Ascot Saturday

14:30 Chesham Stakes (Listed) 7f

Given this is a race which has become of some importance in developing Aidan O’Brien’s better juveniles, the fact that he runs Lope Y Fernandez after that colt ran out a most convincing winner on his Curragh debut is a sure sign that he is out of the ordinary. On the other hand, it’s also clear that Godolphin have a smart prospect in the shape of Pinatubo, who didn’t get the credit he deserved for winning the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom last time.

That race was set up for him with Misty Grey going off far too hard and Oh Purple Reign failing to cope with the camber, but he was ultimately very impressive, and posted an excellent speed figure. He has looked on both starts as if he will be a better horse when tackling seven furlongs, and the O’Brien colt will know he’s had a race, at least.

15:05 Jersey Stakes (Group 3) 7f

Space Blues made an excellent impression when beating Urban Icon in the Surrey Stakes at Epsom three weeks ago. While I believe the runner-up is good enough to make the frame here, it’s extremely hard to oppose the Godolphin colt given the way he quickened from off the pace in a race where such tactics weren’t showcased to their maximum.

Despite his relatively poor position in a race which became a sprint, Space Blues never looked like he wouldn’t get there, which says much for his raw talent. He will be all the better for that success, and looks the clear pick of the field in this Group 3.

15:40 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 1m 3f 211y

My initial inclination was to side with Southern France as I’m sure he has more to offer at around this trip, but he also has a little to find in form terms and just a fair price. Worse than that, however, is his draw in stall one, which may not be fatal, but is of no benefit to him given his style of running.

In the end, I’m prepared to forgive Lah Ti Dar her flop in the Coronation Cup given she patently failed to handle the downhill run to Tattenham Corner. She is a bigger price than Southern France despite beating him fairly decisively when the pair filled the places behind Kew Gardens in the St Leger last September.

16:20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) 6f

The key to this contest is appreciating that the very best five-furlong performers in Europe are an altogether better bunch than the best six-furlong horses, for all the latter group enjoys rather more depth of talent. Put more simply, Blue Point has this race at his mercy after beating Battaash on Tuesday.

The selection is fully effective at five furlongs, but is also a top-notch performer over this slightly longer trip. He will get the race run to suit being berthed next to Kachy, and he will be ridden to produce his trademark turn of foot late in the day.

He effectively outstayed Battaash in a thrilling King’s Stand. I don’t think he faces the same threat in this contest, with the only doubt being that the stiff finish over the extra furlong is probably the ceiling of his own stamina.

That said, his only defeat here, which includes a defeat of Harry Angel over C&D and a victory on soft ground over the stiff six, came in a stellar renewal of the Commonwealth Cup when he fought out the finish with Caravaggio and Harry Angel.

His best form, which he produces regularly now he’s fully mature, will be good enough.

17:00 Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 6f

There are myriad ways to look at the Wokingham, but my approach is a simplistic one, and that is to focus on a well-drawn, well-handicapped C&D winner and hope for the best. Despite winning two of his three starts in handicaps off 109 and then 111 in the Stewards Cup, Gifted Master is now as low as 107.

I would argue that if he was competing and winning off lower marks last year, the assessor wouldn’t drop him to a mark 4lbs lower than when winning one of the most competitive handicaps of the entire year.

The reason he is doing so is because the handicap system starts to unravel when applied to top-class horses, and while Gifted Master’s mark is accurate in relation to the top sprinters, it remains too lenient based on the handicap population.

He may, of course, have deteriorated since his win last August, and he’s certainly not hit top form this year, but he didn’t really enjoy either of his trips to Dubai, and it took him a while to re-find his best form after a stint at Meydan in 2017, and he looks to have the same malaise this year.

It may be that it will be the height of summer before he bounces back, and I will be backing him for the Stewards Cup again, but he has enough in his favour here, including the chance to bag the stands rail from stall 30, to make him a bet.

17:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions) 2m 5f 143y

It’s nice to finish with a change of tempo, and the marathon of the Queen Alexandra looks a rather weak renewal. Max Dynamite finished last when he was last in action.

However it’s very possible that a repeat of the form he showed when trailing the tails in the Prix Royal Oak will be enough to win this much lesser contest. His Doncaster Cup second definitely would.

Recommended:

Pinatubo 14:30 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 7/2 (Hills, BetVictor – 4 places)

Lah Ti Dar 15:40 Ascot – 1pt win @ 7/1 (SkyBet, Hills)

Blue Point 16:20 Ascot – 2pts win @ 5/2 (Coral)

Gifted Master 17:00 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Bet365)