given how history has treated many Queen Mother hotpots this century, I certainly won’t turn my nose up at anyone siding with a value pick in this year’s race. There are 28 chances to back a winner at Cheltenham and I don’t expect I’ll be trying this race as one of them.

A value betting angle to watch for with Its On The Line

ONE of the toughest defeats for favourite backers

to swallow at last year’s Cheltenham Festival was saved for the closing exchanges on Friday when Its On The Line narrowly failed to collect in the St. James’s Place Festival Hunters’ Chase.

It was also a heartbreaker for Derek O’Connor as he attempted to achieve the full set of amateur race wins in the same week, having struck in the National Hunt Chase (Corbetts Cross) and Kim Muir (Inothewayurthinkin) in the days previous.

Despite starting his current season with two defeats at Down Royal and Naas - in comparison to wins in both of those races last term - Emmet Mullins’ strong stayer remains priced between 11/4 and 4/1 at the top of the market for his Cheltenham Festival target.

He looks to be trained to peak in the spring and last year was one of the best backed horses on the day of the race - sent off 11/8 ( from 9/4). As we all know, the J.P. McManus-owned eight-year-old went on to set the record straight with wins at Aintree and Punchestown, adding to the pain of that Cheltenham near miss.

Given he’s got the type of recognisable profile that may well make him popular with punters trying to end the Festival on a high in the Hunters’ Chase next month, it could be worth considering a specific betting angle with Its On The Line through his style of racing.

Running style

In every single one of his seven wins under rules, he has traded at a bigger price in running than his industry SP or Betfair Exchange SP.

When an 11/4 shot at Tipperary back in 2022, and when 6/1 in the 2023 Punchestown Champion Hunters Chase, he touched a shade above 10/1 in running before pulling out all the stops to win.

There have been much more dramatic cases of this in recent times, however.

His victory over Ferns Lock at Down Royal last season came as an 11/2 shot, though he touched 43/1 on the exchanges in running. Most spectacularly, when sent off the 8/13 favourite at Naas last spring, he managed to get the better of Billaway while trading at a whopping 429/1 in running.

As for his last two wins, he was 3/1 at Aintree last season and hit close to 11/2 mid-race, while at the 2024 Punchestown Festival he reached a high of 12/1, having been sent off the 6/4 market leader.

Rather than taking the current odds of around 3/1 with a whole month to go until Cheltenham, I’d argue it could instead be more worthwhile to seek a bigger price in running on the day given his history of trading at larger odds.

If there is one caveat to this theory, it’s found in his last two appearances in the Festival Hunters’ Chase, though. Its On The Line traded as low as 1/2 in this contest back in 2023 and an agonising 1/7 last year before being beaten on both occasions.

Still, on the balance of evidence, he looks likely to come off the bridle and give in-play backers a chance at better value than his SP.

As a side note, both of those Cheltenham defeats came in cheekpieces, which were left off for his subsequent wins at Aintree and Punchestown last season.

It will be interesting to note whether connections opt for headgear again this year.