Aintree Saturday

1.30 Download The App At Virgin Bet Handicap Chase 1m 7f 176y

The form of the novices’ handicap chase in which The Last Day ran at Newbury a year ago is extremely solid, and he was the only one who looked like getting to grips with the tearaway Knocnanuss that day, sitting second when falling at the last having jumped really well on the whole.

Three of his rivals there have since won off much higher marks, 11lbs higher in the case of the winner, 8lbs higher in the case of the runner-up, while Clondaw Castle was 12lbs higher when beaten half a length in the Byrne Group Chase at Ascot last week.

The Last Day is just 3lbs higher than at Newbury where he shaped extremely well, and he backed that up when just caught by subsequent winner Whatswrongwithyou at Ffos Las in January, a race he would almost certainly have won had his rider not asked him to fiddle the third last when he had the winner in trouble. He had a confidence-boosting win at Carlisle in March, and looks capable of doing serious damage off his current mark.

2.05 Virgin Bet Handicap Chase 2m 3f 200y

Venetia Williams has won this race twice since 2010, and can make it three wins in a decade courtesy of Cepage. Williams has had a couple of low key seasons of late, but she can usually be relied upon to have her chasers hard fit after an absence, and her six chase runners in the last fortnight who were returning from a break (60 days or more) have recorded form figures of 1F312, with the faller clear at the time.

That suggests all is well again with the King’s Caple yard, and Cepage can be expected to run up to his best. Given his best came when just beaten by Frodon in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham, with a 15-length gap back to the previous year’s hero (and a winner on his next start) Guitar Pete, then he should make a very bold show off a 4lb-higher mark. The son of the much-missed Saddler Maker is still only seven, and is entitled to improve further

2.40 Pertemps Network (Supporting BTRC) Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) 3m 149y

Many will remember Suzy Smith’s game mare Material World finishing second in the final of this series in 2007 despite only having one eye, and her daughter Rosy World looks a really interesting proposition now stepped up to three miles for the first time. The Shirocco mare stayed on very gamely to be beaten by a neck at Plumpton last time having won on her handicap debut at the same track in March.

Those runs suggest that she will do even better granted this stiffer test, while she was a useful sort in bumpers, and open to plenty more progress as a hurdler.

Wincanton Saturday

1.50 Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f 82y

Not the easiest race to unravel, but it may pay to take a chance on Sixty’s Belle based on the steady improvement she showed for Alan King last season, and while it’s a little worrying that she has been sold to leave that yard since, there is no obvious reason to see anything untoward in that, especially as she was already pencilled in to be sold before winning at Newton Abbot in May.

Most eayes are turned to the flat at the time she scored there, but it was an impressive performance, and undoubtedly a career best. Before that, she was an excellent second in the TBA mares’ hurdle final at Newbury, which has been elevated to Grade 2 status. She’s taken a hike in the weights for those runs, but the mare she beat at Newton Abbot has been in the frame in her subsequent starts behind the highly touted pair Silver Forever and Sporting John, and was beaten much farther by Sixty’s Belle.

If that form is reliable, then the handicapper has not been nearly harsh enough.

2.25 John Romans Park Homes ‘Rising Stars’ Novices’ Steeplechase (Grade 2) 2m 4f 35y

Reserve Tank may not be a betting proposition here, given his yard’s not exactly firing on all cylinders, and he was beaten by an inferior rival on his chase debut, but it will be a disappointment if he doesn’t take very high rank among this season’s novices given how he thrived in the spring, winning Grade 1s at this trip at Aintree and Punchestown. He was a little fresh at Chepstow, but the outings should have taken that excess fizz out of him, and he jumped well enough there to think he would make a smooth transition.

He should get the strong pace he needs courtesy of Solomon Grey and should have too many guns for that useful rival in the straight.

3.00 Unibet Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) 1m 7f 65y

The Elite Hurdle is an interesting event in that there is invariably a four-year-old at or near the head of the market who took high order as a juvenile, and invariably it, or they, get beaten, with 4/6 favourite Sceau Royal winning the weakest of renewals a few years ago, but the only one of his age group to triumph since the mighty Well Chief in 2004.

This year there are no less than three of last season’s juvenile crop in a race with only five possible winners, so it ought to be easy for them, but given the way they have been overestimated in this race in the past, I would want to keep Grand Sancy on side. He was booked for second when taking an ugly fall at the last in a listed hurdle on his return at Kempton, and while that might not look the ideal prep, it will have blown away the cobwebs.

Don’t underestimate the other older runner Brandon Castle, by the way, he is capable of slipping this field given his preferred style of aggressive front-running, but the Nicholls horse is favoured all things considered.

3.35 Badger Beers Silver Trophy Handicap Chase (Listed) 3m 1f 30y

I’m not gong to be dogmatic about the Badger Beers, but I’d be very concerned about White Moon’s jumping, and while I was not in the camp falling over themselves to back Give Me A Copper at Cheltenham in March on Paul Nicholls’s say-so, if you believe the Master of Manor Farm that he believes this horse is well-handicapped, then this is a much more opportune time to back him.

Bryony Frost was always going to ride Present Man, so there’s nothing to read in the riding arrangements, and Give Me A Copper is sure to be cherry-ripe for this given his trainer’s record at the meeting, and in this race in particular.

Recommended

The Last Day 1.30 Aintree – 2pts win @ 3/1 (general)

Rosy World 2.40 Aintree – 2pts win @ 9/2 (SkyBet, William Hill)

Sixty’s Belle 1.50 Wincanton – 1pt win @ 10/1 (William Hilll, BetVictor)

Grand Sancy 3.00 Wincanton – 2pts win @ 4/1 (general)

Rory tipped Wetherby winner The Worlds End @ 7/2