IT seems rather strange to be writing a column that involves data analysis of what happens out on the track, after the untimely and terribly sad loss of Michael O’Sullivan.
He was a fine young man, with a tremendous future ahead of him and my condolences go out to his family, friends and all who knew him well.
In life and on the track, he was a man who always got the fractions right.
Data-rich performances and Cheltenham Festival clues were thin on the ground last week, but Paul Nicholls will have been delighted with the performance of Pic D’Orhy in the Ascot Chase and, likewise, Jeremy Scott will be pleased to get Golden Ace back in the winner’s enclosure at Wincanton in the Kingwell Hurdle and both of those are the focus of my attention this week.
Pic D’Orhy has won 12 races for the Paul Nicholls team and four of those have been at Ascot, with this race comprising two of those wins. There was no hiding place in the Betfair Ascot Chase, with Harry Cobden seizing the initiative and setting a strong gallop.
This aggressive ride took his rivals out of their comfort zones early on and ensured a comfortable 10-length win. He recorded a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 98.80%, which showed him to have been rated evenly through the race, showing sustained speed.
This was a stronger finishing effort than all his rivals, all of whom were slower than him through the final four furlongs, having been unable to live with the strong pace.
Final Four Furlong Splits and FSP’s
1st: Pic D’Orhy: 60.59s / 98.80%
2nd: Corbetts Cross: 61.60s / 97.86%
3rd: Blue Lord: 61.36s / 98.42%
4th: Flegmatik: 66.93s / 92.34%
5th: Le Patron: 70.96s / 88.11%
The sustained speed that Pic D’Orhy showed was supported by a quick and accurate round of jumping. He recorded a Race IQ Jump Index of 7.8, which is better than average for a race at Ascot over this trip, and that efficiency was a lot better than his rivals could muster, gaining him 13.98 lengths on the field.
It would be fair to say that his rivals could not cope with the pace of the race and their jumping fell apart. Only Flegmatik, with a jump index of 7.2, got somewhere near handling the test that was set.
The lengths gained jumping data for each horse is set out below, which highlights the superiority of Pic D’Orhy.
1st: Pic D’Orhy: + 13.98 Lengths
2nd: Corbetts Cross - 0.77 Lengths
3rd: Blue Lord - 1.94 Lengths
4th: Flegmatik - 2.04 lengths
5th: Le Patron - 7.71 Lengths
6th: L’Homme Presse – 4.04 Lengths (Before being pulled up)
Inherent in any good round of jumping is how much speed horses lose over their fences. Anything under a loss of 4.00mph when jumping is indicative of a fast round of fencing, with minimal loss of momentum, and Pic D’Orhy was particularly fast over his fences, averaging a speed loss of just 3.21 mph over the 16 obstacles.
By contrast, Corbetts Cross in second place, averaged a speed loss of 4.28mph, that number significantly affected by the last four fences, where he was particularly inefficient as he went in pursuit of the winner.
It is of little surprise that Corbetts Cross seemed out of his comfort zone throughout, given that he needs three miles plus to give of his best. When he won the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last season, he recorded a Jump Index of 7.9 compared to the 6.4 that he achieved here, and he will be able to measure his fences better when he steps back up in trip. Pic D’Orhy may well head to the Melling Chase at Aintree again given that he does not hold a Cheltenham entry.
He won that race in 2023, but disappointed in it last year, if he is in the sort of form that he showed at Ascot, then he will definitely be a player.
It may be that connections fancy a crack at the King George next season, after all, he has a good record at Kempton. He ran very well in defeat at Kempton behind Banbridge in the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase in January.
That day, he recorded his lifetime best Jump Index of 8.5 and it should be noted that he has won at the track on two previous occasions.
THE drop in trip to two miles in the Grade 2 Bet MGM Kingwell Hurdle saw Golden Ace return to the winner’s enclosure for the first time since winning the falsely run Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last year.
She is a mare with plenty of speed, as she showed in that race at Cheltenham last year, when sprinting to success (FSP: 114.16%). She did not travel as strongly as she can, but knuckled down well to see off Burdett Road by three-quarters of a length.
Burdett Road set a strong pace, causing all the runners to finish relatively slowly. Contrast Golden Ace’s FSP here of 97.74% with the 114.16% she achieved at Cheltenham last March, showing how differently each race was run.
She usually jumps well and was good enough here, with a Race IQ Jump Index of 7.2. She has recorded a 7.9 in the past. That reasonably efficient round of jumping was significant here, because Burdett Road was let down for the first time in his career by his hurdling and the result may have been different if he had jumped better. His career scores are below.
Burdett Road Jump Index
Wincanton: 15/02/25: 6.6
Kempton: 26/12/24: 8.5
Cheltenham: 17/11/24: 8.2
Cheltenham: 27/01/24: 7.2
Cheltenham: 18/11/23: 6.5
The inefficient round of jumping meant that he lost 1.59 lengths on the field, whereas Golden Ace gained 0.74 lengths.
There is certainly a case to be made for Burdett Road turning the form around should they meet in the Champion Hurdle, because we know he can jump much better than he did here. That race would seem to be the obvious choice of race for Golden Ace, who has an excellent Cheltenham record, with two wins and a third place from just three starts there.
She is yet to record a Jump Index above 8.0 in her career and a slicker round of jumping in March may enable her to get into the frame, a test of speed rather than stamina is what brings out the best in her. The Mares Hurdle is an option for her, but she is unlikely to get the same pace scenario that she encountered in that race last year.