NAVAN staged some decent racing last Sunday, including a couple of Grade 2s and a Grade 3, though whether events will have much bearing on the big contests of the main part of the season is to be doubted.
Perhaps the most interesting race of all was the Fortria Chase over two miles, not least because the surprise winner Arctic Skipper seemed to record a useful time (147 timefigure) despite looking an unlikely winner for much of the way and touching 499/1 in-play.
This is where sectional times expressed as finishing speed %s can really come into their own. Timeform’s Sectional Archive shows that the average winners’ speed from three out over fences at Navan is 104% of a horse’s speed for the race overall.
With a bit of basic arithmetic, you can figure out that a “par” sectional for this year’s Fortria (overall time of 249.7s, sectional distance estimated at 3.1f) would be about 46.5s. In other words, that the ideal position to be jumping the third-last was 1.5s (about six to seven lengths) behind the leader.
That happens to be almost exactly where Arctic Skipper and the short-head runner-up Gilgamboa were, while The Game Changer was being pursued by Ballycasey up front. The last two wilted late on as the first two swept past. Run the race at a more even pace and the result might have been different.
That is not to knock Arctic Skipper or Gilgamboa (who ran remarkably well given he was last seen when finishing fourth in the Grand National over more than twice as far), though things seemed to fall into their laps somewhat.
Ballycasey, another who contested the latest Grand National, was conceding weight all round and comes out best at the weights, with a 153 timefigure compared to his 157 previous best.
The Lismullen Hurdle and the For Auction Novice Hurdle earlier on the card were well-run affairs judged on finishing speeds, with Snow Falcon outstaying De Plotting Shed when returning a 148 timefigure in the former and Labaik getting up late and running a 140 figure in the latter.
With remarkably few good times having been put up by novice hurdlers so far this campaign, Labaik takes a prominent position in that division, though it is worth remembering that he refused to race twice on the flat earlier this year and arguably showed a few quirks here.
On the previous day at Naas, Missy Tata had taken the Grade 3 Fishery Lane Hurdle, a four-runner contest, but run at a good pace and resulting in a 135 timefigure for the progressive winner.