If you’re counting, it’s 84 days until the Kentucky Derby.
Eighty-four days for trainers to plot, owners to dream, jockeys to manouvere and horses to emerge and submerge on the way to Churchill Downs for the first Saturday in May.
It goes something like this.
Good Magic: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and clubhouse leader will make his three-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 3rd. A maiden going into the Breeders’ Cup, Good Magic dominated the best two-year-olds that day and earned a title. Trainer Chad Brown mapped out a plan from there (oh, hell it had been planned long before) to give Good Magic two preps before the Derby. It’s his race to lose.
Why he can win: Showed he’s a star on the rise in the Breeders’ Cup and no reason to see why he won’t continue to improve.
Why he can’t win: There are 84 days between now and the Derby.
Solomini: Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Curlin won the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, but was disqualified to third after a bump and run late. Freshened briefly, he’s worked twice and aims at the San Felipe on March 10th or the Rebel on March 17th. Baffert recruits horses faster than Churchill recruited boats at Dunkirk – Solomini is just one in the arsenal.
Why he can win: Pedigree, talent, connections.
Why he can’t win: He’s winless since breaking his maiden in September.
Bolt d’Oro: Undefeated going into the Breeders’ Cup, he drew an outside post and got bounced around like a sneaker in a dryer. He wound up third, no match for Good Magic. Things have gotten rockier since, a pulled muscle slowed his progress early and owner/trainer Mick Ruis (who once fired his daughter as his trainer) replaced jockey Corey Nakatani with Javier Castellano. The San Felipe on March 12th is on the docket.
Why he can win: Big, strong colt whose two-year-old form is as good as it gets.
Why he can’t win: The road to the Derby takes precision, once things start going wrong, they never seem to go right.
Catholic Boy: Another one who hasn’t been seen in 2018. Once considered a turf horse, he broke that shackle with a polished score in the Remsen on the dirt to close his 2017 season. Born and bred for two turns, he’ll relish the distance and he’s in capable, albeit lesser-known, hands with former Todd Pletcher assistant Jonathan Thomas. He makes his three-year-old debut in the Sam Davis Saturday.
Why he can win: Pedigree, talent and handled with prudence thus far.
Why he can’t win: Racing luck.
Avery Island: He put another stakes win on the board with a professional effort in the Withers at Aqueduct last Saturday. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the son of Street Sense improved his record to three-for-five and looks poised to improve after a relatively quiet two-year-old season.
Why he can win: Showed improvement in the Withers.
Why he can’t win: He couldn’t handle Catholic Boy in the Remsen.
McKinzie: Another Baffert trainee, the son of Street Sense is three-for-three (he was put up in the Los Alamitos Futurity), including a sweet score in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on December 27th when Baffert and Smith decided to remove the blinkers. Baffert will decide later if he goes to the Rebel or the San Felipe, avoiding a clash with Solomini.
Why he can win: Versatile, he showed a new dimension in the Sham.
Why he can’t win: Split Solomini and Instilled Regard in the Los Alamitos Futurity.
Vino Rosso: Todd Pletcher unveiled this son of Curlin in a maiden win at Aqueduct in November, then clicked off an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs in December. Talented colt will put his stalking ability to the test in the Sam Davis.
Why he can win: Pletcher and Velaquez choreographed a similar programme with Always Dreaming last year.
Why he can’t win: Horses need more seasoning than two starts by January… uh, never mind.
Instilled Regard: Winner of the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on January 13th, the son of Arch took three tries to break his maiden but has improved in each start for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.
Why he can win: Hollendorfer is a master.
Why he can’t win: Had to flee California to garner his first stakes win.
Audible: Another one from the deep Pletcher barn, the son of Into Mischief made it three-in-a-row with a hammer blow in the recent Holy Bull Stakes, drawing off to score by five and a half-lengths. The sky’s the limit.
Why he can win: The sky’s the limit.
Why he can’t win: As we’ve learned, the sky can sometimes fall.
Noble Indy: Pletcher trainee is two-for-two with wins at Gulfstream Park over highly regarded rivals.
Why he can win: Undefeated, untested.
Why he can’t win: Lacks seasoning.
Beyond the Top 10
Principe Guilherme suffered his first loss in the Lecomte Stakes but look for him to rebound. Lombo used his speed to win the Robert E. Lewis on Saturday, jury’s still out.
Ayacara improved in his return to dirt, finishing second in the Lewis, keep him in mind as the races stretch. Mourinho bolsters Baffert’s arsenal, he stretched his speed to a mile in the Smarty Jones.
My Boy Jack finished third in his dirt debut in the Sham, we’ll give him another try. Firenze Fire needs to improve from his second in the Remsen.
Marconi finished close to Firenze Fire in the Withers, lightly-raced, he could still improve. Free Drop Billy looks one-paced but ran okay behind Audible. Enticed had no excuse in the Holy Bull.
Marylander Still Having Fun has a hill to climb but has looked good against weaker. Tiz Our Turn is just one-for-six but will only improve as the races get longer, maybe not the Derby, but perhaps the Belmont Stakes.
Snapper Sinclair could keep improving on the dirt for Asmussen. Mask was all the rage when he won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on January 6th, but has only one published breeze since, shaky.
Hopeful winner Sporting Chance hasn’t run since Saratoga, but is back on the work tab for D. Wayne Lukas. Copper Power won the Saratoga Special in August before hitting the shelf, he’s back breezing.
Impact Player has won his last two for Pletcher. Higher Power is rounding into form at Oaklawn Park. Vouch for Arnaud Delacour could step up and out in the Sam Davis.
Tiz Mischief, third in the Holy Bull, looks like he’s levelled out for a deep Dale Romans’ barn.
Retirement Fund, two-for-two, isn’t at the top of Asmussen’s depth chart but he would be in smaller barns. Hollywood Star has his chance to erase his Breeders’ Cup drubbing in the Davis.
Montauk, one-for-one, is a freak, but time is running out. Strike Power, two-for-two, is a freak, but needs to pass the distance test.
Oh, wait a minute, anybody seen Mendelssohn? Send me an update.