I’M interested to see how new handicap qualifications will affect how leading trainers operate at Cheltenham and there is little doubt that the requirement to have five runs over hurdles to qualify for the open handicaps at the Festival will hamper Willie Mullins, whose novice hurdlers tend to start later than most and are therefore harder to mould to the current requirements.

Mullins has trained eight handicap hurdle winners at the Festival since 2011 who have had fewer than five previous runs. Presumably it’s his ability to produce such horses to plunder lenient marks which has helped prompt this change in the BHA handicapping policy.

No doubt Mullins will adapt and it’s interesting that he has Kopeck De Mee entered up in three of the handicap hurdles at Cheltenham next month despite the horse – who ran five times over hurdles in France for previous trainer Joel Boisnard – keeping his powder entirely dry for new connections.

That horse has form that makes him look very well treated if his French mark (equivalent of BHA 138) is used as has largely been the case in the past. Should he get an adjustment in line with the BHA’s previous treatment of Irish-trained handicappers, then questions will rightly be asked given he doesn’t have an IHRB mark to adjust.

That looks like a deliberate ploy to stymie the British handicapper by connections of Kopeck De Mee, and he’s sure to attract plenty of attention when the weights are officially unveiled. I can’t see how the handicapper can justify changing his mark without losing face, and if he’s allotted 138, then it’s a matter of Mullins confirming what race he’s going for before a stampede starts.

Methodical

Kopeck De Mee is very much an outlier in the Mullins camp, but very much fits the modus operandi of the stable, whereas Gordon Elliott tends to get his horses out a month or so before Willie, and is able to get an extra run in much easier as a result.

He has an excellent record in handicap hurdles, winning 13 at the Festival since 2011, 10 of whom would have qualified under current rules. Elliott tends to ease off around Christmas with those he has lined up for Cheltenham, with fewer representatives at the Dublin Racing Festival than Mullins, and he likes to find a prep race for his handicappers around three to five weeks before the Festival.

To illustrate, he has had seven handicap winners from just 47 runners at Cheltenham who had their prep race in that timeframe, and backers would have been £1108.50 ahead backing all of them to a tenner stake at SP.

It shouldn’t surprise that all seven of those winners mentioned ran well on their final qualifying run, with all of them finishing fifth or better, albeit with only two successful. It’s notable that Elliott has left quite a few Cheltenham possibles unqualified until close to the deadline and I would suggest that those horses are well worth consideration as a result. I’ve highlighted the hurdles qualification, but the same rule of thumb applies to chasers, with the number of runs required rising from three to four.

Top of the list of late qualifiers is Will Do, who improved on his earlier efforts over fences when finishing an excellent second to stablemate Fortunedefortunata in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown, with that effort belatedly qualifying him for the National Hunt Chase. Racing off an IHRB rating of 126 there, he’s liable to be 7-10lb higher on the BHA scale after that run and that should seem him creep in at the foot of the weights for the three-and-three-quarter-mile contest. Stablemate Cleatus Poolaw failed to qualify for that race by finishing sixth, and is unlikely to get into the Kim Muir, for which he did qualify by having his fourth chase start.

Enhancing chances

Of the handicap hurdles, Elliott has won the Fred Winter with Flaxen Flare (25/1), Aramax (15/2), and Jazzy Matty (18/1) so it’s clear his runners merit maximum respect whatever the ante-post market says. Wendrock is the obvious first-string this year despite flopping in the Spring Juvenile, but Chortal – who sports the infamous Labaik silks – bids to enhance his chance at Fairyhouse on Saturday, needing an improved effort to get into the weights.

Firefox qualified for the Grand Annual when finishing third in the Irish Arkle at the DRF, as did runner-up Touch Me Not, although the latter will surely run in the Arkle itself having been the only one who could live with Majborough at Leopardstown.

Dee Capo had his fourth run when failing to stay three miles in the Finlay Ford at Naas Novice Chase at the end of January and will benefit from dropping back in trip in either the Plate or the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap – I always favour the open contest for experienced novices.

Patter Merchant would be the last to qualify for Cheltenham if finishing in the first four of the final Pertemps qualifier at Naas on Sunday and a win there would guarantee the lowly-rated gelding would earn a place in the final field.

His mark currently translates to around 130 on the BHA scale, and he could do with a win to ensure that he doesn’t miss the cut-off.

I’ve concentrated on Gordon Elliott because he’s shown time and time again that he can prepare a handicapper for Cheltenham, and while the market tends to know when one from Closutton is likely to win, the Elliott winners have come at all odds, with winners in recent years at 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1. He has kept his head down this year and I’ve heard it said that he doesn’t have the strength he used to in terms of his squad for Cheltenham, but I’d take that with a considerable pinch of salt.

Personally, I’m convinced that this will be a bumper year for Gordon in terms of his win and place haul, and I don’t think it’s a crazy thought…