Rory Delargy
CHELTENHAM SATURDAY
12:45 RYMAN NOVICES’ CHASE 2M 4F 166Y
Jameson looks something to bet on here, even though Movewiththetimes possesses more precocious talent. The key piece of form in unlocking this puzzle is the race in which Finian’s Oscar beat Movewiththetimes and Coo Star Sivola at this track last month, and on paper the Nicholls horse ran a fine race, looking the winner at the last before being outsprinted or outbattled up the hill.
The problem is that the race was rather messy, and the hope that the form could be pinned to the winner’s big reputation took a knock when Finian’s Oscar ran poorly at Sandown. It may be that the Sandown run was an aberration, but he was far from convincing at times at this venue, either, and there must be a strong chance that the form is overrated.
That’s an accusation which can’t be levelled at Jameson, who was rated lower than his main rivals over hurdles, but has taken to his new discipline very well, winning a competitive handicap at Sandown, and doing very well to finish second at Newbury last time after a bad early error.
On the whole his jumping is very sound, and he is very strong in a finish, which could give him an edge over the flashier Movewiththetimes, who has flattered to deceive with his finishing effort on more than one occasion.
1:20 JUNIOR JUMPERS HANDICAP CHASE 2M 62Y
Question marks hang over most of these, and it’s probably safe to assume that top-weight Sire De Grugy isn’t the force of old, but he’s clearly harder to get fit than was once the case, and he won off a higher mark at Ascot last year on the back of a last-place finish in the Old Roan Chase.
He finished last in the corresponding Ascot event this time around having had a run, but that came in a bog in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, and was perhaps more harm than good in retrospect.
He’s clearly vulnerable against improvers in handicaps at his age, but Gino Trail couldn’t cope with his current mark in the Red Rum at Aintree in the spring, and it wouldn’t do to go overboard about his game win in a race run to suit at Wetherby last time.
Bun Doran, on the other hand, is interesting, as he finished well ahead of Gino Trail at Aintree, and meets that rival on the same terms, which makes his case obvious, while he’s only a six-year-old, and clearly open to further improvement. Bun Doran is bred to want a trip, but coped really well dropping to two miles in the Red Rum, and is unexposed at this trip.
He appears to face a mammoth task from out of the weights, but Pearls Legend won this race in brave fashion two years ago, and hinted at a return to form when second at Ludlow last time.
He’s one to keep in mind if allowed to drift to a big price, and has never shirked a battle. Theo could be a fly in the ointment returning from a break, and fits the bill as a rapid improver, but this represents a much stiffer task than he’s faced to date, and he could be overbet on profile.
1:55 CASPIAN CAVIAR GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) 2M 4F 166Y
A slightly disappointing turnout, with most of the 11-strong field renewing rivalry from the BetVictor Gold Cup last month. It didn’t look vintage form given that race’s rich history, and I’d be happy to oppose the horses who have been pushed up in the weights by the handicapper, namely Splash Of Ginge, Starchitect and Le Prezien. Clan Des Obeaux is a conundrum, as he has the scope to make up into a top-class chaser, but he has absolutely no handicap experience, and has only raced once in a double-figure field in his life, when sixth in the Triumph Hurdle. He was very impressive at Haydock last time, and could outclass his rivals, but he’s got a slightly in-and-out profile, and the fact he has twice been beaten at this track having looked sure to win means he’s hard to justify backing at a short price.
King’s Odyssey has the look of one laid out for this (travelling well when falling a year ago), and he’s well handicapped on the pick of his form, but he would be of more interest if the going was very testing,
Of the BetVictor vanquished, Foxtail Hill probably failed to handle conditions, at least when allied to an aggressive ride, and he’s always dangerous when left alone, while Guitar Pete lost his chance when badly hampered at the first, and was the one who caught my eye at the prices in midweek.
The 20/1 about Nicky Richards’ runner has dried up, but he remains of interest given his finishing position was no indication of merit last time. The likelihood of better ground than for the November meeting really brings Ballyalton into the equation. He travelled as well as anything in the BetVictor, but found his stamina ebbing away in the testing conditions, but he should see things out better now despite the marginally longer trip, and he’s always been at his best away from the mud.
Lightly raced for his age due to injury, he has a very good record at the track, and looks sure to give punters a good run for their money.
3:05 UNIBET INTERNATIONAL HURDLE (GRADE 2) 2M 179Y
There is a notion that The New One is on the downgrade, but it’s not one I can see any justification for, and he can get the better of Melon assuming this is run to bring his stamina into play.
He ran a cracker in the Greatwood last time off top-weight, and would have been right in the mix but for Richard Johnson tracking William H Bonney into the straight and giving up the favoured outside rail. His record in this race speaks for itself, and he slammed My Tent Or Yours conceding even more weight a year ago, so need not fear that rival as long as he can again make this about stamina.
In a speed test, he’s shown that he’s vulnerable, but his record below the top level is an enviable one, and he’s got a big chance of edging past Relkeel and Bird’s Nest in winning this contest for the fourth time.
Melon will be popular given his reputation, but the notion that he belied inexperience in the Supreme doesn’t take into account how Willie Mullins tests his novice hurdlers at home, and although open to improvement in his second season, he has plenty to find strictly on form.
RECOMMENDED
JAMESON 12:45 Cheltenham -7/2
BUN DORAN 1:20 Cheltenham 100/30
BALLYALTON 1:55 Cheltenham - 8/1
THE NEW ONE 3:05 Cheltenham - 2/1 generally