THIS time last year, I mused whether the defection of Energumene, Constitution Hill and Marine Nationale – the latter pair in the week before racing – would affect the atmosphere at Cheltenham and, with most of Nicky Henderson’s runners withdrawn with the stable under a cloud, the usual sense of occasion was missing for the third time in five years.
So far, touch wood, such dramas have been avoided and all the defending champions are back for more, with Constitution Hill and Jonbon added to the mix, after their unfortunate absences 12 months ago, promising a Cheltenham Roar of renewed vigour.
Champion Hurdle
State Man is the returning champion and his record of 10 Grade 1 hurdles wins, including a hat-trick in the Irish Champion Hurdle, should see him arrive to a trumpet blast; his reputation has suffered in recent runs, however, with defeat to Brighterdaysahead in the Morgiana forgivable, but followed by a drubbing from the mare at Leopardstown over Christmas.
His win in the Irish Champion was a hollow one, with Lossiemouth falling and the market says he will struggle to be placed.
BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD has always looked a potential superstar and it’s still galling to think she was beaten at this meeting last year, when Jack Kennedy and Paul Townend played jockeys, while Lorcan Williams seized the race on Golden Ace.
She is unbeaten otherwise, and has progressed from race to race, beating State Man three-parts of a length in the Morgiana before a scarcely credible 30-length romp in the Neville Hotels Hurdle at Leopardstown in December, with a sub-par State Man third.
She was helped by having King Of Kingsfield set a strong gallop and she kicked again when her pacemaker weakened before the last, finishing with running left, despite the rapid early fractions. It will take a monster to give her 7lb and a beating in her current form.
King Of Kingsfield will again set a strong pace in the Champion and, while that will suit the selection, suggestions that it will make it awkward for Nico de Boinville on Constitution Hill are baseless.
In theory, de Boinville will have to keep an eye on Brighterdaysahead in front, while not setting things up for Lossiemouth (if she runs) by committing too early.
In reality, he will almost certainly position his mount immediately behind Brighterdaysahead, going as fast as he is comfortable, and he will – quite rightly – not think twice about Lossiemouth, whose chance here is slimmer than the market reckons.
The truth is that Constitution Hill will relish a strong pace, and the faster King Of Kingsfield goes, the happier Nico will be. The horse is clearly back in form after his troubles last year, beating Lossiemouth with plenty to spare at Kempton, but the jury is out on whether he’s quite as good as he was two or even three years ago, when he looked untouchable.
He’s not had to repeat the form of his spectacular Supreme win since, but may need to if he’s going to emulate Comedy Of Errors and Hurricane Fly in regaining his crown. Great horses make great races, however, and this clash could be one for the ages.
Predictions
1. BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD
2. Constitution Hill
3. State Man
Queen Mother Champion Chase
JONBON jumped well when winning the Clarence House at Ascot and was in command when Energumene had to reach for the penultimate fence, coming home six and a half lengths to the good and putting up a career-best effort in the process.
The runner-up is probably past his prime now, and good ground would be against him at Cheltenham. Much has been made of Jonbon’s previous defeats at the Festival, but for all that wiseguy talk about the track, he’s a horse who rarely fails to produce the goods, and he remains undefeated when ridden by Nico de Boinville, whose no-nonsense approach suits Jonbon, who has only looked vulnerable when ridden with kid-gloves, as has been the case in the past when beaten here.
The Clarence House was a more revealing prep for the Champion Chase than the Dublin Chase at Leopardstown, which saw Gaelic Warrior again fail to repeat the form of his brilliant Arkle Chase win.
He’s been sensibly rerouted to the Ryanair, but Dublin Chase 1-2 Solness and Marine Nationale both enhanced their claims in a race that was widely misinterpreted at the time.
Solness was not handed an easy lead at Leopardstown, although the decision to ride Quilixios on the inside made it easier for Danny Mullins to dominate. Solness set a very strong gallop when getting to the front, again looking suited by racing wide in isolation and finding for pressure, when joined by Marine Nationale at the last.
His recent improvement is backed up by the clock, but the worry is that he was well-beaten in the Grand Annual last season off a mark of 149 and has not been spared since, with the Dublin Chase his ninth run since. Whether he can be as fresh at Cheltenham after such a schedule must be a doubt.
Marine Nationale has been well-supported by those who feel he did well to get so close at Leopardstown, but my view is that he had the race run to suit, with Solness going hard in front, and I was disappointed that he was beaten, having reeled the leader in at the last.
He’s very talented, but I suspect a little soft in a finish, and I can see him running well without winning.
Arkle runner-up Found A Fifty had excuses at Christmas and had previously beaten Solness, giving him 7lb in the Fortria at Navan. He was crabbed for being unimpressive there, but that race has worked out tremendously well since and he’s the forgotten horse, if taking up his entry.
Predictions
1. JONBON
2. Found A Fifty
3. Marine Nationale
Ryanair Chase
Protektorat hadn’t stayed the three and a quarter miles of the Gold Cup and duly benefitted from the drop in trip and return to aggressive tactics, when winning this race last year.
He’s a year older now and had looked slightly regressive, until bouncing back to form to outjump and outspeed Djelo at Windsor in January, form which looks better in light of Grade 2 wins for the runner-up either side of that defeat. Protektorat may not get loose on the lead this time, which tempers confidence, but he arrives in form, and his Cheltenham record stands up to scrutiny.
Djelo appeared to stay three miles when winning the Denman at Newbury last time, but he essentially swamped some stayers for speed there, getting to the front easily before holding on with a bit in hand.
He had Protektorat well behind, when winning the Peterborough Chase in a swamp, but lacked the gears of that rival at Windsor, and would need soft ground to gain revenge, in my opinion.
FACT TO FILE is the class act here, assuming you take the view that he’s simply a better horse at this trip, beating Galopin des Champs in the John Durkan, but beaten by that rival over three miles at Leopardstown on both starts since.
He has a similar profile to Allaho, who did plenty of racing at three miles before looking an improved model to win back-to-back runnings of the Ryanair. Prominent tactics tend to be favoured in this race, but with no shortage of pace on show, I’d expect Fact To File to slot in behind the leaders and pick up the pieces, if and when the pace begins to relent.
Gaelic Warrior remains a horse who does too much wrong before and during his races and, while this is a better option than the Champion Chase, he needs to be much more tractable to maintain a solid record at the Festival. He’s not for me, unless the ground turned very soft.
Il Est Francais is the dark horse and plenty view him as a banker to bounce out and jump his rivals into submission. I have some qualms about that, not least that he didn’t need to go especially fast to get loose in a King George, where his main rivals were content to allow him his head.
It’s assumed that he can get in the same rhythm here, but he won’t get away from Protektorat so easily. The course is an unknown for a horse whose UK form has all come at flat, right-handed Kempton, and he has twice suffered a pulmonary haemorrhage on the track.
The pace and the track are unknowns, but a tendency to bleed is a huge concern at Cheltenham and has been strangely underplayed.
Jungle Boogie is too old on the stats, but an interesting alternative, especially as Spillane’s Tower is reported as likely to miss the race, should Fact To File represent J.P. McManus.
A non-stayer in the Gold Cup last year, Jungle Boogie travelled as well as anything until climbing the final hill and has since made all to win at Ascot, despite looking ill-suited to that venue. This trip is his optimum, and he can make the frame, despite his advancing years.
Predictions
1. FACT TO FILE
2. Protektorat
3. Jungle Boogie
Stayers’ Hurdle
Teahupoo is the market leader again for the Stayers’, having won last year and he again arrives after just one prep run in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December.
He was beaten by Lossiemouth this time, although Gordon Elliott was more than happy with that run and has set him aside since. As I mentioned last year, he looks at his best when the mud is flying, with form figures on soft or heavy reading 111111111, as opposed to 21963412 on good or good to soft ground.
Freshness is important to him, but the key to him winning another Stayers’ crown is likely to lie in the ground, for all he seems to face an even weaker field than he did 12 months ago.
It will be intriguing to see if Elliott relies on Teahupoo alone, or whether he will also run Pertemps top-weight The Wallpark here. That gelding ran well in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot, but needs to improve again to win at the top level.
Home By The Lee is the danger on form, having beaten Bob Olinger in both the Lismullen Hurdle and the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown and he’s reported to be “a different horse” this season by those close to Joseph O’Brien.
He would need to do something different, as he has been beaten three times in this race already, and that will be a sticking point for all he looks a solid each-way selection.
Third to Home By The Lee at Leopardstown was the relative novice Rocky’s Pride, who improved on that when winning the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran next time. He’s another who the stats say can’t win, but if there is a genuine staying star of the future in the field, it’s him, and the five-year-old won the Galmoy, while still looking a work in progress. Realistically, it ought to be next year for him, but he’s exciting enough to defy tradition.
LUCKY PLACE isn’t a certain stayer, but last year’s Coral Cup fourth has improved again this term, winning the Ascot Hurdle and the Relkeel, giving weight to subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner, Gowel Road, on the latter occasion.
He needed every yard in the Relkeel and looks to my eye like he will stay three miles - on good ground at least - and he’s the percentage call at this stage.
Predictions
1. LUCKY PLACE
2. Teahupoo
3. Rocky’s Pride
Gold Cup
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is almost impossible to oppose in the Gold Cup, as he attempts to emulate Arkle and Best Mate.
Having won his third Irish Gold Cup last month, he seems to have scared off stablemate Fact To File, the only horse who had looked a serious threat to his crown at Christmas, when John Durkan form was reversed in the Savills Chase.
Fact To File finished closer in the Irish Gold Cup, but only because Townend plated rope-a-dope in front and turned the race into a sprint, impressing with how he quickened from the last to the line, while Fact To File was collared on the post for second by Grangeclare West.
Banbridge now looks the only danger to the favourite, bar mishap, and, if the ground came up good on the day, then it would be an intriguing clash.
A sound surface is critical for Joseph O’Brien’s King George winner, who was lapped in the Ryanair last year, when allowed to take his chance on testing ground. Connections have made it clear that if rain arrives to turn the going this year, Banbridge will wait for Aintree, and that would arguably leave L’Homme Presse as the horse most likely to follow Galopin Des Champs home.
I’m not sure why he went to Ascot again for a warm-up, but he hated it even more than last year, getting a fright early and losing his confidence. Cheltenham suits, and he ran well when fourth last year, after an interrupted prep.
Predictions
1. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
2. Banbridge
3. L’Homme Presse