AINTREE often provides one of the earliest tests of the Cheltenham Festival form, and that happened in the Grand National itself this year, with Anibale Fly finishing third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup then fourth at Aintree.
In time terms, his earlier performance (168) was more meritorious than his later one (147) by some way despite the fact that he came out narrowly best at the weights under 11st 8lb at Aintree.
The form of the Cheltenham Gold Cup had a clearer boost earlier in the week when Might Bite won the Betway Bowl Chase in emphatic fashion, something which persuaded me to revisit the timefigure of the former race and edge it up.
Might Bite’s time was not all that special – 163 for me compared to 172 at Cheltenham – but the manner in which he dismissed Bristol De Mai (who confirmed he is good but not as good as that one run at Haydock made him look) and Clan Des Obeaux suggests he is at least as good now as he was when an outstanding novice the season before.
I have Bristol De Mai’s Betfair Chase win on 171 now (he was also 167 when winning the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby on his reappearance), while the Aintree fourth Sizing Codelco needs to confirm he is worth the 153 he appeared to achieve here, having done nothing previously this term.
STAYERS
The form of the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham looks no less confusing now than it did at the time, with L’Ami Serge improving from eighth in that race to beat second-placed Supasundae in the Betway Aintree Hurdle on Thursday, the pair registering timefigures of 156 and 152 respectively (Clyne on 148 was surprisingly close in third).
The Stayers’ Hurdle third Wholestone and fifth Sam Spinner went one place and two places better in the Ryanair Stayers Hurdle on Grand National Day but were both trumped by a back-to-form Identity Thief, who nonetheless ran only a 149 timefigure. Sam Spinner’s win in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (163 timefigure) is still as good as anything in this division.
Meanwhile, Politologue – a weakening fourth in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival – managed to turn the tables on the runner-up there, Min, in the JLT Melling Chase, beating him by a neck and with each posting a 156 timefigure.
Both horses have run faster than that, though I have reduced Min to 164 on the back of this (Politologue’s 159 comes from his Haldon Gold Cup win at Exeter back in November). The trip might have been just too far for the Willie Mullins-trained horse on this testing ground.