THERE are times in racing where one factor overrides all others; perhaps the ground is extreme and only some horses handle it, maybe there is a draw bias that means stall position is everything, in rare cases a jockey may even be riding so well as to dominate a meeting.
At Aintree last weekend, it was a trainer factor that ruled, though in reality Willie Mullins dominated not just that fixture, but National Hunt racing for the last decade.
Mullins has not always given Aintree his full attention, the strength of his team often depending on his chances in the British trainers’ championship.
From the outside, that title seemed an unrealistic aim as he was nearly £1.3 million down on Dan Skelton before the meeting, but the trainer thought otherwise.
He finished up having 30 runners at the fixture, his most since 2016 when he had 34, but he was not ‘all in’ with quality.
Back in 2016, when he won six races, those winners included Apple’s Jade, Annie Power, Douvan and Yorkhill, while among his beaten horses were Footpad, Djakadam, Nichols Canyon and Limini, whereas this year – when he had eight winners – only Lossiemouth could be described as an A-lister.
Best horses
Regardless of the metric used, Mullins did not run his best horses at Aintree last week.
None of his top three novice hurdlers (Kopek Des Bordes, Final Demand or Jasmin De Vaux) were there, while Majborough and Ballyburn missed the meeting too. He had three of the first five home in the Triumph, and none of them ran here.
Per official ratings, just three of his top 20 hurdlers ran at Liverpool, though eight of his top 20 chasers took part, the Grand National a big draw.
The horses that were successful for him at the meeting were largely those that missed Cheltenham, or in some cases underperformed at Prestbury Park.
Aintree Bowl winner Gaelic Warrior stands out among the first group, not at his best on his initial starts this season before coming back to form up in distance, despite both the ground and track configuration looking against him, while also being passed over by Paul Townend.
Anniversary Hurdle winner Murcia was an even bigger revelation. She had managed only eighth in the Fred Winter yet comfortably reversed form with the winner here, albeit in a race where there was next to no Triumph Hurdle form on offer, but even so it was a fine effort.
Emotional narrative
The big race itself provided emotional narrative from the trainer, jockey and owner perspective, but the big picture view is that Mullins has cracked what is required to win the new Grand National.
He famously trained five of the first seven home but the profile of those first seven runners is interesting to bear in mind for next year: six and a half of them were second season chasers (I Am Maximus is the half as he had a season and a half as a novice chaser!) while each of the seven raced in the inside half of the field.
Mullins has the depth to be able to do this and the effort of the admirable Hewick, who finished eighth, was the counterpoint to this, an older horse that raced wide, likely doing well in the circumstances.
Hampered
If there was an unlucky horse, it was the third Grangeclare West who was hampered at the second Valentine’s and made a mistake at the last.
Despite this, he closed all the way to line and was faster than both Nick Rockett and I Am Maximus in each of the final two furlongs.
It represented a big step forward from his last run at Navan, an outing he needed in order to qualify for this race.
The consequences of all this Aintree success for Closutton will be seen at the British meetings over the next couple of weeks, both big and small, and there will likely be a few Irish trainers glad to see this development as it could open up some opportunities for them at Fairyhouse and Punchestown.
Percy perfect for the flat?
THE combination of drying ground and racing on the inside track meant Fairyhouse on last Sunday was a relative speed test for the three good races brought forward from Easter, the move to facilitate those horses running back at Punchestown.
Mr Percy was fresher than most in the Grade 2 Paddy Kehoe Suspended Ceilings Novice Hurdle having been off since Christmas and won with more in hand than the three-quarter length margin suggested.
First-time cheekpieces were applied, presumably to sharpen his jumping after mistakes in recent starts, but after hurdling fine for the first two thirds of the race, he made errors both three out and at the final hurdle.
That he was still able to win is to his credit and he has been upped to 138 after this but perhaps a more interesting route, given his hurdling issues, might be the flat.
He is rated 88 there, a nice mark for good staying handicaps, and remains unexposed.
Tactics change
The second Fleur In The Park ran one of his best races under a tactics change, held up this time, seeing out the trip fine with the emphasis on speed, though two miles might yet see him to better effect.
Irancy reversed Supreme form with Karniquet in the Donohue Marquees Novice Hurdle, the speed test suiting him much better than his stablemate who surely wants further at this point, his last two runs coming in well-run two-mile races around stiff tracks, a sharp contrast to the Fairyhouse inner circuit.
That said, Irancy should not be judged on his Cheltenham form. He was coming off a 116-day break while Mark Walsh said afterwards that he didn’t handle the track, while the third Belloccio caught the eye at little in coming from rear, but his mark has suffered as a result, up from 129 to 142 afterwards.
The most impressive winner on the day was Switch From Diesel in the Listed Total Enjoyment Bumper though she did possess a big experience edge, having more starts than the three that she beat combined.
She looked better than ever on good ground here, however, something which had looked a worry beforehand and Ross O’Sullivan has gradually improved her since she joined his yard last autumn.
Sticking with Bubble Gum
CONDITIONS at Cork on Sunday were similarly fast, and Noblesse Stakes winner Bubble Gum looked the runner with the biggest future on her first start for Paddy Twomey.
She was helped by getting first run on the second Ameerat Jumaira – who herself made a good start for a new yard – but won with a bit in hand and will be likely be better with some ease.
There are some questions marks over the depth of the form, however. Elizabeth Jane was a significant non-runner, while none of the three Jessica Harrinton fillies ran to form.
Needing the run
Of the big yards, her horses seem to be needing the run more than most, and while speaking about her 2000 Guineas hopefuls this week, she mentioned that there are plenty of other races for them later in the year, something that seems reflected in the overall approach of the yard early on.
Lady With The Lamp put up a good performance in the Cork Stakes, beating the males and older horses under a penalty, especially as the market and connections suggested she would need the run.
She was helped by where she raced, sitting off the strong early pace set by five-furlong type Ostraka, in a race where a few were trying sprinting for the first time.
Vespertilio, who travelled typically well, seemed to take to it better than Chicago Critic who looked like he would be suited to a return to further.