OAKLAWN SATURDAY

THE final Grade 1 trial for the Kentucky Derby takes place this evening and it’s one of the best with the Arkansas Derby featuring two winners of the divisions of the Rebel Stakes last month – Long Range Toddy and Omaha Beach – and the horse who may be Bob Baffert’s best chance, Improbable.

Since 2000, the Derby winner has gone on to win one Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby twice, the Preakness four times and three editions of Belmont Stakes.

Omaha Beach and Improbable are the likely favourites in the 100-points-to-the-winner trial, which attracted 11 three-year-olds.

Fox Hill Farm’s Omaha Beach currently has the final available spot in the Kentucky Derby field with 37.5 points but will miss out if he does not grab a top-four finish and collect some of the 100-40-20-10 points up for grabs. Improbable is 26th with 25 points.

Improbable and Omaha Beach ran in different divisions of the Rebel on March 16th. Omaha Beach beat another of Baffert’s top Kentucky Derby candidates, two-year-old champion Game Winner, by inches in the second division, following Improbable’s loss in the first edition to 8/1 shot Long Range Toddy, who runs again and who has a Kentucky Derby spot secured.

“We’re putting a small blinker on him because I think he needs a little focus,” Baffert told BloodHorse. The Rebel was his 2019 debut, so he should be at 100% now. Baffert has the services of Jose Ortiz for the first time.

Trainer Richard Mandella tries for his first victory in the Run for the Roses with Omaha Beach. He broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface by nine lengths before the Rebel win and a sloppy surface may help.

Jockey Jon Court, who at 58 is hopeful of becoming the oldest rider to win the Kentucky Derby, is aboard Long Range Toddy, the extra half-furlong may help but the outside stall is a problem.

SELECTION: IMPROBABLE

Next best: Omaha Beach

APPLE BLOSSOM

Tomorrow sees the Grade 1 action continue at Oaklawn with the Apple Blossom for fillies. It’s a humdinger of a race with three top fillies in the field of six.

Midnight Bisou and Wonder Gadot had to play second fiddle to Monomoy Girl last season, though the former got the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes after an inquiry over her big rival.

Steve Asmussen’s filly has won or placed in all 13 of her starts and Midnight Bisou has picked up where she left off by opening her four-year-old season with two wins including beating Elate in the Grade 2 Azeri last time.

Last year’s Queen’s Plate-winning filly Wonder Gadot met Midnight Bisou three times, with Wonder Gadot finishing second in the Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks, where Midnight Bisou was third, before the latter finished ahead of Wonder Gadot in the Cotillion and Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Dual Grade 1 winner Elate, figures to improve off her Azeri run. She had a better season in 2017 than last year when she only had the two runs, but her strong late runs can be a danger.

SELECTION: MIDNIGHT BISOU

Next best: Elate

KEENELAND SATURDAY

Rushing Fall, unbeaten in three starts over the grass course at Keeneland, headlines a field of eight for the Grade 1 Coolmore Jenny Wiley for fillies and mares over a mile and half a furlong.

Trained by Chad Brown, Rushing Fall will have two stablemates to contend with as Brown also entered multiple graded stakes winner Rymska and Martin Schwartz’s Grade 1-placed Onthemoonagain.

Javier Castellano, who has ridden Rushing Fall in all seven of her starts, has the mount Saturday and will break from post position two.

Irad Ortiz Jr. will ride Rymska, who comes off a victory in the Grade 2 Hillsborough at Tampa Bay Downs on March 9th.