YOU can understand why Tis Marvellous has been put in as favourite for the William Hill Beverley Bullet this afternoon. Clive Cox’s horse’s last two runs have been very good. He was only beaten by Cape Byron in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot on his penultimate run, racing off a mark of 101, and then, sent off as favourite for a highly competitive five-furlong handicap back at Ascot last time, he ran out an impressive winner off a mark of 103.
The handicapper raised him by 8lbs to a mark of 111, which makes him the highest rated horse in today’s line-up by a fair way. He is rated 6lbs superior to his joint highest-rated rivals Danzeno and Copper Knight, and he receives 3lbs from Copper Knight.
But he is short, and there are potential vulnerabilities. Like, that his last two runs were at Ascot. Indeed, most of his best performances have been at Ascot. Fourth in the Wokingham last year, winner of the Shergar Cup Dash last year, fourth behind Blue Point and Harry Angel in the Pavilion Stakes in 2017. And we know that Ascot form does not always translate to other tracks.
It may be that he is just an improved horse this year, he could simply be the best horse in today’s race and he could win well. But he is a fashionable horse now and, on his non-Ascot form, he is shorter than he should be.
By contrast, Tarboosh could be a little under the radar. Paul Midgley’s horse had a tremendous latter-part-of-the-season last year, winning four times and finishing second twice in his last six runs.
He wasn’t in the same form in the early part of this season, but he had a wind operation after he was beaten in a handicap at Newcastle on Northumberland Plate weekend. He was beaten on his first run back after that at Nottingham, but his second run back in Dakota Gold’s race at York last time was much more encouraging.
He raced on the near side that day from his high draw in a race in which it was probably an advantage to race middle to far side. He travelled well early on, but he didn’t have anything to tow him through the latter stages of the race, he had to do a lot of his own running on the near side inside the final two furlongs.
For all that, he picked up well, and it looked like he might get involved, but his run flattened out and he was muscled out of it a little close home by Orvar. He only finished eighth, but he ran better than his finishing position suggests, and he was only beaten by a total of just over two lengths.
That was his second run back after his wind operation, so there is every chance that there is natural progression forthcoming anyway. He is a course and distance winner, and he is proven on easy ground. You would have preferred a slightly lower draw, but there are only 10 runners, and stall six should be fine. He was rated 108 at the start of this season and, if he can run close to that mark, that would give him a real chance.
Migration’s chance
Migration also has a real chance in the Betway Heed Your Hunch Handicap at Sandown. David Menuisier’s horse did well to win a decent handicap over today’s course and distance last time.
He was held up in rear that day behind a sedate pace that Oisin Murphy was allowed to set on Dreamweaver. Still second last of the seven runners and still a little keen as they turned for home, he made his ground widest of all, and he picked up impressively at the two-furlong marker to hit the front in a race-winning move.
He idled close home, and he was closed down a little by Just The Man, but he probably had more in hand than the one-and-a-half-length winning margin.
The handicapper raised him by 6lbs for that win, but it was a career-best performance, and it was only his eighth run ever and just his second over 10 furlongs. He has kept good company, he ran in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot, he is obviously well regarded by connections, and he has the potential to continue to progress. The turn of foot that he showed last time should be a potent weapon today.
Country is also progressive and Solid Stone is interesting, stepping back up to 10 furlongs but, back over the course and distance over which he is put up a career-best last time, Migration is the bet.
Recommended
Tarboosh 3.15 Beverley – 1 point win, 7/1 (generally)
Migration 2.25 Sandown – 1 point win, 4/1 (generally)