A COMPREHENSIVE and informative study into the risk factors associated with falls in Irish point-to-point racing is set to be published in the journal Comparative Exercise Physiology in the coming weeks.

THE STUDY

Titled ‘A retrospective case control study to investigate race level risk factors associated with horse falls in Irish point-to-point races,’ the paper, which runs to 12 pages, has been compiled by researchers at CAFRE Enniskillen and Hartpury University Centre in Gloucester.

Laura Smith, a lecturer on the Equine Management degree programme at CAFRE, Dr Jane Williams, Head of the Department of Animal and Agriculture at Hartpury, and Gillian Tabor, lecturer in Veterinary Physiotherapy also at Hartpury, have collated data from over 1,300 races featuring over 13,000 runners during the 2013/14 and 2014/15 point-to-point seasons, to investigate the risk factors of falls within point-to-point racing here.

Explaining how the study first came about, Smith undertook the research as part of a Masters programme and collaterally worked with both Williams and Tabor in Hartpury.

“There has not been a lot of research undertaken into Irish racing. Any that has taken place, has predominantly been focussed specifically on jockey’s injuries.

“At the college here, we would have a small yard with a couple of horses that would be point-to-pointed and many of the students that I have come across wanted to get their jockey’s license and go into that field, so it was an area of interest for myself and I think it is important enough to warrant a study.”

ANALYSIS

The research itself, which has involved over 18 months’ worth of work, is a retrospective case-control study, which involved analysing a total of 1,358 races to identify those races which included at least one horse fall unrelated to an unseated rider or a horse being brought down for inclusion in the study.

The 727 races which met this criteria, and were defined as ‘case races,’ were then brought forward to be included in the model which examined the races against a number of variables.

These variables which were included in the model, a research model similar to that used by Professor Chris Proudman’s research on the Grand National course at Aintree, was based on many of the variables which had been included in previous academic studies examining similar fall risks in other studies on National Hunt racing.

They range from the number of fences, runner and finishers, to the number of horses that pulled-up, the winning time, average speed, ground conditions and race category.

“It was a multivariable logistic regression model which is the type of model that would be used in epidemiological research to pick apart risk factors, so they would use the same methods when looking at diseases, for instance, and why people would contract diseases.

“You run the model and see if it is a fit. The thing that you can never know is that because there are so many factors that can affect the horse falling, you are never going to get a model that is a 100% fit. But the findings that come out of the model are interesting for pointing the way for further work. You can take those areas that it highlighted and pick apart those risk factors in more detail in a further study.”

NOTABLE RESULTS

The outputs certainly showed some notable results. Within the study period, there was a 54% chance of having at least one faller within a race, while the fall rate stood at 88 per 1,000 starters. The highest number of fallers was recorded on yielding-to-soft ground at 98 falls per 1,000 starters in comparison with heavy ground, where the fall rate was at the lower 78 per 1,000 start rate.

Of the particularly striking results, the model identified three risk factors which affected the chance of a horse falling: the number of runners in a race, the race category, and pulled-up horses.

The number of runners in a race increased the odds of horse falls by 38% for each additional runner in the race, while for each horse that pulled-up, it reduced the chances of the race containing at least one fallen horse by 25%. Unsurprisingly, all maiden races were found to have an increased fall rate in comparison with open races, with races for six-year-old maidens, and six and seven-year-old maidens exhibiting the most notable fall rate for each race category, one where 6.9 times increased odds of a fall were noted.

INITIAL FINDINGS

For Smith, the initial findings are just the first stage of the research process, with a second more selective study currently in progress.

“This initial work really is just a starting point. It points out some areas where there is an increased risk and it is that first step into saying, maybe if we focus on one area that comes up in the results, we can then do a bit more work into picking apart certain things in more detail.

“One of the main findings out of this stage was that of 88 falls per 1,000 starts and comparing that across to different forms of racing. In previous works on track racing in Britain, they found a range of between 43 to 75 falls per 1,000 starts, so it does sit higher than previous findings in that sense which is an interesting starting point.

“It was particularly interesting that the maiden races for six and seven-year-olds had the greatest chance of falling. Looking at different parts of the sport and different age categories of horses, there are going to be certain points where some of your better horses have left the sport.

“In the second part of the study, we have included information on the jockey and the jockey’s previous experience – the number of wins they have had, falls and unseated riders.

“The second study also breaks down at what point in the race most falls happen, and there were some interesting differences that we noted in relation to the number of fences in a race.”

FALL RATE

While the fall rate itself is above that which was identified in similar studies on British track racing, it is not one that has particularly alarmed Dr Williams, who has conducted extensive research into the area, gaining particular praise on her work into the courses at Cheltenham and Aintree.

“The fall rate is increased which you would expect with having that amateur base, but actually it is not double or anything excessive, so in that way you could say that it is promising and that the quality of training has come on leaps and bounds and has become more professional.

“There is almost categories of trainers within point-to-points, and there a lot of them who are now operating in the same way as someone who is sending horses to the track would be. The quality of the horses and the fitness of the horses is also a lot better.

“We see in the National Hunt data that novice horses are more likely to fall than the more experienced horses, and also the lower grade horses are more likely to fall than higher grade ones. Generally that pattern is following through.

“The experience of the jockey can also be quite influential and that is very similar to the Grand National study.”

That final point on jockey experience, which is a feature of further examination in their current second piece of work into point-to-points, will certainly be one of interest, particularly with the highlighted higher risk six and seven-year-old maidens now featuring so many of the novice rider races, and Williams asks whether these are the horses that should have the most experienced jockeys aboard.

“Looking at the risk factors of falls in whatever context it is, either for track racing or point-to-points, it is something which we can see having that positive industry impact. It can give information to help people decide if they need to make changes, or in these cases it can help ask questions.

“We don’t want it to be taken in a negative way because we see it as being a positive impact into the field saying, look here is more information, let’s make the right decisions based on it and that is how we in academia can work with industry.”

This is a sentiment echoed by Smith, who is also a supporter of point-to-point racing and hopes that her work can prove beneficial for the sport.

“The whole over-arching aim of this study is to facilitate it being a very sustainable sport. Like with any sport, they have done studies in British racing into ways that you can support the horses and the jockeys.

“Obviously there is a very big focus on reducing jockeys injuries and Dr Adrian McGoldrick is a very busy man. Without ruining the spectatorship of the sport and how enjoyable it is to watch, if there is anything that can be put in place that might possibly reduce injuries for both jockeys and horses to keep them in training and keep them racing for longer, it’s benefical.”