CHELTENHAM clues were thin on the ground last week, but Kempton produced a couple of Festival relevant performances, which are worthy of analysis and the Grand National also features this week, as I look at what Nick Rockett achieved in winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse.
Tripoli Flyer put up a useful performance to win this Grade 2 Ladbrokes Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton.
Connections will be tempted to let him take his chance in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, with the slight caveat that he was reported to have bled from the nose and his participation would depend on him recovering from that physical issue.
The hallmark of this performance was the speed that he showed on ground that was soft. The pace was strong, and Tripoli Flyer was held-up in fifth place. He made his move from mid-division with four furlongs to run and the sustained speed that he showed took him clear of his rivals.
His final four furlongs contained three sub-14.00s furlongs, which meant that he recorded a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 106.15%, meaning he was 6.15% faster in the final four furlongs than he was through the previous 12. The final four-furlong splits of the first four are set out below.
1st: Tripololi Flyer: 55.82s
2nd: Miami Magic: 57.90s
3rd: Celtic Dino: 58.94s
4th: Blues Singer: 60.85s
The second and third also finished relatively strongly, but could not live with the speed of the winner, who hit the line hard with a final furlong of 14.44s compared to the runner-up, who clocked 15.82s.
His three wins over hurdles have come at Market Rasen, Musselburgh and Kempton, which are all sharp tracks suiting his strong travelling style and raw speed, which leaves a doubt as to whether he would be suited by a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on a stiffer track. Nonetheless, his hold-up style and speed could see him running into a place at Cheltenham.
His jumping can be described as adequate rather than spectacular. Race IQ not only provide jump index scores for each race that horses have run in, but they also create a lifetime score, with 7 being an average round of jumping in terms of efficiency and speed.
Below are the career jump indices for the horses at the head of the market for the Supreme, with Tripoli Flyer added.
Kopek Des Bordes: 6.9
Romeo Coolio: 7.3
Salvatore Mundi: 7.1
Workahead: 7.5
William Munny: 6.9
The New Lion: 8.0
Tripoli Flyer: 7.2
These are all lightly-raced horses and their jumping is likely to improve with experience and therefore these numbers are not a guide to who has the best chance of winning, but they show how efficient these horses have been to date and Tripoli Flyer is clearly not out of place in terms of his jumping.
KATATE Dori put up a career best performance to win the competitive Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase Premier Handicap by 15 lengths off a mark of 125. He has three entries at Cheltenham, with the Ultima Handicap Chase looking a likely option for which he is generally available at 12/1.
This was an attritional strongly-run contest and that will be factored into his possible Cheltenham participation. Karate Dori raced in rear before making a mid-race move to take up the running with six furlongs to go.
That move saw him establish a lead on his rivals and thereafter, despite getting tired, he galloped out better than his closest pursuers, as revealed by the Finishing Speed Percentages achieved.
1st: Katate Dori: 96.40%
2nd: Hyland: 95.42%
3rd: Our Power: 92.10%
4th: Guard Your Dreams: 93.07%
All the runners finished tired, even Hyland who had been held up in last place conserving energy. This was the performance of a relentless galloper, who despite only able to record a very slow final furlong of 17.59s, was still too good for his toiling rivals.
In terms of jumping, Katate Dori’s race score of 6.8 out of 10 is in line with his career score of 6.9 and his career score over hurdles was 6.9 as well, suggesting that in terms of jumping, he was as good he can be in this race.
He was certainly better than his rivals, gaining 9.39 lengths on the field.
Hyland in second place is a good jumper of a fence, with a career jump index of 7.9, but he was below his best here, only able to record a score of 6.9.
He is not one to give up on, as his decent jumping record has been achieved on good ground and conditions here were as soft as he has encountered over fences. He remains a horse to be positive about.
FOLLOWING his win in the Thyestes at Gowran Park, Nick Rockett was looking to enhance his Grand National claims in the ToteRacing on Twitter Bobbyjo Chase. In beating Intense Raffles by three-quarters of a length, we did not learn anything new about him, because this race was falsely run, turning into a dash up the home straight.
Nick Rockett recorded a Finishing Speed Percentage of 117.44%, which shows us just how fast he completed the final four furlongs (55.94s). Indeed, every runner in the race finished fast, bar Clonmeen, who was tailed off.
1st: Nick Rockett: 117.54%
2nd: Intense Raffles: 117.26%
3rd: Capodano: 116.01%
4th: Minella Cocooner: 115.51%
5th: French Dynamite: 113.51%
Intense Raffles is a previous winner of the Irish Grand National, who is a thorough stayer and would not have been suited by this test of speed - in the circumstances, he did very well, showing more speed than he has ever done before in his career.
Given the steady gallop, it is unsurprising that both the first two were able to measure their fences and jump well. Nick Rockett recorded a jump index of 8.3, which is better than his career record of 7.6 and Intense Raffles was even better with a score of 9.2 here, compared to his career record of 8.2.
With these numbers neither should have an issue with Aintree, particularly Intense Raffles, who will relish the test of stamina.
Nick Rockett may not jump quite as well as Intense Raffles, but he has now shown his class by demonstrating how much speed he has, which, allied to his known stamina, will be a potent weapon at Aintree.
He is generally available at 8/1, which seems fair given what we know about him and what we have learnt about his tactical speed.