Donn McClean

SO we’re back talking about the effect of the draw as opposed to the jig-jog walk-ins.

There was plenty of money for Gabrial’s Kaka on Thursday as soon as he drew stall 22 of 22 in today’s Betway Lincoln, and there was more for him when owner Dr Marwan Koukash said that it was the perfect draw.

Nobody knows for certain what effect the draw is going to have. Last year’s winner, Ocean Tempest, emerged from stall three on soft ground, but he edged his way over to the near side, and actually finished almost next to the stands rail. The horses who chased him home were drawn, respectively, 22, 20, 18, 14 and 16.

In 2013, in a race that was also run on soft ground, the first two home were drawn three and one and finished out in the centre of the track, but none of the next nine home were drawn lower than 10, and they all raced near side.

In 2012, on good ground, they were all over the place. The first 10 home emerged from, respectively, stalls 12, 21, nine, two, seven, one, six, four, 16 and 20. On balance, you probably want to be drawn near side but, in truth, it is a marginal call.

The trick with the Lincoln used to be to find the group horse who was masquerading as a handicapper. (It was always important to use the word masquerading.)

That usually meant looking up last year’s three-year-olds and trying to predict which one of them could end up in group races later in the season.

That theory has taken a few knocks of late, mind you, with five and six-year-olds winning the last four renewals. Although, you can argue that Ocean Tempest was at least a listed-race horse racing off a mark of 102 last year, given that he won two listed races afterwards.

But he was a five-year-old last year, not a four-year-old. Guess how many times he has run since? 18. Today will be his 19th run in 366 days. He has been some servant to John Ryan and his connections.

That said, it is easy to make the case for the four-year-olds this year. Mange All, Zarwaan and Gm Hopkins have dominated the Lincoln market all week, and it is easy to see all three playing a role.

You do have to have a fair bit in hand of the handicapper if you are to win the Lincoln, and this triumvirate are the most likely. Look beyond the last four renewals, and four-year-olds won the previous three and four of the previous six.

And of the four-year-olds, Gm Hopkins looks the most interesting. Even if he were only capable today of repeating the performance that he put up when he won the Silver Cambridgeshire at Newmarket last September, it would take him close.

He travelled well through that race, and he picked up like a good horse inside the two-furlong pole, coming clear of a good horse in Munaaser, with Mange All almost four lengths behind him.

Mange All hasn’t run since, whereas Gm Hopkins has run twice, with the net result that Gm Hopkins meets William Haggas’ horse on just 3lb worse terms despite the fact that he beat him by four lengths. It does not make sense that Gm Hopkins is available at the bigger price this morning.

The explanation lies in those two runs, both defeats. However, there is mitigation. The first was at York on soft ground, and you can always forgive a horse a moderate run on soft ground at York. The second was at Nottingham in early November, at the back end of the season when John Gosden’s horse may have had enough.

If you put a line through those two runs - and they weren’t actually that poor at all, they were more a little disappointing than poor - Gm Hopkins looks good value at 6/1 for today’s race.

If he hadn’t run in those two races, it is probable that he would be clear favourite, racing off a mark of 99.

He has lots more in his favour besides. He is still a lightly-raced horse, he still has the potential to go a fair way beyond his handicap rating of 99. He is trained by John Gosden, whose horses are in good form and who sent out a similar type in Expresso Star to win the Lincoln in 2009.

On top of that, he goes well on good ground and on easy ground, so any overnight rain would be fine, and he is probably well drawn in stall 21, next door to Gabrial’s Kaka and to Boom And Bust, who generally likes to go forward early. It is probable that Gosden will have him primed for this, and he should run a big race.

There probably wasn’t much overnight rain at Meydan, but it still doesn’t make sense that The Grey Gatsby is not favourite for the Dubai Turf.

Kevin Ryan’s horse is one of those horses who has not been afforded due recognition yet for his achievements, because his form last year is top class. He won the Dante, he won the Prix du Jockey Club, he was only beaten two lengths by Australia in the Juddmonte International, and he won the Irish Champion Stakes, beating Australia and Trading Leather and Mukhadram and Al Kazeem. That is top class middle-distance form.

The French horse Solow is favourite and, while the Singspiel gelding is a high-class and progressive individual, and while he has won his last four races, his form falls a long way short of The Grey Gatsby’s. He has never run in a Group 1 race, for example, whereas the Kevin Ryan horse has run in six, and he has won two of them.

The Mastercraftsman colt is dropping down in trip by a furlong, but that should provide the fast pace that suits him so well. His draw in stall six is fine, right in the middle of the field, and Ryan Moore is obviously a massive asset.

RECOMMENDED

GM HOPKINS, 3.45 Doncaster, 1 point each-way, 6/1 (generally)

THE GREY GATSBY 3.40 Meydan, 1 point win, 3/1 (generally)

RECENT WINNERS

Donn’s two recommended bets last week, Kalane (SP 10/1) and Rebel Rebellion (SP 7/1) both won.