Ascot Saturday

1:50 Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m 7f 180y

Demachine impressed me on his chase debut at Uttoxeter in a strongly contested event for that track, and improved when scoring over the course and distance on his next outing. He was a little disappointing when third to Paint The Dream at Newbury last time, but that was still a respectable effort, and a bad mid-race mistake (his jumping has been sound otherwise) did not help. He was three lengths in front of Sevarano at Newbury, and although that rival is 8lb better off at the weights, I doubt there is much between them in real terms.

Demachine has had wind surgery since that run, and Kerry Lee has an excellent record with those of hers who are returning from such a procedure, with four wins from 12 runners. The yard is 10-60 for the season, with a winner and a second from just three runners in the past fortnight, whereas Oliver Sherwood, who trains Sevarano is 0-26 in the past six weeks.

This is not a two-horse race by any means, but the price differential between the horses mentioned is wrong, and while the likes of Full Back and Remastered are respected, Demachine is a course-and-distance winner with arguably the best form on offer, and is undoubtedly overpriced.

2:25 ‘My Oddsboost’ On Betfair Swinley Chase (Listed Handicap) 2m 7f 180y

I cannot rule any of these out, and the fact that the one I’m closest to crossing off the list is course specialist Regal Encore tells a story. I was with Jerrysback last time, and he shaped well, but is well found at the head of the market, and there may be better value with the outsiders.

Hill Sixteen is a smashing sort who ran unaccountably badly in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock in December, but is now tried in a tongue-tie, and won his previous handicap start over fences by 64 lengths.

I’ve been dead against Cloudy Glen over staying trips the last twice, as he barely gets three miles, but now that he’s tackling a shorter trip, I’d not be surprised to see him fare much better, and rank outsider Sub Lieutenant is thrown in on the best of his form, and ran perfectly well on his debut for Georgie Howell over this course and distance in December, and now sports his usual cheekpieces again. He’s the one most likely to go off at a daft price, and would be tempting if he was 50/1 or bigger.

3:00 Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f 58y

Jockeyship should count for a lot here, with two of the bigger fancies ridden by claimers riding for their respective parents, and vulnerable for that. It would be extremely harsh to criticise Sam Twiston-Davies for his family connections, however, and he is one of the best riders on show at Ascot.

Stolen Silver has failed to win over fences this term, but he ran his best race upped to two and a half miles last time, and that race has worked out well. He is a very interesting runner back over timber here, having won the Grade 2 Rossington Main at Haydock 13 months ago, and he was fancied in the Betfair Hurdle this time last year off 145, but did not get the race run to suit, doing his best work at the finish in both those races. He’s still unexposed after only half a dozen tries over hurdles, none of them beyond two miles, and his best form has come on soft or heavy ground, so he looks very interesting here.

3:35 Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) 2m 5f 8y

The Ascot Chase is complicated by the possibility that three runners in a small field may well be determined to lead, although the fact that two of them represent the same yard suggests discretion may be the better part of valour for one of them.

The problem is that both Cyrname and Master Tommytucker seem much better when able to dictate, so whoever drops off will be disadvantaged. Dashel Drasher has been impressive in making all over course and distance on his last two starts, and it’s hard to see his connections changing tactics. That horse has been declared at Newbury on Sunday in the Denman Chase, which raises the spectre of him being taken out, and all in all, this looks a horrible race for the uninformed punter to tackle.

Cyrname was beaten in similar conditions last year despite leading, and it’s possible that last year’s winner, Riders Onthe Storm, will again be the beneficiary of a pace collapse, and even though he’s been badly out of form this season, he appeals most at the prices given the apparent pace scenario.

Haydock Saturday

2:05 William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) 3m 58y

It’s not been a great season for everyone’s favourite duffle-coat model, but I keep coming back to runners from the Twiston-Davies yard this weekend, and Ballyoptic is another who appears overpriced in a Rendlesham where pretty much all the runners have a bit to prove.

The key to Ballyoptic – beyond stable form – is the ground, and on ground described as heavy by Timeform he has won five times from six starts, with the only defeat coming in a bumper when he was trained by Ian Ferguson.

He has been handed some very stiff tasks in his time, and is not a good enough jumper to have won what he might over fences, but he retains almost all of his ability, and is favoured by the conditions of this race, in which he received weight from a number of horses who are inferior to him on official figures.

2:40 William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 4f 97y

Notachance showed he had something left in the tank by rallying when challenged by Achille in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time, and he ought to follow up despite meeting that rival – who came in for a very well-judged ride at Warwick – on worse terms. Alan King had prepared him specifically for the Warwick contest, but he’s young, unexposed and genuine, and has plenty going for him, for all he’s not been missed in the market.

Newbury Sunday

3:35 Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap) 2m 69y

The Denman and Game Spirit Chases are fascinating events to look forward to, but tough races to bet in given fancied horses in both are very hard to weigh up. On the other hand, the Betfair Hurdle is ripe for a bet, especially as Nicky Henderson’s pair look beatable but take up a fair chunk of the market.

Both Buzz and Mister Coffey want to be held up and delivered late, and those tactics won’t be easy to execute. In addition, the former has a much better record right-handed, and has been unplaced on six of nine starts going anti-clockwise. Mister Coffey has lots of talent, but pulls like a train, and Nico de Boinville is not the ideal rider for such horses, fine pilot that he is.

Annual Invictus has the right profile for this, being a novice who has looked useful in winning his last three starts easily, and his trainer Chris Gordon has his horses back to health after a quiet spell. Gordon has only had three runners in this over the years, but two (Remiluc twice, to be truthful) have repaid each-way support at big odds. He’s a much better trainer than his public persona would suggest, and Annual Invictus would be a fair bit shorter in the hands of a higher-profile handler.

Recommended

Saturday

Demachine 1:50 Ascot – 1pt win @ 11/2 (SkyBet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

Stolen Silver 3:00 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair)

Riders Onthe Storm 3:35 Ascot – 1pt win @ 20/1 (Hills, Boyles)

Ballyoptic 2:05 Haydock – 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet365, 16/1 general)

Sunday

Annual Invictus 3:35 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general)