Donn McClean

IT is some day ahead, British Champions Day at Ascot and, in as much as Irish Champions Weekend has knitted itself neatly into the fabric of the European Pattern, so has British Champions Day. The British season’s finale, the crescendo.

It all begins with a Group 2 race which should probably really be a Group 1 race. The Qipco British Champions (same prefix for the first three races) Long Distance Cup is all the better for the fact that Order Of St George and Big Orange are both set to line up.

We were supposed to have this Gold Cup rematch before, in the Irish St Leger at the Curragh, so hopefully the weather won’t scupper this one too.

Big Orange side-stepped the Prix du Cadran at Chantilly three weeks ago, which is a positive in the context of this afternoon’s race but, even so, it will be mildly surprising if he able to beat Order Of St George today.

He beat him in the Gold Cup, of course, but that was by just a short-head over two and a half miles on fast ground, and Order Of St George had to go wider than ideal around the home turn.

The drop in distance today and the easier ground are probably both relative positives for Order Of St George in the context of this micro-duel.

It is a bit of a worry that Aidan O’Brien’s horse could only finish fourth in this race last year, but it is only a little bit of a worry. We know that he goes well at Ascot, so it wasn’t the track, and we know that he is wholly effective over today’s trip of two miles. And he was only beaten a total of a length and a half last year.

The son of Galileo ran out of his skin to finish fourth in the Arc de Triomphe this year, just as he did last year in finishing third. The difference is, there were only two weeks between the Arc and British Champions Day last year, or 13 days to be exact.

There are almost three weeks this year – 20 days. That extra week could make a big difference, and he is the most likely winner of today’s race by far.

That said, Stradivarius should probably be closer to the favourite in the betting than he is. John Gosden’s horse is a hugely talented three-year-old stayer who has the potential to be even better still.

After winning the Queen’s Vase over a mile and six furlongs at the Royal meeting, he stepped up in trip and in class to win the Goodwood Cup. He outgunned Big Orange that day, he was the winner on merit. Admittedly he was receiving the 13lb weight-for-age allowance that day, which is not insignificant, but he still receives 8lb from the older horses today.

PROGRESSED

The weight-for-age theory says that, as a three-year-old, he should have progressed by that 5lb differential with natural maturity, but there is a chance that he will have progressed by even more than that. He has run just once since the Goodwood Cup, in the St Leger, when he finished third behind Capri and Crystal Ocean.

That was one of the strongest renewals of the Leger run in recent times, and Stradivarius was beaten just a total of a half a length. As well as that, he raced on his own towards the far side through the final furlong, and he shaped as if he would do even better with an even sterner test of stamina. He was coming back at the winner inside the final 50 yards. He should be even happier today back over two miles.

The soft ground is a slight concern, but that concern is factored into his odds, he drifted when the rains came on Thursday, and it was easy ground at Doncaster when he put up a performance that was probably a career-best. We know that he goes well at the track, and it is a positive that Gosden nominated today’s race as his target immediately after the Leger.

BALMORAL HANDICAP

The first 23 horses at the five-day stage all stood their ground in the concluding race, the Balmoral Handicap, all 20 runners plus all three reserves, which is probably not that surprising given the prize money that is on offer. (A quarter of a million.)

You can understand why Zabeel Prince has been put in as favourite. He is proven on soft ground, he was impressive in winning at York last Friday, and he is 5lb well-in under his 6lb penalty. (The handicapper raised him by 11lb.) However, he had to have had a hard race at York, and this is just a week later. Also, he has never raced at Ascot.

You can also understand why Lord Glitters is clear second favourite. The Whipper gelding was the eye-catcher of the Challenge Cup at Ascot two weeks ago, finishing off his race well on the near side to get up for second place behind Accidental Agent.

That was his first run for David O’Meara, so he could improve for it, and he is 4lb well-in today, he gets to race off his old mark of 102 as opposed to his revised mark of 106. He is obviously proven at the track and he is by Whipper, so he should be at home on the ground. He is a massive player.

However, the winner of that Challenge Cup, Accidental Agent, is available at three and a half times Lord Glitters’ price, and that is probably too big. He raced on the far side that day, and he hit the front early enough, but he was strong all the way to the line.

Eve Johnson Houghton’s horse does have to race under a 6lb penalty today, and the handicapper raised him just 5lb, so he is actually 1lb poorly-in, but he is only three and he has the potential for significant progression now. He is obviously proven on the track and on easy – if not soft – ground, and he stays seven furlongs well, so he has every chance of getting a mile.

He has always been highly-regarded by connections, they are talking about group races for him next season and, if he is going to be a group horse – and there is every chance that he will be – he should be able to go close in this handicap – highly competitive though it is – off a mark of 110.

RECOMMENDED

STRADIVARIUS 1 point win, 7/1 (generally)

ACCIDENTAL AGENT 1 point each-way, 14/1 (generally)