DONCASTER SATURDAY
1.50 WILLIAM HILL PORTLAND HANDICAP 5F 143Y
The unusual trip always makes the Portland a puzzle, and that is no less the case this year, with any number holding claims but no outstanding candidate emerging at first glance.
A couple make appeal at the prices, however, with Wentworth Falls in particular looking too big. A strong traveller with a good course record, Wentworth Falls is best coming late off a strong pace, and needs a sound surface, so the drying ground is very much in his favour, and he has pretty much been catching the eye all season.
He was again nearest at the finish when a close fourth to Muscika at Thirsk last time, although he threatened to come right through the field before seeming to hang fire when seeing the front.
I suspect he’s a little bit of a thinker, but the nature of this race, where daylight is at a premium might just suit him ideally, and he has headgear refitted, which looks a good move given how he ducked around late on at Thirsk. He’s weighted to beat Muscika now, and wasn’t as well placed as the third home, Dakota Gold, but is a bigger price than that pair, which I don’t think is representative of his chance.
The other horse I was interested in was Udontdodou, who travelled powerfully before winning at Windsor last time. He looks capable of finding enough to defy a 4lb rise, but is a fair bit shorter than I’d hoped in the market.
2.25 ALAN WOOD PLUMBING AND HEATING PARK STAKES (GROUP 2) 7F 6Y
There is a concern about where the pace is going to come from here, but it still looks worth siding with the tremendously likeable Breton Rock, who has an excellent record at this meeting. Winner of a three-year-old handicap at the fixture in 2013, he has gone on to run well in this race three times subsequently, winning in 2016, and faring best of the hold-up horses when a close fifth under a penalty last year.
He has been pigeon-holed as a soft ground specialist, but he has a decent turn of foot, and has shown some of his best form on good going, as when winning this two years ago and when springing a shock in the 2017 Lennox Stakes at Goodwod. He no longer has his mandatory penalty for that success, and was as god as ever when placed in that contest again at the end of July. He ran poorly on heavy going last time, but his recent record in the mud is patchy in contrast to his reputation, and he’s easily forgiven that effort.
3.35 WILLIAM HILL ST LEGER STAKES (GROUP 1) 1M 6F 115Y
The St Leger could easily provide a quick double for connections of Too Darn Hot, with older sibling Lah Ti Dar generally trading favourite for the oldest classic after her runaway win in the Galtres Stakes at York. That was impressive and she has loads of scope, but it’s hard to imagine many of her Leger rivals failing to dole out a similar drubbing to the handicapper Light Of Joy, and her prospects may have been overplayed. She also has stamina to prove and I’m not really subscriber to the “wasn’t stopping” school of stamina assessment.
The Galtres is short of a mile and a half, and she swamped her rivals for class rather than staying power. In short, she could well be top-class and she could stay all day, but neither of those is guaranteed, and there is no room for error in her price.
Kew Gardens is altogether more solid, but despite his win in the Grand Prix de Paris, he’s not proven himself to be close to the top of his age group, so while again accepting that victory is eminently possible, I’m not in a rush to take the current price about him. Given that reluctance, I suppose that the field as an entity must be a value option, so I will play a couple against the field.
Southern France clearly has his class to prove, and he’s apparently held by Kew Gardens on Queen’s Vase running, but not only did that race demonstrate the son of Galileo stayed the trip thoroughly, but it came just a matter of weeks after his racecourse debut, and was a fine achievement when considering that information.
In fact, he has shown progress with each run to date, looking a slow burner, and it’s highly unlikely that he was at concert pitch after a break when fourth in the Irish St Leger Trial at the Curragh last time.
That contest was not run to suit the tactics adopted, and nor was he knocked about as he stayed on, but he still produced another career best on the book. He will surely be better suited by an even gallop at Doncaster, and will progress further as his stamina is more fully tested.
Dee Ex Bee is also held by Kew Gardens on Grand Prix de Paris form, but he can claim a resounding victory over the O’Brien colt given their respective performances in the Derby, a much more representative contest in terms of establishing merit.
Dee Ex Bee has not been at his best since his big effort at Epsom, but he’s neither had the chance to use his ground devouring stride in his subsequent runs, and while there does have to be a doubt about how he has held his form, it should be remembered that he was favourite for this contest immediately after the Derby, and his odds have been allowed to drift too far as he has fallen out of fashion.
He will have no excuses at Doncaster, and the Leger is the race which will ultimately determine where he sits among his peers.
This race has long been his main aim, and it will come as no surprise to see him bounce back to his very best given how well suited he ought to be to the demands of the race.
RECOMMENDED
WENTWORTH FALLS 1.50 Doncaster – 1pt e/w @ 20/1
BRETON ROCK 2.25 Doncaster – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
SOUTHERN FRANCE 3.35 Doncaster – 1pt win @ 14/1 (general)
DEE EX BEE 3.35 Doncaster – 1pt win @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes)
Winner
Rory tipped three winners last week: at Ascot Ripp Orf at 7/1 and First Eleven 5/2 joint-favourite; at Haydock Mekong 9/4 favourite