IT’S hard to remember a Cheltenham Festival with so many short-priced, well established favourites. Ten of the 28 favourites are below 2/1 at the time of writing with Willie Mullins remarkably responsible for seven of them.

Such a circumstance is a likely product of the new races introduced to the meeting in recent years, diluting the quality from some of the traditional contests by giving trainers extra options for their best horses. For instance, if there was no Marsh Novices’ Chase this year, we could be looking at Envoi Allen v Monkfish in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.

So whether the current playing field is good for the overall competitive nature of the Festival is questionable but a debate perhaps for another day. In truth, the casual or indeed general racing fan who plays at Cheltenham is probably unconcerned with the fact that the Mares’ Hurdle has taken away from the Champion Hurdle in recent seasons.

Clearcut with-or-against favourites trading in and around the even money mark must be the ideal situation for the bookmakers.

Paddy Power racing director Paddy Desmond agrees partly: “It is and it isn’t. Lots of short-priced favourites means it’s more volatile for a bookmaker, as in if all or a lot of the favourites win on a given day, it’ll be really, really bad for a bookmaker but if one or two of them gets beaten it becomes quite good.

“It definitely encourages more multiple business and therefore your liabilities on multiples are more under the spotlight than your liabilities on singles. Multiples are hugely popular for Cheltenham and if you look at the worse days we’ve had, they’ve generally been when the short-priced multiples have clicked.

“We’ve some bad single field books. The worst single field book we had was Tiger Roll’s first Grand National but that still wasn’t a patch on what we would have lost on past Cheltenham Festivals on multis. The worst one that springs to mind is the 2013 Thursday when Vautour, Thistlecrack and Limini all went in.”

And how can you talk about past Cheltenham Festival multiple bets and not talk about Annie Power in 2015? The fall that saved the bookies millions. Cheltenham betting folklore.

Eight of the 10 favourites below 2/1 are running on the first two days, split evenly. BoyleSports head of racing Alan Reilly says it’s probably the best chance of something similar to the Willie Mullins four-timer happening since that infamous day.

“I think the lopsided layout of those favourites means there has to be every chance something big could brew up with multiple bets,” he says. “When Annie Power fell, some of the figures bandied about by the industry were a little sensational but it was safe to say it was a seven-figure liability.

“I’m sure if we get to that position going into the National Hunt Chase on Tuesday (Royale Pagaille currently favourite) and the Champion Bumper on Wednesday (Kilcruit), we could have similar liabilities this year.

“Most of the business is done during the week itself but the multiples we have definitely seen already concern Monkfish, Kilcruit and Envoi Allen. Prior to Kempton, Zanahiyr would have been in everyone of those multiples. He was 6/4 but he’s now eased to 9/4 joint-favourite with Tritonic who has opened up that race with his performance in the Adonis. Energumene had emerged as a big threat to Shishkin in the Arkle but sadly won’t run now.”

Challenge

With liabilities mounting up from antepost betting and more significantly from these big multiples, Cheltenham is a unique beast and a challenge to navigate for the layer.

“It is what it is, we have to deal with it and we won’t run shy from it,” Reilly says. “The prices will reflect each horse’s chance in each respective race. It won’t necessarily reflect potential liabilities, unless of course we get to the point where we’re in a bit of trouble – say Chacun Pour Soi wins the Champion Chase on Wednesday, everything is running on to Easysland and then Kilcruit in the last. But that will be an industry thing, everyone will be in the same position.

“Generally speaking, I think it’s very positive for racing to have horses that command such short prices, God knows we need a positive story these days. If we can have some of those big-named runners to be champions and they can make front pages for the right reasons, that has to be good.

“Ultimately it will be positive for us. As big as Cheltenham is, the racing season doesn’t finish off after the Martin Pipe on Friday and ultimately it’ll bring punters back to us.”

Shops

Paddy Power and BoyleSports have just short 1,000 shops between Britain and Ireland which will be closed for Cheltenham this year and that is likely to effect the casual punters’ business. Yet despite the potentially alienating nature of online platforms and the increasingly negative connotations with having a betting account linked to your bank account, both Desmond and Reilly said that a significant migration of shop punters have moved online.

Despite Brexit and Covid worries about Irish-trained runners, the antepost nature has also been as strong as ever according to Desmond.

“We made the decision to go non runner no bet very early because of all the doubts over Covid and Brexit and what effect that could have on the Irish runners. A lot of our competitors didn’t follow and I think we saw increased business as a result. The result being that some of our biggest losers are horses that people were latching onto before they ran in their trial races.

“Tritonic and Champ are good examples. If Champ had been really disappointing in the Game Spirit Chase he might not even run in the Gold Cup. People were seeing it as a pretty safe non runner no bet investment before he ran in that race, the same for Tritonic in the Adonis – he probably wouldn’t even be on for the Triumph if he was beaten there.”

Both Desmond and Reilly report that there are significant liabilities arising out of antepost multiples concerning the likes of Shishkin, Envoi Allen, Monkfish and Chacun Pour Soi but that business will be a fraction of what happens in the day-of-race markets.

So what horse in what race is going to have the biggest effect on a good trading week?

“I’d say Envoi Allen,” Reilly asserts. “Personally, I want him to win for racing’s sake but I think all bookmakers would want to get him turned over. That would be a very good result. I think if we’re going to get stuck into one, it is likely be Appreciate It, purely because it’s race one on day one. He’ll probably go and win but it’s the first of 28 races. We can really get our teeth stuck into that.”

“Our liabilities are changing all the time at present,” Desmond says, “But anyone of those big favourites getting beaten will be significant. From the antepost books, Champ is the biggest liability on the Friday.

“Strangely Mrs Milner has become a decent enough liability in the Pertemps on Thursday. Bob Olinger is a big loser for us in the Ballymore on Wednesday and Honeysuckle is a big loser for us in the Champion Hurdle – she’s another good example of punters taking advantage of non runner no bet.”

In a previous interview, Desmond described the experience in the trading room during Cheltenham as tense, stressful, exciting and enjoyable. Personally he still takes an interest and bets himself, as does Reilly.

So what are two of the significant managers at the two biggest Irish betting firms looking to bet and take on next week.

“I’d Chacun Pour Soi and Concertista are the lays of the week,” Desmond says. “Of the pair probably Chacun Pour Soi. There’s more depth to his opposition – you’ve an Arkle winner in Put The Kettle On, you’ve Altior who could get better ground, you’ve First Flow who was so good the last day and you’ve Nube Negra as well.

“I know they all have questions to answer, but I think there’s depth to the Champion Chase for a horse like Chacun Pour Soi who hasn’t ever raced at Cheltenham. There was a period there when CPS and Monkfish were the same price for both of their races, I’d be much sooner back Monkfish than Chacun Pour Soi in that scenario.

“For a bet, I think Roksana is rock solid each-way in the Mares’ Hurdle.”

Reilly adds: “I try to avoid horses that I know are going to cost us. You can’t be sat there in the trading room cheering on horses that are going to cost the company!

“I quite like Third Time Lucki on the County Hurdle, the way the Skeltons are going. Entoucas is a horse we’ve earmarked for the Grand Annual when he reappeared at Fairyhouse, he was really eyecatching that day.”

The BoyleSports man concludes with one piece of advice for the punter keen to get stuck in: “I would always say bet responsibly. Set yourself a limit, don’t go over the limit.

“If you do that you’ll enjoy it and that’s the key to the whole week.”

Short-priced favourites at Cheltenham next week

TUESDAY

Appreciate It (Supreme) 6/4

Shishkin (Arkle) 1/2

Concertista (Mares’ Hurdle) 6/5

Royale Pagaille (National Hunt Chase) 11/8

Wednesday

Monkfish (Brown Advisory) 8/11

Chacun Pour Soi (Champion Chase) Evs

Easysland (Cross Country) 5/4

Sir Gerhard (Champion Bumper)2/1

Thursday

Envoi Allen (Marsh) 5/6

Friday

Elimay (Mares’ Chase) 7/4