Donn McClean

CHAMPAGNE West is a worthy favourite for this afternoon’s BetBright Chase at Kempton.

A progressive novice chaser last season, Philip Hobbs’ horse ran a cracker on his debut this term to finish second behind his stable companion Village Vic in the December Gold Cup off a mark of 150.

Raised just 4lb for that, he was sent off a warm favourite for the good two miles, five-furlong handicap chase at Cheltenham’s January meeting, but he made a bad mistake at the third fence down the back straight that day. That effectively ended his chance, and Richard Johnson ultimately pulled him up.

He has raced just six times over fences, so he has the scope to continue to progress. However, the step up to three miles today for the first time over fences is a bit of an unknown, as is the move to Kempton.

Most of his racing, and all his best runs, have been at Cheltenham, which is obviously completely different to Kempton in terms of configuration.

Also, his jumping remains a worry. Jumping frailties have been a feature of his last three runs. He fell in the Scilly Isles Chase on his final run last season, he made a bad mistake at the last fence on the first circuit in the December Gold Cup, and in the January race his mistake down the far side put him out of the race.

The fences come at you quickly in a big-field competitive handicap chase at Kempton, and jumping frailties are usually exposed.

Thomas Brown is less experienced than Champagne West. He is still a novice, but he has a lot in his favour and he is almost twice Champagne West’s price. He has the potential to be significantly better than the handicap mark of 140 off which he races today.

Harry Fry’s horse was a progressive novice hurdler last season, winning twice over two and a half miles, but all the while leaving the impression that it was as a staying chaser that he would make his mark.

Well beaten in the Grade 1 three-mile novices’ hurdles at Cheltenham and Aintree last spring, he returned refreshed this term to win his beginners’ chase at Bangor, before finishing second behind Le Mercurey in a Grade 2 novices’ contest over two miles and five furlongs at Ascot.

He probably would have been only third that day had Amore Alato not come down at the final fence, but it was still a good run. He just kept on all the way to the line, again leaving the impression that he would be better when stepped up in trip.

He did step up in trip at Doncaster last time, and he stayed on well to beat Vintage Vinnie by 10 lengths.

The handicapper raised him just 2lb for that to a mark of 140, which was more than fair. Vintage Vinnie was rated 141 going into the Doncaster race, and Thomas Brown beat him well off level weights. Also, Harry Fry’s horse is rated 142 over hurdles - he was rated 145 at his peak - so the fact that he gets to race today off a mark that is 2lb lower than his hurdles mark is a significant positive for a horse who should be a better chaser than hurdler.

Harry Fry sent out Opening Batsman - who joins his stable companion in the line-up - to win this race in 2013. Opening Batsman had a remarkably similar profile then to Thomas Brown’s now: a novice, a seven-year-old, racing for just the fourth time over fences, ridden by Noel Fehily and racing off a mark of 140.

Like Opening Batsman then, Thomas Brown has raced just three times over fences now, so he has lots of potential to progress further.

Fry has his horses in top form, and the fact that he fits cheekpieces to Thomas Brown today for the first time over fences is a positive.

His prominent style of racing is a positive in chases at Kempton, and Noel Fehily is one of the top riders. All looks set for a big run.

EIDER CHASE

Hopefully the frost covers that Newcastle has employed will help them to beat the freeze, because the Eider Chase is shaping up to be a fascinating staying handicap chase, and Ballyculla could be the answer to it.

Warren Greatrex’s horse progressed throughout last season as a novice chaser. He ran well in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham on ground that should have been faster than ideal for him on his penultimate run, and he again ran well to finish fifth behind Gallant Oscar at Punchestown on his final run.

There should be a premium on stamina today - when the frost covers come up they usually reveal testing ground - and that will suit Ballyculla well.

He proved his wellbeing with a tough staying performance to win a three-mile chase at Bangor on heavy ground in December on his only run this season to date. Back in fifth that day was Russe Blanc, who won the Classic Chase at Warwick on his next run, and is now rated 10lb higher than he was then.

Ballyculla himself was raised just 4lb for that win to a mark of 136, which was more than fair. It means that he meets Russe Blanc today on 8lb better terms today compared to their encounter at Bangor (Russe Blanc is 2lb poorly-in today) despite the fact that he beat Kerry Lee’s horse by 11 lengths.

It means that he has to carry 11st 4lb today, but this is a race in which high-weights do well. Seven of the eight winners in the last 10 years carried 11st or more.

Warren Greatrex has deliberately kept the Westerner gelding for this race, which is obviously a significant positive, in terms of preparation as well as in terms of the trainer’s confidence in his horse, his handicap rating and this race for him.

Greatrex has his horses in top form, and it is easy to see Ballyculla running a big race.

RECOMMENDED

THOMAS BROWN, 9/1 (Bet365) or 8/1 (generally), 1 point each-way,

BALLYCULLA, 7/1 (generally), 1 point each-way,