Donn McClean

IT is always difficult to know what to do with a horse like Lord Of The Land, favourite for this afternoon’s Betway Lincoln.

It has been all about Lord Of The Land all week. The son of Shamardal has been backed in from big prices to this morning’s odds of 4/1 and 9/2. A full-brother to Lope De Vega, he won his last two races for Andre Fabre in France last autumn, and he is set to race off a mark of 102 today on his debut for David O’Meara.

He might be the group-horse-masquerading-as-a-handicapper – we love these group horses, especially when they masquerade as handicappers – but he might not be. He is talented and he obviously has bags of potential, he is a very interesting purchase by Joe Foley for his new owners, but he is very short given that there are so many unknowns, known ones as well as unknown ones.

There is no doubting David O’Meara’s talent as a trainer, the results are there, in the bag, plotted along the dots that chart his upward trajectory. And actually, as it happened, he did have the quintessential group-horse-masquerading-as-a-handicapper in last year’s Lincoln in the form of Mondialiste, who won the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York last August, then went on and won the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile at, well, Woodbine in September.

Interestingly, however, he didn’t win the Lincoln.

The Lincoln can go to those fashionable and progressive four-year-olds, the ones who have the potential to be so far ahead of the handicapper that they end up in group races later in the season. Expresso Star won the Lincoln as a four-year-old in 2009, and he was only just beaten in a Group 3 race on his next run. Penitent won the Lincon as a four-year-old in 2010, and he won a listed race at Sandown later that season, and, later in life, went on to win a couple of Group 2 races.

However, when Expresso Star won the Lincoln, he raced off a mark of 97. When Penitent won it, he raced off a mark of 98. Expresso Star would not have got into this afternoon’s race, and Penitent would have been borderline. A lot of the highly-progressive four-year-olds stuggle to get in.

WIZENED WARRIOR

It is also interesting that a four-year-old hasn’t won the Lincoln since Penitent in 2010, and that three of the last five renewals have been won by six-year-olds.

It is a race, run this early in the season, often on testing ground, always with lots of runners, in which the wizened warrior can be at an advantage over the fleet-footed youngsters.

Lord Of The Land may well win, he may well blitz his field, but you are paying a premium for the massive potential that he undoubtedly has when you are trading at 9/2 and 4/1.

His stable companion Birdman is more interesting at more than four times the favourite’s odds. O’Meara did a remarkable job with Birdman last season, starting him off on a rating of 70 and seeing him end the season with the rating of 104 off which he races today.

A winner over seven furlongs at this track last April, he won five of his first seven races last season, and he ran a cracker to finish third behind Bronze Angel and Man Of Harlech in a handicap run over today’s course and distance at the St Leger meeting in September.

He seemed to get caught a little flat-footed when they quickened at the two-furlong pole, but he stayed on well inside the final furlong to finish a close-up third. It later transpired that he had lost a shoe during the race, so that added to the merit of the performance.

He was disappointing in his last two runs, but you can easily allow him that at the end of a long season. He had been on the go since April, and he had run 13 times in total.

You can be sure that his trainer has freshened him up since last season, and that the Lincoln has been on his radar all winter. It is the ideal race for him in the early part of the season.

By Danehill Dancer, he goes well on soft ground, he goes well over a straight mile, he stays a mile well and his record at the track since he joined O’Meara reads ‘13’.

He has plenty of weight, he has been allotted 9st 8lb and no horse has carried more than 9st 4lb to victory since Babodana carried 9st 10lb in 2004. However, Josh Doyle is good value for his 5lb claim, and he brings Birdman’s weight down to a much more manageable 9st 3lb.

His draw in stall 21 could be a disadvantage, conventional wisdom is that you should be drawn low in the Lincoln. However, three of the first four home last year were drawn 12 or higher, and eight of the first 10 were drawn 11 or higher.

While Ocean Tempest won it from stall three in 2014 on soft ground, the horses who chased him home were drawn, respectively, 22, 20, 18, 14 and 16. And in 2013, on soft ground, the first two home were drawn three and one, but the next nine were drawn 10 or higher.

Birdman may not have the potential that some of his younger rivals today have, but there is still a big handicap like this in him off a mark of 104, especially with his rider taking 5lb off, and he looks over-priced at 20/1.

RECOMMENDED

Birdman, 2.45 Doncaster, 20/1 (Coral, Betway) or 16/1 (generally) 1 point each-way