THE higher the grade of horse, the more likely that they will repeat or improve on their previous performance. There’s no higher National Hunt grade than the Cheltenham Festival. And since all concerned are doing their best to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed.
In 2025 there have been several changes to the Festival. I estimate that 14 of the 28 races may be affected. So caveat emptor please!
Gaultstats.com is laid out so that you can flick from race to race and see a list of stats and trends. This article concerns several trends that can cover a lot of the races. A G-stats rule is that you decide what is relevant, not me.
1. Momentum
Because winning a race here is so important, I believe that the result of one may affect the result of another. TV, tipsters and us punters tend to put each race in its own separate box. We have decided weeks ago what we are going to back, especially in the graded races. But any trainer and his staff who win a Festival race will be immediately bouncing with joy. Even WPM.
Does that affect their other runners that day? I don’t know, horses don’t talk. But in the last nine Festivals i.e. 36 days’ racing, there have only been five days where the races were all won by different trainers. On the other 31 days, at least one trainer has had at least a double. Once one goes in..
2. Beaten Favourite (BF) Last Time Out
Information easily found. The horse has been a BF last time in a prep race. Why should the horse now win a race which is usually of a higher and more competitive nature? It is the Olympics, after all. Check if the horse had fallen or unseated early in the prep race e.g. Corbetts Cross last year. You might forgive them.
However, no BF last time has won the Mares’ Novice. Or the Pertemps this century. Or the County Hurdle since 2013.
3.Favourites win races.
Some races seem to give themselves to favourites. Ten of the last 13 Arkle favourites have won, seven at odds-on. Yet the more experienced two milers in the Queen Mother don’t have the same record. Eleven odds-on shots this century. Only three won.
The Champion Hurdle favourite has won in 10 of the last 12 years. The worst performing races for favourites? Band Of Outlaws is the only Fred Winter winning fav since 2010, Chosen Mate the sole Grand Annual winning’ jolly’ since 2013. No Albert Bartlett winning favourite since At Fishers Cross 2013. Maybe due?
4. Stables win races
Some stables seem to thrive on certain races. WPM has won 13 Bumpers, Nicky H seven Triumph Hurdles. Yet WPM can’t win a handicap chase. Nicky H and Paul Nicholls have yet to take the National Hunt Chase.
Gordon Elliott has come very close but he has yet to win the Brown Advisory. In the Pertemps he has saddled 21 runners since 2017. Three won and nine others finishers at least fifth. Dan Skelton and WPM have nine of the last 10 County Hurdles between them. It’s a slight tangent but Gigginstown has run a total of 19 in the Martin Pipe. Four won, six others were placed and Column Of Fire in 2020 could’ve, should’ve…
Rocky's Diamond - No five-year-old has ever won the Stayers \ Healy Racing
5. Ages – Certain ages don’t win races.
This century, 205 horses aged 10 or older have competed in the four championship races. Only four have won, Sire De Berlais, Special Tiara, Sprinter Sacre and Moscow Flyer. Strike the veterans off? The Stayers’ in its current format has been going since 1972. No five-year-old has ever won. Rocky’s Diamond?
No Coral Cup winner older than eight since 2007. However, 10 of the last 11 winners of the Hunters Chase were aged either 10 or 11 yrs.
6. Course form – Always seen as a positive.
Maybe not in handicap hurdles. No winner of the Fred Winter had previously run at the course. Since 1991 only three County Hurdle winners were course winners. There have been 31 Coral Cup winners. Only six had the C beside their name and four of those were trained by Nicky H.
Summerville Boy, Supreme 2018 is the only Festival novice winner in a long time previously beaten on course in the same discipline. Like Potters Charm. The last six winners of the Plate had all won a race on course that season.
7. Headgear – Not usually a good sign in graded or novices’ races.
No Supreme winner since Flown in 1992. However, WPM went close last year with a first-time hood on Mystical Power, then followed up with the same trick on Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle. Emmet did the same with Corbetts Cross in the NH Chase. Worth watching for that. Nine of the last 13 Ultima winners wore some sort of headgear. Three of the other four were novices and possibly a little less lairy?
8. A letter last time out
Horses with a B, F, P, R, S or U as their previous form figure. In the last four Festivals, 97 LLTs ran (Letter Last Time). Only five have won. They were Gaelic Warrior (U), Corbetts Cross (F), Angels Dawn (U), Corach Rambler (U), Mrs Milner (F). I’ll let you decide on the importance of each letter. L’Homme Presse, Envoi Allen, Lossiemouth?
These are just a few of the things I think about during the winter. I know, that’s worrying. Gaultstats 2025 may be my final edition.
My chosen charity this year is the Irish Injured Jockeys Fund. With the tragedy that befell Michael O’Sullivan, I think it right that we support these brave young men and women. They provide for our entertainment.
Web address for donations is https://www.idonate.ie/fundraiser/BryanGault or the link is on www.gaultstats.com.
Please be generous. Nothing goes to me or the site. Have fun next week.