Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Tuesday)
HAVING been flagged up when 25/1 for the Supreme as my novice hurdler to follow in our pre-Christmas edition of The Irish Field, I’m not about to turn my back on Kopek Des Bordes now.
He was awesome at the Dublin Racing Festival and showed massive improvement in his jumping compared to his winning debut over hurdles at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival. When there was such a leap from run one to two in this sphere, why couldn’t he make further progress at Cheltenham? He’s massively unexposed, with just three runs under his girth.
Yes, there have been some reservations over his temperament, having gotten a little on his toes in the preliminaries at Leopardstown, but it’s not all that often that Willie Mullins-trained runners boil over at the Festival. He couldn’t be in better hands in terms of preparing for an assignment like this. After all, his trainer is the most successful handler in the Supreme’s history.
As highlighted by IHRB National Hunt handicapper Mark Bird in these pages after the DRF, Kopek Des Bordes’ rating of 157 would have been good enough to win three out of every four Supremes since the beginning of the century, and that is also the same figure that Ballyburn headed into last year’s Cheltenham Festival with as a novice, having won the same race. Additionally, he’s 2lb ahead of the rating held at the same stage of his career by Douvan.
This will be a banker for many on day one. He can get the visiting team off to a winning start in the opener.
Hallgarten And Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Tuesday)
GAVIN Cromwell bought Total Look as a yearling with the intention of going juvenile hurdling, and surely a race like this would have been on his mind from a long way out.
A maiden winner on the flat and over hurdles before a promising third at Cheltenham in December, he caught the eye when third in a Punchestown handicap last time (that run also attracting the attention of the stewards). After that showing, he looked to have an especially attractive rating of 125 in Ireland.
Unfortunately for his supporters, life got tougher for him when the British handicapping team slapped on another 7lb to take him to 132 at last week’s Festival handicaps weights reveal. That was a fair deal higher than the average increase of 4.5lb for Irish juvenile hurdlers in the handicap entries.
While the hike took some of the gloss of his claims, I don’t think it’ll be enough to halt his progress if putting it all together over hurdles for one of the shrewdest outfits in the game when it comes to targeting major handicaps.
Irish-trained runners have also won the last seven renewals of this race.
National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase (Tuesday)
FINGERS crossed 40 minutes after the Fred Winter, Now Is The Hour will be out to continue a strong end to day one for Gavin Cromwell in the newly-reshaped National Hunt Chase.
In Inothewayurthinkin in the Kim Muir here last season, the same yard struck with a well-handicapped novice chaser in a staying handicap chase at this meeting and it would be no shock if there is much more to come from this eight-year-old, who has been brought along gradually.
There was clear promise in what he showed in fourth behind Three Card Brag, Kinturk Kalanisi and Captain Cody at Navan last time and getting up to this extreme stamina test has every chance of suiting him down to the ground.
The Grade 2 novice hurdle winner has proven himself as highly effective on testing ground, so conditions mightn’t be his absolute ideal. Having said that, there is bound to be adequate watering for day one of the Cheltenham Festival and it was only soft when he last appeared at Navan.
Up 4lb in Britain to a mark of 139, I expect he can prove a fair deal better than that.
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Wednesday)
THE standout novice hurdler in training last season, Ballyburn’s only blip this term came over an inadequate two miles against a superstar in Sir Gino and he could prove the outright class horse in the 2025 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.
He has always been held in top regard by the Willie Mullins team and for all that Dancing City is clearly a likeable and talented sort, there has always been the impression that last season’s 13-length Turners Novices’ Hurdle winner was something a bit different.
Given he would have had his confidence seriously tested when bundling through the final fence at Kempton, it was a fair mark of his ability that Ballyburn managed to get back on track with a five-length Grade 1 victory last time at the Dublin Racing Festival - especially when taking on an excellent jumper in the shape of Croke Park.
Being by Flemensfirth and out of an Old Vic mare, he’s a brother to three-mile Paddy Power Chase winner Noble Endeavor and extended-three-and-a-half-mile chase winner Minella Daddy. On paper, he should relish stepping up to three miles for the first time here - and he’s anything but slow, based on his two-mile hurdling form last season.
Of the short-priced favourites set to line up next week, he doesn’t look bad value at anything around 13/8.
William Hill County Handicap Hurdle (Friday)
MY long-range ante-post fancy for the County Hurdle, Ethical Diamond, looks to have been stung badly since winning a maiden hurdle at Punchestown given he’s now 12lb higher when factoring in his British and Irish penalties. He should still go close, but the case just isn’t as appealing as it initially was with him.
Racing off an attractive weight of just 10st 6lb, however, is last year’s Fred Winter winner Lark In The Mornin, who could still have a big say off 10lb higher than his 2024 Cheltenham Festival triumph.
Connections seemed extremely bullish about him being a very well-handicapped hurdler heading to the meeting 12 months ago, only for heavy ground to dent their confidence at the 11th hour. This time around, the largely dry forecast looks to be much more in his favour and clear improvement can be expected from his Leopardstown reappearance at Christmas.
He’s also only 2lb higher in Britain than Ireland - that’s attractive compared to the average rise of 3.8lb for non-juvenile hurdlers.