Donn McClean

YOU can see why Coo Star Sivola has been well backed for the two-mile-five-furlong handicap chase at Cheltenham this afternoon.

Nick Williams’ horse ran well in a novices’ chase at Cheltenham’s December meeting on his previous run. He just couldn’t match the 147-rated Kalondra for pace between the final two fences, but he kept on well to take second place, with the 145-rated Movewiththetimes back in third and the 141-rated Jameson back in fourth.

He was getting 5lb from two of his rivals that day, but basic handicapping arithmetic suggests that he could be a really well handicapped horse today, racing off a mark of 135. As well as that, he is rated 140 over hurdles, so he is 5lb lower over fences, and he has run in just three chases, so he has scope for progression in this sphere.

That said, he has been well found in the market now, and Ballyhill may represent the value against him at around twice his odds. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse is not as obviously well handicapped as Coo Star Sivola, but he was only raised 5lb for his win at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, and that was not harsh.

He only beat Shantou Flyer by a length and a half in the end, but he was probably value for a fair bit more than that. He gave away plenty of ground by going wide that day, yet he made nice progress down the hill and around the home turn to jump the second last fence three lengths clear. He had the race in the bag at that stage, and he probably idled on the run-in, which allowed Shantou Flyer to get close.

Shantou Flyer is a talented horse. Racing off a mark that was only 3lb higher than the mark off which he won that Cheltenham race on New Year’s Day last year, with the talented Mitch Bastyan taking off 5lb and racing in first-time cheekpieces, he probably put up a career-best performance that day. He is a player today, but he is only 2lb better off with Ballyhill today – netting Mitch Bastyan’s 5lb claim against James Bowen’s 3lb – and that may not be sufficient to allow him exact his revenge on the Twiston-Davies horse.

Ballyhill fell at Aintree on his penultimate run, and he ran a lack-lustre race there in November, but his run on New Year’s Day was much more like it, and it held the promise of more to come. He is only seven and has run just five times over fences. He has the potential for more.

He goes well on soft ground and he goes well at Chetlenham. On his only other run over fences there before New Year’s Day, he finished third in a Grade 2 novices’ chase behind North Hill Harvey and Sceau Royal. That is strong novice chasing form. Jamie Bargary gets on well with him and is good value for his claim. He should run well.

COTSWOLD CHASE

It will be fascinating to see how Bristol De Mai fares in the Cotswold Chase, as he bids to bounce back from a disappointing run in the King George. Of course, he is better on soft or heavy ground at Haydock than he is anywhere else, under any other conditions, but he is still very talented away from Haydock. He won a Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, he finished second in a Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle and, importantly, he finished second in a JLT Chase at Cheltenham.

He may well win today, but he may not have as much in hand as the market suggests. Even on official ratings, he is rated just 3lb superior to Tea For Two, and he has only 2lb in hand of The Last Samuri on these terms.

Definitly Red has a little bit to find on official ratings, but he could be the value of the race. Brian Ellison’s horse was a high-class staying handicap chaser last season, he won the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster in March off a mark of 149, when he had The Last Samuri 14 lengths behind him in second place.

IMPROVEMENT

The Last Samuri is 18lb better off today, but Definitly Red has probably improved since then. He probably put up a career-best performance last time when he was impressive in beating Cloudy Dream and Flying Angel in the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase at Aintree last month.

His best form is admittedly on flat tracks like Wetherby and Aintree and Doncaster, and he has been well beaten on three occasions at Cheltenham. That is a worry, but those three runs were at the Cheltenham Festival, two of them on goodish ground. He should be happier on the softer ground today, and he did win a bumper on soft ground at Cheltenham’s November meeting in 2014.

He stays well, he goes well on the ground and Danny Cook’s record on him reads 212111P31, the P recorded in the Grand National after he had been hampered at Becher’s. There are small concerns about the track, but they are factored into his odds. He remains progressive, and he could run a big race.

Recommended

BALLYHILL, 1 point win, 13/2 (generally)

DEFINITLY RED, 1 point win, 11/2 (generally)