ONE of the most interesting things about Aidan O’Brien as a trainer is his willingness to change approach from year to year, and the initial stages of the 2025 season suggest a different method with his better three-year-old prospects.
Last weekend at the Curragh and Leopardstown, he ran four three-year-olds rated 110 or more – Henri Matisse (116), Delacroix (116), Camille Pissarro (114) and Exactly (112) – which is unusual for this time of year.
Between 2008 and 2024, he had only nine runners rated 110 or higher out before the end of March in Ireland and Britain, and just five of those were three-year-olds, though the timing of last Sunday’s Leopardstown meeting, with its early classic trials, plays a part as it is typically in April.
Yet even broadening the period out suggests a change in tack; O’Brien often ran these horses earlier in the 2010s, but since 2020, he has run just four three-year-olds rated 110 or higher before the end of April, two of those coming in an early 2000 Guineas in 2022, the other two sprinters.
Obvious depth
There are several possible reasons for this, the most obvious being that he has so much depth in his three-year-old team that he needs to split them up to some degree.
It could be horse specific reasons too. Each of last weekend’s highly rated runners ran plenty as juveniles, Camille Pissarro and Exactly having seven runs, Henri Matisse and Delacroix having six and five respectively, and were at their best on their final starts of the year.
Perhaps they are all types that will need an early run to produce their best in the classics.
But another reason might be more to do with the big picture, and O’Brien’s recent record in the Guineas, particularly the 2000. His last win in the English 2000 Guineas came in 2019 and it is not so much that his recent fancied runners like Auguste Rodin, Little Big Bear and City Of Troy have been beaten, it is that they did not turn up at all.
A five-year famine in a classic is hardly a missed meal for another yard, but this is Ballydoyle after all, and his recent record in the Irish 2000 Guineas (one win since 2018 with Paddington, a horse that had two runs beforehand) and the French 2000 Guineas (one win since 2017), might just suggest a different approach is being taken.
Previous form
As to the horses themselves, Camille Pissarro backed up his French Group 1 win when second under a penalty in the Gladness, something which was needed as his previous form had not come close to the Longchamp level.
His stablemate, Officer, fresh out of a maiden win, also ran a fine race in third, forced to challenge more towards the centre of the track.
Henri Matisse had the Group 3 Ballylinch Stud “Red Rocks” Stakes set up for him by stablemate Rock Of Cashel who forced Arizona Blaze and Comanche Brave, both of which may be sprinters, into an early pace battle.
That suited Henri Matisse who looked to find the seven-furlong trip on the sharp side, his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf win coming over a mile, though Ryan Moore can be deceptive in his riding style, sometimes looking in more trouble than he actually is.
A step up in trip should suit him better though he did look awkward under pressure, not for the first time, while not did Exactly convince with her attitude in the Group 3 Ballylinch Stud “Priory Belle” Stakes.
As had been the case in the Moyglare Stakes, her head carriage was awkward and she inclined to hang, though there is every chance she was beaten by a decent filly in Swelter.
With Delacroix, it was a classic Moore in Ireland ride, making all and gradually building the pace, and he looks set for another Derby trial after this rather than heading straight to Epsom.
THE Irish two-year-old scene for fillies last season was dominated by Aidan O’Brien and Ger Lyons, both maintaining a strike-rate north of 30% with their runners in the division in Ireland, and both had depth to their teams.
Aidan O’Brien kicked things off at Royal Ascot with wins for Fairy Godmother and Bedtime Story before more backend types like Lake Victoria and Exactly came on the scene, while Babouche beat the colts in the Phoenix for Lyons, the likes of Red Letter and Chantez also doing well in blacktype races.
Fillies from those two yards should clash again in the classics and beyond, but Dermot Weld may have a say if the early part of the turf season is anything to go by.
Weld played little part in the two-year-old races for fillies last season, winning with just one of his 25 runners (Swelter, more of her anon), only two of those sent off shorter than 6/1, no runner at all in the available races at the Galway Festival.
Yet to start this season, three of his five three-year-old fillies have won, with each looking as if pattern races are a realistic aim.
Bint Queen Kindly got things rolling with a win on opening day at the Curragh, well-backed and getting a confident ride from Chris Hayes, the form boosted since by the runner-up Copacabana Sands being an unlucky fifth in a higher grade at Leopardstown last Sunday.
Strongly supported
Tarima was another strongly supported winning debutante for the yard at Leopardstown, doing well to overcome a bump early and forced to come from off the pace in a steadily run race.
Despite getting behind early, Hayes seemed in no rush to make his challenge, and she finished up winning comfortably, beating two that had experience and were ridden forward.
Her breeding is there for all to see, and the trainer commented afterwards that ‘she was a backward filly as a two-year-old and I didn’t get to teach her that much as she was growing and developing’ so there should be more to come, potentially a lot more.
Most impressive of all, however, was Swelter winning the Ballylinch Stud “Priory Belle” Stakes.
The least experienced in the field, she was coming off a long absence and this was no easy race to return in as the pace was hot, the leader getting to the half-mile point 1.58 seconds faster than the colts in the earlier Group 3 over the same trip.
The fillies slowed down a little after that but were still nearly a second faster than the colts at the line, Swelter seeming to relish the well-run race, showing greenness in the closing stages but well on top late, shaping like one that would be better over further. Weld seemed of the same view afterwards regarding her trip preference, saying she would be a 10-furlong filly in time, but she looks well worth a go in one of the Guineas before stepping up in trip.