FROM an industry perspective, breeze-up sales act as a barometer for the whole bloodstock market. Commencing in early spring (normally), breeze-ups are the first major flat sales of the season and can provide a solid reflection of the market from the previous year. If breeze-up consignors have an unprofitable year, this will be mirrored in their spending at the yearling sales the following autumn. This can then be reflected in the overall foal crop the subsequent season, thus creating a self-perpetuating cycle.

The industry regard in which breeze-up horses are held has been a tenuous one. Contrary to why breeze-ups were established in America during the 1970s, the sector has developed into a highly specialist nursery for purchasing ready-to-race equine athletes.

Yet, despite this type of sale producing winners year on year, there have still been biases associated with buying breeze-up graduates, which adds to the precariousness of the sales ring.

Primarily, there is the perception that breeze-up horses have been accelerated through the preparation process, with commercial pressures eclipsing welfare requirements. It is not uncommon in the industry to hear comments being circulated such as breeze-up horses “burn out”, “don’t progress” and “only run for two furlongs”.

However, these perceptions rely on anecdotal beliefs, which presented an opportunity for research to investigate these claims.

During this research, several statistical tests were carried out to investigate two main aims:

The data:

The data included all horses sold at 2013, 2014 and 2015 British and Irish breeze-up sales. These were compared to all flat yearlings sold at British and Irish yearling sales the year previous, so that racing data was collected from the start of their two-year-old racing career. Yearlings were chosen for comparison as both groups are sold with the aim of running in flat races.

Bought at the breeze-up sale in Doncaster for £44,000, dual Group 1 winner Quiet Reflection later sold for 2,100,000gns / Healy racing

Five to seven years of race data was examined, which provided the ability to examine longevity and an appropriate timeframe for a flat horse to prove its ability. Overall the data consisted of 1,473 breeze-up horses and 8,634 yearlings, with averages used during analysis to provide a fair comparison.

Chance of having a two-year-old runner:

The breeze-up market consistently exhibited a trend of having a higher percentage of two-year-old runners. This highlights the breeze-up cohort’s soundness by their ability to race shortly after sale. The results could also prove beneficial to clients purchasing on behalf of owners seeking a two-year-old runner, as it provides empirical evidence that could factor into maximising client satisfaction. (Table 1)

Attrition rate:

The common aim among purchasers is to buy a horse that will race. Therefore having a view of how many do not make the racecourse is vital information for prospective owners.

From the sample years analysed, only 8.3% of breeze-up purchases failed to make the racecourse compared to 13.2% of yearlings. Also encouraging was the lowering attrition rate represented by the breeze-up cohort which decreased by 50% in just a three-year period. This reflects the increased professionalism of the breeze-up market and highlights the ability of breeze-up consignors to produce sound horses that will be competitive on the racecourse. (Figure 1)

Longevity:

In the time frame analysed, breeze-up horses made a racecourse appearance on average 19 times, compared to yearling graduates at 17 times.

From a welfare perspective, the number of runs resembles career longevity and the ability to stay sound. The result from both groups provides practical information, not only to purchasers but also could be communicated in the debate against juvenile racing.

From an economic perspective, most owners become involved in racing for the ability to attend race days, with a runner, to fully enjoy the prestige of ownership. The result here suggests that both categories are on average facilitating a large number of starts, particularly the breeze-up cohort which could again be important to improve client satisfaction and boost the benefits of becoming involved in racehorse ownership.

Cost analysis:

The costs applied were based on the ‘2015 ROA study of costs to a racehorse owner in the UK’. Training costs were applied based on the median sales date and the result from the average month of first start for both categories.

It was found that breeze-up horses on average raced within one month of sale costing the purchaser approximately £1,833 between sale and racetrack, compared to eight months for yearlings with training costs at approximately £15,064. When racecourse earnings were factored into the scenario, the breeze-up market was found to exhibit 18% greater efficiency to the purchaser.

Racecourse performance:

Consistent for both categories, when a higher purchase price was paid, an increased number of wins were recorded. Additionally, and again consistent for both categories, when a higher purchase price was paid, a higher Timeform rating was achieved. For the <£30K purchases, a rating in the low 70s was achieved, which would be a mark associated with an average handicapper.

Conversely, for the >£80K purchases an average mark in the high 80s was recorded, which would be a mark associated with a decent handicapper, considered to be 10-12lbs off top-class. Comparable to the Timeform rating finding, when the purchase price increased so did the level of blacktype achieved, with little difference found between the two categories. This has been proven to increase the residual value of the horse for re-sale or commercial breeding purposes. (Table 2)

Summary:

Although this is only a snapshot of the main research, it is evident by examining the data that as the breeze-up market is rapidly increasing in professionalism, this is being reflected by results on the racetrack.

Whilst the yearling market has always been the market of choice for high-end, high-performing purchases, the results here suggest that the breeze-up market can no longer be ignored.

This research was carried out as part of The Thoroughbred Horseracing Industries MBA, University of Liverpool (September, 2019). The research was conducted on behalf of The Breeze-Up Consignors Association (BUCA) who are involved in publicising breeze-up sales as a valid opportunity to source quality thoroughbreds as well as showcasing the performance of breeze-up graduates on the racetrack. More information can be found at https://www.brzups.com/