FOR all that there has been an increase in the number of handicaps at this year’s Cheltenham Festival, there is still no shortage of odds-on hotpots for multiple-backers to combine over the biggest four days in National Hunt racing.

As punters have found out, painfully at times, however, it can be the case that at least one of the so-called ‘good things’ lets the rest of the bunch down. Apologies to those still in recovery for mentioning it, but this Cheltenham Festival marks 10 years since Annie Power’s stunning final-flight exit as 1/2 favourite in the Mares’ Hurdle, shortly after Douvan (2/1), Un De Sceaux (4/6) and Faugheen (4/5) had all collected earlier on the card. It was a monumental sucker punch for all involved.

Back to 2025, though, and - at the time of writing - one in every four races at this year’s Festival have odds-on favourites. Multiple-minded punters will be weighing up the merits of the possible magnificent seven of Kopek Des Bordes (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle), Majborough (Arkle), Lossiemouth (Mares’ Hurdle), Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle), Jonbon (Champion Chase), Teahupoo (Stayers’ Hurdle) and Galopin Des Champs (Gold Cup).

As part of our Cheltenham jury in this week’s Festival supplement in The Irish Field, six racing personalities were asked to nominate their most bombproof banker in the championship races. With the exception of Jonbon advocate Noel Chance, the responses were pretty unanimous.

Denis O’Regan: “Galopin Des Champs is the banker. No question.”

Paul Carberry: “I’d be completely shocked if Galopin Des Champs doesn’t win his third Gold Cup, so he’s definitely one for multis.”

Jess Stafford: “Nothing is an absolute God-given certainty for me in a jumps race. However, Galopin Des Champs has looked bulletproof at Cheltenham the last two years and the Gold Cup is a weaker race than last year too.”

Ronan Groome: “It has to be Galopin Des Champs. I am loath to be with a horse at his price taking on 22 fences and three and a quarter miles of Cheltenham terrain, but this Gold Cup is easily the worst of the three he has taken on.”

Emma Nagle: “I don’t want to jinx him, but Galopin Des Champs is the banker of the meeting for me. Barring bad luck, it’s hard to see anything troubling him.”

Strong favourite

Those sentiments suggest odds of 1/2 might even be appealing for the hat-trick seeking champion. After all, Arkle was sent off 1/10 for his third Gold Cup triumph. There has been talk of a possible small field for this year’s Blue Riband event, yet Arkle only beat three rivals in his first two Gold Cups and four in his third. Different times indeed.

Nevertheless, what an opportunity this could be next Friday for Willie Mullins’ superstar to establish legendary status, and for Paul Townend to surpass Pat Taaffe as the most successful jockey in Cheltenham Gold Cup history with a fifth victory. For those combining a few of the seven shorties in trebles and accumulators, it sounds like Galopin Des Champs also could be a key runner for them too.

The record of odds-on favourites at the Cheltenham Festival since the turn of the millennium is an interesting little case study, and there appears to be a clear split in the success rate of one race category over another.

Firstly, from the year 2000 to 2024, the overall strike rate for odds-on favourites at the Festival is a not-exactly-bulletproof 55%. Backing each of the 69 runners that were shorter than evens would have resulted in 38 winners, but, crucially, a loss of €7.61 to a €1 stake on each of them.

The differential in success rates appears, however, when breaking down the record of novices who were sent off at those short prices, versus runners in senior company. You might expect that the most risky hotpots for punters to row in behind would indeed be the more inexperienced category, but the figures paint a much different picture.

In that 25-year sample period, seven out of nine novice hurdlers sent off at odds-on have managed to win - a 78% strike rate. The only two to be beaten were Dunguib in the 2011 Supreme and Brighterdaysahead in last year’s Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.

Novice joy

As for novice chasers, 10 of the 14 have won since 2000 - again, a healthy 71% success rate. For good measure, the only one to be beaten when completing the course was Mighty Potter in the 2023 Turners Novices’ Chase, and the strike rate should be even better given Galopin Des Champs’ shock fall at the last in the same race a year earlier with the race at his mercy.

Even with the risks attached to inexperienced horses, where the waters begin to get most treacherous for odds-on backers at the meeting is actually in senior-level races.

All told, the record of odds-on favourites in non-novice races at the meeting is much lower at 47%. The level-stakes loss of €10.63 is disappointing, compared to the €2.55 profit for backing all odds-on novice hurdlers blindly, for example. Over hurdles, non-novice races see a slightly improved 60% strike rate (15 winners from 25 runners), but where the figures give most concern is in non-novice chase races. Odds-on shots have only won 30% of the time in this category (just six winners from 20 runners), with a level-stakes loss of €10.83.

Those figures aren’t attractive for the likes of Jonbon and Galopin Des Champs, though we are dealing with two top-drawer operators in their respective divisions.

When breaking down where those 14 senior chasing defeats have come at the Festival, two were in the Gold Cup (Kauto Star’s second to Denman in 2008 and fall in 2010), two were in the Ryanair Chase (second-placed Voy Por Ustedes in 2009 and Un De Sceaux in 2018) and one came in the Cross Country (Tiger Roll’s second in 2020).

Champion carnage

By far, though, the race where the most damage was done was the Champion Chase. There have been nine odds-on defeats there this century.

As flagged up in this column following the Clarence House, Jonbon is the absolute standout performer on the two-mile chasing scene, but it must carry some concern that, of the 15 horses sent off at 11/10 or shorter in the Queen Mother since 2000, only four managed to win.

In fact, the two shortest-priced runners this century at the Cheltenham Festival both ran in the Champion Chase and both bombed out. Douvan (2017) and El Fabiolo (2024) were sent off at 2/9, but never managed to run their races.

Aside from Douvan and El Fabiolo, eight out of the other nine horses sent off at 2/5 or shorter at the Cheltenham Festival this century have won. Where was the only runner beaten in that sample running? You guessed it - the Champion Chase. Defi Du Seuil never fired at 2/5 in the 2020 renewal.

Several other top names have been beaten in the Queen Mother like Moscow Flyer (5/6), Shishkin (5/6), Master Minded (4/5), Sizing Europe (4/5), Chacun Pour Soi (8/13), Un De Sceaux (4/6), Well Chief (evens) and Flagship Uberalles (11/10). Jonbon should win on ratings and all known form, but it hasn’t been a simple assignment for favourites.

Alan Hansen famously remarked on Match Of The Day back in 1995 that “you can’t win anything with kids”, regarding Manchester United’s youthful side at the time. That slogan aged poorly, and Cheltenham history suggests that the youthful novices are the safest way to go when building your multiples next week. May the odds be ever in your favour.