THE jumps season motors on with this week the eyes being cast towards the first week in April and one of jumping’s biggest occasions with the announcing of the Grand National weights.
The modern Grand National has caused a bit of a head swivel in looking for the likely winners. In the days up to just 10 years ago, it was a case of ‘look at the 11st mark and go downwards from there’. Now, the race is a lesser test, and while there is still a random element – someone backed Corach Rambler to win last year along with there to be no casualites at the first fence!
But today it’s ‘look at the 11st mark and make a case for who is above that’, and look out also for experienced chasers coming into the race in some form or prepped for the race.
Instead of a sea of blue, the top of the ante-post market is a sea of green and gold!
Inothewayurthinkin, I Am Maximus and Iroko are front and centre with Meetingofthewaters and Perceval Legallois not too far away..
There’ll be no changes to the top-weight this year, so we know where we are on that side. I Am Maximus was an impressive winner last year, he’s been targeted at the race again. Even if he wasn’t in the best form, you’ll be sure he’ll be there as it keeps the other McManus fancy Inothewayurthinkin on 11st 5lb as opposed to 11st 8lb.
In the Racing Post Tom Segal described Inothewayurthinkin as ‘a virtual carbon copy of last year’s winner - he’s not a good jumper of fences but is an incredibly strong stayer’. That was the impression on his two wins last year, particularly at Aintree where he looked in trouble two out but ran on strongest.
Negative
L’Homme Presse is probably the best staying chaser in Britain. But he surely runs at Cheltenham which is a negative and particularly this season, with the closer spacing of the two Festivals. Plus he’ll have run four times in proper races since the end of December which is a lot these days. It’s also hard to see Bravemansgame relishing this test.
For all that this may have been a long-term plan, I can’t have Iroko at the odds, with so much of his form over shorter distances.
A look back at recent winners may well justify looking for those ‘obvious’ horses, the last two winners being standouts on form and only Noble Yeats in the last seven years is the one that failed to catch bookies eyes, going off at 50/1. Remove him and the biggest-priced winner was One For Arthur at 14/1 in 2017, and he couldn’t be described as being too far under the radar. So six of the last seven have been 14/1 or shorter.
So, to the ‘likely lads’…
You can’t get away from Meetingofthewaters and Perceval Legallois, though the former found it too much last season.
Intense Raffles has the right profile having won the Irish Grand National last year, as does Thyestes winner and the favourite for that Irish National, Nick Rockett, who was also Paul Townend’s pick of the Mullins runners in the Bet365 Gold Cup. He’d get my number one pick.
If you fancy Nick Rockett, you have to give the Thyestes runner-up Velvet Elvis some attention but his trainer’s comments this week give concern. “I really, really fancied Velvet Elvis going there and to this day I don’t know why he was the first one off the bridle. It’s a concern.” The well-fancied Panda Boy was reported not to have taken to Aintree occasion last year.
It’s hard to fancy horses who may also be running in the Gold Cup, just three weeks before it, the case with Monty’s Star.
The Real Whacker (11st 4lb) may go the Cheltenham too but he is a better horse than the 66/1 available indicates.
Stay Away Fay (66/1) off 10st 9lb would also be interesting but he needs to show some of his old form first.
Interesting
One rather interesting horse is Envoi Allen. The now 11-year-old brings class to the race, even if that is rewarded with 11st 8lb. His trainer said the Ryanair is his Festival race but at least that’s an easier option to the Gold Cup. Why enter here if it was not a thought in the minds of connections. He’s a careful jumper who travels well in his races and, given a patient ride, could well figure. There’s not a lot left for him next season.
He is unlikely to win a Ryanair if some of the younger horses line up in it so maybe a final fling in the National might still be an option. We had two 11-year-olds and a 10-year-old, all carrying over 11st in last year’s first four. I think 66/1 is not a reflection of his ability.
WHILE the ‘let’s follow the French’ arguments on National Hunt horses will continue, you can’t dispute that the 2025 Festival novice hurdles have a more pleasing look to the ante-post markets if you are keeping faith in producing traditional Irish-breds. A few of the leading contenders are by departed sires - Kayf Tara, Flemensfirth and Westerner but there’s Jukebox Jury, Snow Sky and Workforce to give encouragement.
Take out Kopek Des Bordes and Salvador Mundi, and the Supreme has Romeo Coolio and Workahead well to the fore. The Turners looks bound for either Final Demand or The New Lion while The Yellow Clay, The Big Westerner, Ballybow and Wingmen dominate the Albert Barlett. Sixandahalf and Maughreen head the Mares’ Novice with Only By Night and Bioluminescence as novices in the Mares’ Chase. It’s not too bad for the next generation of jumpers when we include how the Champion Bumper is developing with Copacabana, Bambino Fever and Windbeneathmywings holding forth. All is not lost in keeping the French at bay!
Chris Varney@ChrisVarney1985
The time for racing authorities to worry is when proper racing fans lose interest, and in the case of the Grand National, many couldn’t care for it nowadays. It’s just been a sad plastic handicap since 2013. Who wants to see 20 in contention at the last in a 4m+ steeplechase.
Rob Dixon@RobDix12
The modification of the race & fences is the reason, it`s made it a more attractive proposition for the “classier” horses! It used to be a real test of jumping & stamina! Doesn`t have the same buzz about it at all now sadly!
Nick Goff@nickgoff79
One of the best men I’ve ever had the fortune to know. Spoke to him lots in recent months. The way he dealt with such a cruel illness, so unfairly early in life, was in keeping with the class with which he dealt with everything and is testament to what a great man he was. RIP Joe
[on the death of former BHA Chairman Joe Saumarez Smith]