IT is a shame that Postponed had to be taken out of this afternoon’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, that a poor scope on Wednesday ruled him out. It would have been good to see him take on the youngsters, the three-year-olds and the four-year-olds, in his bid to become [startling statistic alert 1:] the first five-year-old to win it since Daylami in 1999, and [startling statistic alert 2:] the first dual King George winner since Swain in 1997/98.
We have had King George defections before. Last year, Golden Horn, Flintshire and The Corsican came out because of the soft ground, which paved the way for Postponed to get home by a head from Eagle Top on ground that was thought to be unsuitable for Postponed as well. Flintshire also defected in 2014, St Nicholas Abbey and Al Kazeem missed it in 2013.
As is often the case when a high-profile horse misses a big race, what you lose in terms of profile you gain in terms of competitiveness. We are left with a re-match between the first two home in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, with Derby fourth Wings Of Desire adding the classic interest.
Dartmouth got home by a head from Highland Reel in the Hardwicke, but there are reasons for believing that Aidan O’Brien’s horse can exact his revenge today.
A couple of things about that Hardwicke Stakes. Firstly, it was run on easy ground, which probably wasn’t ideal for Dartmouth, but which was a definite negative for Highland Reel. The Ballydoyle colt is all fast ground.
Also, Highland Reel got warm before the Royal Ascot race. He has got warm in the pre-race exchanges before, like when he finished third in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley last October, but it was not a positive that he got fairly warm at the Royal meeting. On top of that, drawn wide, he was wider and keener than ideal through the early stages of the race, so it was to his credit that he was able to engage in battle as he did with Dartmouth through the final two furlongs of the race.
The Queen’s horse leaned on him a little from the furlong pole, he carried Highland Reel from the centre of the track towards the inside rail. The stewards determined afterwards that it didn’t make the different between victory and defeat, and that they would not disqualify the Queen’s horse at the Royal meeting, but it was sufficiently significant for them to ask the question, to hold the enquiry.
Finally, that was Highland Reel’s first run since he had been beaten in the QEII Cup at Hong Kong in April, whereas Dartmouth had won the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in the May, after winning on his seasonal debut at Chelmsford in April.
There is enough in there to suggest that Highland Reel can reverse placings today.
A dual Group/Grade 1 winner, Aidan O’Brien’s horse is probably generally an under-rated horse, possibly because those top-level wins have been gained abroad, in the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington Park in America and in the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin in Hong Kong.
For some European context, the Galileo colt beat Flintshire into second place in that Hong Kong Vase last December, and Flintshire, who was going for back-to-back wins in the Hong Kong Vase, had finished second to Golden Horn in the Arc on his previous run.
Highland Reel will love the fast ground today, he has Ryan Moore for company and we know that he goes well at Ascot. Aidan O’Brien’s other representative, Sir Isaac Newton, is also interesting at a big price, stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. He is an improved horse now, he is starting to fulfill his potential, and he has run big races on both of his runs at Ascot, including winning the Wolferton Handicap at the Royal meeting on his most recent visit.
That said, he may not be able to beat his stable companion, and you can easily argue that Highland Reel should be favourite for today’s race, not Dartmouth.
GIGASET INTERNATIONAL
It is difficult to tell what should be favourite for the 26-runner Gigaset International Handicap, but Jack Dexter could out-perform odds of 25/1 by a fair way.
Jim Goldie’s horse’s last two runs have been eye-catching. On his penultimate one, in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot, he had to be checked a little in his run at the two-furlong pole, yet he finished off his race well on the far side to finish within five lengths of the winner Outback Traveller, who raced on the favoured near side.
Then last time, dropped back to five furlongs and returned to Ascot, he again finished off his race well on the unfavoured far side to take fourth place, just a total of three-parts of a length behind the winner Royal Birth.
He is stepping up in trip to seven furlongs today, but the manner in which he finished off his race in the Wokingham over six suggested that he could improve for a step back up to seven. He has run over seven furlongs on two occasions. On the first, he finished second in a maiden on his racecourse debut at Musselburgh. On his second, he won a big apprentices’ handicap at Ascot over seven furlongs, over today’s course and distance.
He has been raised 1lb for his latest run, so he is 1lb well-in today but, more importantly, he is racing off a mark of 101, which is 13lb lower than his peak. He is seven, but he is in top form these days, we know that he goes well at Ascot and he is handling fast ground well now.
His draw on the wing in stall one is not ideal, but there is potential pace over there with Don’t Bother Me and Whitman both drawn low, so he should get a nice tow into the race. And Dougie Costello is a good booking.
Recommended
Highland Reel, 1 point win, 5/2 (generally)
Jack Dexter, 1 point each-way, 25/1 (generally)