THE more deeply you delve into today’s Ladbrokes Trophy, the more cases you can make.
Cabaret Queen and Borice obviously go there with big chances and with similar profiles. Cabaret Queen was seriously impressive in winning the Munster National last time, and you can make a case Willie Mullins’ mare, even off a 20lb higher mark. She is only seven and that was just her 10th chase, and her second run for Willie Mullins.
Borice stayed on well to win the Galway Plate the last time we saw him race, and Gordon Elliott’s horse should be better suited by the longer trip of today’s contest. He is up 11lbs, but he could step forward again.
That said, the two big Irish horses have been well found by the market, and Dingo Dollar is interesting at a bigger price than both.
Alan King’s horse ran a big race in last year’s renewal to finish third behind Sizing Granite. Always prominent that day, he jumped and travelled well, but perhaps a little too exuberantly on the soft ground.
He and Sizing Tennessee came away from their rivals at the top of the home straight, at which point it appeared as if he was going just as well as the winner, but he tired from the third last fence and was actually caught by Elegant Escape for second.
Warmed up
You can be sure that today’s race has again been Alan King’s plan for Dingo Dollars. He warmed up for today in the same handicap hurdle that he used as his prep race last year, the Pertemps qualifier at Newbury’s meeting in early November, and he ran very well in that.
He led early and he kept on after he had been passed to take third place behind Diablo De Rouhet. That should have put him spot on for today.
There are three crucial differences between this year and last year. One, he was only six last year, he is seven this year. He is a year older and a year stronger, and he should be better equipped for the demands of a Ladbrokes Trophy.
Two, the ground will probably be better this year than it was last year, and that should suit him better. And three, he gets to compete off a handicap rating of 146 today, 2lbs lower than last year’s mark. He should be a stronger horse this year, yet he gets to compete off a lower mark.
Alan King did this in 2015, he took Smad Place back to Newbury a year after he had been beaten in the then Hennessy and, racing off the same handicap rating of 155, he won it. He could repeat the feat this year with Dingo Dollar.
Intermediate
Earlier in the day, Elvis Mail could run well in the listed intermediate hurdle.
Nick Alexander’s horse had good form as a novice hurdler last season, he was in among Rouge Vif and Windsor Avenue and Getaway Trump in a Grade 2 contest at Kelso, and he wasn’t beaten far by Galvin at Ayr.
He only won by three and a half lengths at Ayr on his debut this season, but he probably had much more in hand over runner-up Leoncavallo than that. He travelled like a classy horse from a long way out, and it always looked like he was going to prevail from the point at which he moved up to join the leaders at the second last flight. He probably had a fair bit more in hand than the bare winning margin.
The handicapper raised him by 6lbs to a mark of 138, but that was not harsh. As well as the ease with which he made his ground, and the amount that he probably had in hand, that was only his sixth run over hurdles, so he should be able to progress anyway.
Farfan Du Seuil was back in fourth place that day, but even on 9lbs better terms, it is difficult to see him reversing places.
Elusive Belle is a bigger danger.
A full-sister to Peter Fahey’s exciting novice hurdler Soviet Pimpernel (they are both by Elusive Pimpernel out of Soviet Belle), who goes in the Royal Bond Hurdle tomorrow, Nicky Henderson’s mare was progressive last season. She was well beaten in the mares’ novices’ hurdle at Cheltenham, but bounced back and won at Warwick on her final run last season.
Epatante was also progressive last season before she was also well beaten in the mares’ novices’ hurdle, but both mares have been well found by the market, whereas Elvis Mail appears to be still a little under the radar.
Recommended
Elvis Mail, 1 point win, 2.25 Newbury, 6/1 (generally)
Dingo Dollar, 1 point each-way, 3.00 Newbury, 14/1 (generally)