2:00 UK Hi-fi Show Live Rous Stakes (Listed) 5f

Tis Marvellous might have been the pick here on better ground, as he really is a better horse at Ascot than elsewhere. He’s been better than the result of late, but ground verging on heavy is a huge concern given he’s well suited by a firm surface. It’s doubtful that he will be able to cope with the admirable and still improving Dakota Gold in the circumstances.

Dakota Gold’s only defeat in his last five starts came at the hands of a perfectly-ridden Maid In India at Newbury last time, and he still emerged from that contest with a huge amount of merits, rallying splendidly when headed and almost getting back to Eric Alston’s mare.

Any of the selection’s last four runs would entitle him to start favourite here, making him an automatic choice. Although I don’t expect he will have a huge amount to spare over Danzeno, and Mick Appleby’s charge is the one to go to for exotics given his record at both Ascot and in similar ground over this trip.

3:10 Bet365 Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) 7f

I’ve managed to avoid getting stuck into Ripp Orf much this year compared to last, but as the legendary racing scribe Richard Baerlein once said about Shergar weeks before the 1981 Derby “now is the time to bet like men.”

Ascot handicaps on the straight track have an unerring habit of going to Ascot specialists, as evidenced by the favourite Raising Sand’s record, but while Jamie Osborne’s warrior has beaten 84% of his rivals in winning four of his 12 starts at the track, and is now 6lbs above his last winning mark, Ripp Orf can trump that.

He may have ‘only’ won two of his seven Ascot races, but he’s always been in and around the frame, beating a remarkable 93% of his rivals in those top-end handicaps, and yet is still only 3lbs above his last winning mark, and has time to improve those stats still further.

Every race Ripp Orf has contested at Ascot has been a heritage handicap with a big field, in which going, draw and luck can ruin the chances of even the best handicapped horses. Despite that, he has repaid each-way support on every single occasion he’s been here, and that really is something to write home about.

His wins have come on quicker ground, but he finds 7f sharp enough these days, and the soft ground should help to stop the leaders getting away from him. He can be expected to put in his usual storming finish, and with the favourite now plenty high enough in the weights, and plenty of these having something to prove on grounds of track, trip and/or going, he looks to have his best chance of the entire season.

3:40 John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) 6f

There is a small doubt about Cape Byron in this ground, given his only below-par run last year came in the Challenge Cup on this card. He did win on soft ground here on his belated 2017 return, so neither the season nor the ground should really be an excuse, and his best efforts have come at this track.

He has form at up to a mile, but has looked an improved performer dropped back in trip this season, and a repeat of the form he showed when winning the Wokingham puts him well ahead of today’s rivals. He was a bit too free in a smallish field in the City of York Stakes last time behind Shine So Bright and Laurens, but will be better suited by the return to this track, and will hopefully get a tow into things courtesy of Donjuan Triumphant.

The highly-regarded Tabdeed helps to make the market, and while he’s unexposed, I wasn’t as impressed as some by his reappearance win at Doncaster which was visually impressive, but of slightly dubious substance.

2:15 £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes 6f

Under The Stars has essentially been progressive all season, winning the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot in July. She ran her best race yet when coming out worst in a thrilling four-way finish to the Rockfel Stakes here last week. That form is extremely strong by the standards expected here.

While she’s not tested on really soft ground, it was dead when she scored at Ascot, and her sire was a good winner in the mud as a juvenile. James Tate’s filly can be considered a 1000 Guineas prospect at this stage, her progress still ongoing it seems. So while the massive field here throws up questions about the draw and pace, she is extremely tractable, has the speed to lead for all she doesn’t need to and is all in all, a class apart from these.

3:25 Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) 1m

Soft ground puts me off Lavender’s Blue in this race for all she was a selection when winning at Sandown last time, and her sire’s offspring tend to be good movers who are best on a sound surface. Laurens is hardly a mudlark herself, but she has won both starts on the softest surface she’s raced on. She simply didn’t give her running in the Matron Stakes last time, although, as a rule, making the running at Leopardstown is harder than it is here, and she really set things up for her rivals there last time.

The bottom line is that she is the best horse in this contest, as she showed when winning the Group 1 Prix Rothschild in July. She is well suited by this track, having won this race on good to soft last year, and the Fillies’ Mile here on her final juvenile outing, where she had September and Magical back in second and fourth.

If she runs to her best, she wins, and while excuses must be made for her latest outing, she’s been allowed to start at a bigger price here than the balance of her form merits.

Recommended

Ripp Orf 3:10 Ascot – 1.5pts e/w @ 11/2 (general – ¼ 4 places)

Cape Byron 3:40 Ascot – 2pts win @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

Laurens 3:25 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 4/1 (general)