MUSSELBURGH

SATURDAY

14:25 ROYAL MILE HANDICAP 1M 2Y

There are several who want to race handy here, and Musselburgh favours front runners much more than most tracks, so the question is who will lead, which poses a second question, in whether the front-runners will go too hard, and benefit those who decline the gallop.

The obvious answer to the first question, by dint of an inside berth and a confirmed run style is Mark Johnston’s Reggae Runner, but that colt has been allowed to set fairly modest fractions on recent starts, and I think that Lincoln Park is the most likely to go hard in front, and that makes him of interest despite running poorly at Newbury on his return. That outing had the look of a sharpener to me, and the son of Kyllachy weakened as if the run was needed.

He’d won his first two starts in nurseries last year in very game fashion, and while there is an obvious chance that he lacks the potential of a couple of these, that may just play into his hands, with the other jockeys perhaps more likely to give him some rope given his capitulation last time.

His wins have been on softer ground, but it’s unlikely that the ground conditions alone explain his improvement, landing a hefty gamble as he did on debut for Mick Appleby at Pontefract.

He’s clearly suited by a turning track, produced good speed figures for his nursery wins, and may well be underestimated due to his recent flop and apparent preference for deeper ground.

15:00 SCOTTISH SPRINT CUP HANDICAP 5F 1Y

It’s often presumed that a high draw, that is close to the stands rails is a big advantage in five-furlong sprints at Musselburgh, and there was a time when that theory held water.

Analysis of results in big fields show that the bias is nowhere near as strong as expected, and pace is a much more important factor.

It’s possible for hold-up horses drawn high to win in big fields, but with the field tending to converge together at the dog-leg at halfway, there is a clear advantage conferred on those who can avoid that bottle-neck, and that frequently means those racing towards the middle of the track at that stage, and prominent racers in low to middle stalls have the best record.

A Momentofmadness, winner of the Portland Handicap at Doncaster in the autumn, heads the shortlist with conditions in his favour.

He is best on a sound surface on turf, has more pace than those drawn around him, and looks the likeliest overall leader with the prospect of a clear run looking assured, and while the handicapper has done his bit to halt his progress, the vagaries of the Musselburgh track will give him a big chance of defying his big weight.

Danny Tudhope rides this track extremely well and looks an excellent booking for the Charlie Hills-trained six-year-old.

Marnie James is the other who I shortlisted, but I’d want a slightly bigger price than the early quotes for Iain Jardine’s runner, who is coming off the back of a poor run at Meydan, which isn’t factored into his price as yet.

15:35 QUEEN’S CUP STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) 1M 5F 216Y

Kelly’s Dino was a tad disappointing in the Rosebery Handicap at Kempton last time, but he did similar on his previous visit to the Sunbury venue, and immediately bounced back to win his next turf start, so the chances are that this consistent and reliable type will be back to his best after that rare blip.

He’s only 1lb higher than when a fine third of 18 at York’s Ebor meeting, and his career record on right-handed turf tracks reads 1121, with the defeat coming by a neck in a decent conditions race against higher-rated rivals at Deauville last summer.

He’s gained all his wins under Ben Curtis, seems best on a sound surface and is well drawn to take a prominent pitch.

He improved throughout last season, and is still relatively unexposed at middle distances, so looks a big price when everything is taken into consideration.

KEMPTON SATURDAY

14:00 BET AT RACINGTV.COM HANDICAP (5F)

Now here is a track and trip with a bias towards those taking the shortest route, and stalls one and two over the minimum trip at Kempton beat a significantly greater proportion of rivals than any other berth, largely due to the sharper inner track being utilised.

Foxy Forever missed an engagement at Newmarket on Thursday when the good to firm ground was deemed unsuitable despite all his turf wins in Britain coming on ground described in identical terms, and he looks to have much better claims now back over five furlongs at Kempton, where he scored off a 5lb higher mark in October 2017.

On that occasion he was drawn in the inside stall, whereas he’s drawn two here, with hold-up performer Tomily on his inner. That should ensure that he gets a clean run up the rail, and he’s handicapped to take full advantage.

NOTTINGHAM SATURDAY

17:35 LEAFLABS HANDICAP 5F 8Y

Cobweb Catcher was pick of the paddock on his return at Windsor recently, looking a proper sprinting type against a largely modest bunch, and while he could finish only second in the end, his rider’s ploy of grabbing the usually favoured rail looked to backfire, with the winner coming down the outside and the middle of the track seemingly quicker than the inside.

Rod Millman’s charge looks worth persevering with at a lowly level, and a repeat of his latest effort could be enough to win.

There was enough in what he did at Windsor to suggest he’ll rate a fair bit higher, however, and while Millman’s strike-rate is modest in recent weeks, the horses are running perfectly well, and he can end a frustrating spell now.

RECOMMENDED

FOXY FOREVER 2:00 Kempton, 2pts win @ 6/1 (Hills)

A MOMENTOFMADNESS 3:00 Musselburgh, 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Hills, BetVictor)

KELLY’S DINO 3:35 Musselburgh, 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Hills, BetVictor)