Experienced contenders

The Champion Chase is a straightforward race to predict in terms of where the main contenders tend to come from, and it’s unusual for the race not to boil down to a match-up of the previous year’s winner and placed horses with the winner of the most recent edition of the Arkle spicing up the mix.

The advent of the Ryanair and more recently the Golden Miller (Marsh) means there can be a bit of variety to that, but the formula is enduring.

Altior showed all his quality at Newbury in the Game Spirit, while simultaneously revealing his weakness, and he faces his stiffest test. It’s hard to envisage Altior beaten after leading coming out of the last fence, and his strength in a finish is legendary. On the debit side, those who believe he’s a superb jumper are being fooled by the visually spectacular.

Altior takes the breath away, but he is, not an efficient jumper. He wastes too much time in the air and tends to be slower away from fences than his rivals; that is of no significance in a tactical race, or where he’s allowed to dominate, but in a well-run contest, it puts him on the back foot, as was demonstrated in his match against Cyrname.

He was slow in the air again at Newbury, and it’s clearly an issue that won’t be fixed, so the question is whether he will end up poorly positioned when the race begins in earnest, and whether his whirlwind finish will get him out of trouble.

I wanted Chacun Pour Soi to prove himself in open company after his impressive defeat of Defi Du Seuil at Punchestown, that coming on just his second chase start, and he pretty much backed it up when second to A Plus Tard on his return at Christmas.

Not everyone was impressed, but it showed that Punchestown was no flash in the pan, and he was impressive when beating Min in a fast time in the Grade 1 Dublin Chase.

To put his run there into context, the strong pace set by Ornua and Min saw the field reach halfway 4.5 seconds faster than the other Grade 1 chase run at that trip on the day. In normal circumstances, you could expect the latter contest to be run quicker from that point, but Chacun Pour Soi was still faster than Notebook from there to the finish.

The fact that he could take four lengths out of Min from the second last without being put under maximum pressure was deeply impressive.

Second-season chasers

Defi Du Seuil was prematurely hailed as the Champion in waiting while Altior was sidelined, and the question with him is whether two defeats of Un De Sceaux since he was beaten by Chacun Pour Soi at Punchestown justifies that opinion. Given the re-emergence of Altior and the continued progress from Chacun Pour Soi, that’s debatable, for all Philip Hobbs’s charge has shown himself to be hugely reliable since flopping on his chase debut.

He’s outsprinted Un De Sceaux twice, but whether he would be as effective in a fast-run Champion remains to be seen. For all that, his excellent record at Grade 1 level (111711211) needs the utmost respect.

A Plus Tard missed the Dublin Chase due to quickish ground, and in doing so probably ruled himself out of the Champion Chase, as his trainer has always been inclined towards the Ryanair.

Had be beaten Chacun Pour Soi again, things might have taken a turn, but that now looks unlikely.

Min is also Ryanair bound, although he’d appeal if anything happened to his stablemate, and his level of form in the past two years is excellent, aside from when he seemed to resent a change of tactics in this race last year.

Duc Des Genievres won last year’s Arkle, but showed signs of temperament when beaten at Punchestown, and has failed to progress this term, despite a fair second in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton.

Dynamite Dollars might have started favourite for the Arkle but for missing that race, and he made his comeback when a good third to Altior in the Game Spirit.

He should come on for the run, but needs to if he’s to progress to the standard required.

The shortlist

There are three who stand out here, and that makes it hard to justify betting anything else each way unless there are defections. Dual Champion Altior looks vulnerable, and a strong pace will punish his extravagance in the air.

Defi Du Seuil ticks plenty of boxes, but was put in his place by Chacun Pour Soi at Punchestown, and that form is easier to take at face value given the latter’s impressive win at Leopardstown last month.

Back: Chacun Pour Soi

Oppose: Altior

Consider: Min, if selection absent