CHELTENHAM’S annual Festival handicap weights reveal always brings with it a fair deal of intrigue, and that was especially the case this week given the 2025 meeting features three extra handicap races compared to last year.
Qualification for these races is now also tougher. Horses now need to have run four times (from three) over fences in order to line up in a non-novice handicap chase, while horses must make five appearances (from four) over hurdles in order to run in a senior handicap hurdle at the Festival.
The key information in the weights being published is discovering how the Irish-trained horses are rated in Britain, considering the BHA handicapping team assign their own marks for Irish horses rather than following the Irish handicappers’ figures. In almost all cases, National Hunt horses trained in Ireland will have to overcome tougher handicap marks in Britain.
Broadly speaking, the handicap races – especially handicap chases – at times made for tough sledding for the visitors 12 months ago.
Had Inothewayurthinkin been given 1lb higher in Britain last year, therefore ruling him out of the Kim Muir, the home team would have won every handicap chase, while it was only in the closing exchanges that the Irish made a real fightback in the handicap hurdles on Friday.
But for a masterful Paul Townend ride on Absurde in the County Hurdle, Dan Skelton would have brought up a handicap hat-trick with L’Eau Du Sud. In fairness, Lark In The Mornin (Boodles) and Better Days Ahead (Martin Pipe) did come out on top in Irish-dominated finishes to their respective races.
Challenging chases
The Pertemps Final was a British annihilation, however, with the first six home were all trained in the UK, while five of the first six home in the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase, and three of the first four in the Ultima, were British-trained too. Don’t forget a GB one-two in the Grand Annual, for good measure.
Has there been any noticeable change in how the British assessors have treated the raiding party for 2025? The broad averages suggest it hasn’t gotten any easier, at least.
Last year, at this same weights stage, the average difference in Irish and British ratings for those with published marks was 2.9lb higher for non-juvenile hurdlers, 2.3lb higher for handicap chasers and 2.9lb higher for juvenile hurdlers.
The headline takeouts from this year’s equivalent averages are that non-juvenile handicap hurdlers are now typically 3.8lb higher (from 2.9lb) in Britain than is the case in Ireland and juvenile hurdlers are up an average of 4.5lb (from 2.9lb) versus their Irish marks.
As for determining a handicap chase average for 2025, my approach to drawing a comparison here involved excluding horses whose only Cheltenham entry came in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase for two reasons. One: this race was not scheduled to be a handicap last year so there isn’t a direct comparison for horses of this nature. Two: the British handicapping team takes a very different view to their Irish counterparts when dealing with cross country/banks racing form, which could easily throw the overall handicap chasing average figure out of kilter. A prime example of this is Denis Murphy’s Ladies Cup winner/La Touche runner-up Three By Two. She holds a mark of 95 with the Irish handicapper, who treats her banks form as separate from her standard chase rating. The same mare has a BHA mark of 127 for the Cross Country at Cheltenham.
When leaving out those whose only entry came in the Cross Country, the average difference between Irish and British handicap chase ratings was an increase of 2.2lb.
That is almost identical to the 2.3lb differential last year - when British horses dominated the handicap chases. With three extra handicap chases on the schedule this year, could that lead to further opportunities for British runners to prosper at the Festival? Only time will tell, but it is a storyline well worth monitoring through the week.
OF Ireland’s four handicap winners at the meeting last year, two were running off just 2lb higher than their home ratings: Lark In The Mornin (+2lb to 122 in Britain) and Inothewayurthinkin (+2lb to 145 in Britain).
Absurde had no published mark in Ireland at the time so a comparison couldn’t be drawn, while Better Days Ahead was upped 4lb to 140.
How did this year’s main market fancies fare in the 2025 weights reveal?
There are no single-figure priced runners in the Ultima, so the Boodles is the first starting point.
Gavin Cromwell’s Total Look was hit particularly hard, 7lb higher in Britain on a mark of 132 (125 in Ireland). Others who got away more lightly were Lady Vega Allen (+4lb to 136), Naturally Nimble (+3lb to 138) and top-weight Willy De Houelle (+2lb to 140).
Now Is The Hour has been on the shortlists of many for a long time in the revised National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Chase (also entered in the Kim Muir) and he’s up 4lb to 139 in Britain. That’s higher than the average for a non-cross country handicap chaser at the meeting (2.2lb). In the same race, Willie Mullins’ Captain Cody is up 5lb to 140.
J.P. McManus’ Kopeck De Mee, set to make his first start for Willie Mullins in either the Coral Cup, County Hurdle or Martin Pipe, has been rated on his French form so isn’t applicable to Irish comparisons, and Wodhooh’s last appearance came in Britain so there isn’t an IHRB rating on file for her.
That said, her new mark of 141 is 11lb higher than the mark off which she beat Joyeuse at Cheltenham in December.
As mentioned above, some caution is advised with making direct comparisons in the Cross Country division but Stumptown is 8lb higher in Britain on 157, Galvin has no current Irish rating published and Vanillier is up 3lb to 147. Firefox has handicap entries for the Grand Annual, Jack Richards Novices’ and TrustATrader Plate, and the British assessor has only nudged him up 1lb to 150 versus his domestic rating. The same applies to The King Of Prs in the Grand Annual, up 1lb to 138.
Master treatment
There is a strong raiding party in the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase on Thursday. Nurburgring (143) and Answer To Kayf (145) are both up 3lb, while Asian Master escaped with only 1lb higher on 144 and No Flies On Him (134) is up 2lb.
In the Pertemps, The Wallpark has no published Irish mark but got handed 152 in Britain, and last weekend’s Naas scorer Will The Wise, who received an 8lb hike for that success, got an additional 3lb from the BHA to take him to 134.
Sa Majeste, prominent in the Kim Muir market, is only 2lb higher than at home on a GB rating of 142.
As for the County Hurdle, last year’s winner Absurde is up 2lb in Britain to 146. That takes him to 8lb higher than when scoring by a length here 12 months ago. Lark In The Mornin (132) is also rated 2lb higher in Britain than Ireland, and 10lb higher than the mark off which he won last year’s Boodles. Likewise, Kargese’s Irish mark only sees an increase of 2lb to 141. McLaurey was raised 13lb by the Irish handicapper to 133 for his Dublin Racing Festival success and has 3lb more to deal with in Britain on 136.
Finally, Ethical Diamond looks a massive player in the County too, but a 10-length maiden hurdle win last time could prove costly to his chances. A 6lb rise with the Irish handicapper seemed a strong move, and the BHA assessor has tacked on an extra 6lb to bring him up to 143. Far from ideal.