THINGS have changed. It used to be that you needed a wizened warrior for the Randox Grand National.

Pineau De Re, Auroras Encore, Neptune Collonges. Eleven-year-olds who had been around for a while. Even the 12-year-old Amberleigh House got on the board.

Then the modifications.

Before the eight-year-old Many Clouds won the Grand National in 2015, you had to go 13 years back to Bindaree to find the last eight-year-old to prevail. And before Bindaree, you had to go back to 1992 to Party Politics. And Corbiere was the only eight-year-old winner between Red Rum and Party Politics.

And there still hasn’t been a seven-year-old winner since the oft-referenced Bogskar.

Different now. Eight-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals of the National, and nine-year-olds have won the other two.

Also, four of the first five in 2019 were eight or nine, two of the first four in 2018 were eight, three of the first four in 2017 were eight or nine, five of the first six in 2017 were eight or nine.

You need a horse who stays for sure, but these days you are also looking for a horse who has the potential to be ahead of his handicap mark. Probably a youngish horse. So, just like any other staying handicap chase really.

Of course, the Grand National is not just like any other handicap chase. We know that it is the horse race in which the world takes an interest, more than any other. It is unique, it is a spectacle.

But, while it is still a specialist’s event, it does conform to the rules of staying handicap chases more now than it used to.

Deserving favourite

Shortlist? Cloth Cap has to be on it, he is a stone well-in and he deserves to be favourite. He won the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury, a flat, galloping, left-handed track, like Aintree.

But he is short now for a horse who (like all the others) has to negotiate his way around Aintree and over the unique fences in a race in which normal luck in-running is less of a guarantee than it is in just about any other horse race.

Any Second Now is on it. Ted Walsh’s horse won the Kim Muir in 2019, and he looked set for last year’s National, like many others. He was impressive in winning the Grade 2 Webster Cup at Navan last time over two miles, a trip that is surely short of his optimum, and he another well-handicapped horse.

Minella Times is on it, second in the Paddy Power Chase, second in the Leopardstown Chase, and wouldn’t that be the story, and you know that he won’t lack for assistance from the saddle.

Magic Of Light is on it and Balko Des Flos could run well at a big price.

Irish National

Top of the list, though, is Burrows Saint. Willie Mullins’ horse was impressive two years ago in winning the Irish Grand National, and we know that the Irish National is a good pointer to Aintree.

He is 12lb higher now than he was then, but he was only six then, he is surely stronger and more mature now at eight, and he won the Irish National with more in hand than the bare winning margin.

He has only run three times this season, twice over hurdles and three times on heavy ground.

He was well beaten in the Galmoy Hurdle in January, but that was on very soft ground at Gowran Park. He shaped far better at Fairyhouse last time in the Bobbyjo Chase, another race that can be a good pointer to the National.

It was perhaps a little disappointing at the time that he didn’t win, but his stable companion Acapella Bourgeois is a high-class horse, and Burrows Saint got to within five lengths of him on unsuitably soft ground.

He should be happier on the better ground, and you know that his trainer will have him primed for today, for a race that he has probably had in mind for him for two years.

You have to feel for Paul Townend, missing out on such a good ride in the Grand National, but Patrick Mullins is a top class deputy, and he was superb on Livelovelaugh in the Topham Chase yesterday.

Stayers Hurdle

Earlier on the day, Diol Ker could out-run his odds in the Ryanair Stayers Hurdle. Noel Meade’s horse is still the only horse who has beaten Monkfish over obstacles, he beat him in a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse in November 2019.

Diol Ker missed the rest of that season, and this term’s escapades over fences lasted only until Monkfish exacted his revenge in a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse in November.

Returned to hurdles after that, the Gigginstown House horse battled on well to win a two-and-a-half-mile hurdle at Limerick over Christmas in a race that wasn’t run to suit, and he ran a massive race in the Galmoy Hurdle last time to get to within a half a length of the talented Sams Profile.

That was a career-best performance in first-time cheekpieces, on ground that should have been softer than ideal for him. He should appreciate the better ground today and, with the cheekpieces retained, he could put it up to Thyme Hill and Paisley Park.

Recommended

Diol Ker, 1 point win, 3.35 Aintree, 20/1 (generally)

Burrows Saint, 1 point each-way, 5.15 Aintree, 8/1 (generally)

Winners

Donn’s recommended bets have shown a net profit on each of the last four Saturdays.