SIÓG Geal has been solid in the market all week for this afternoon’s Grade 2 BetVictor British EBF Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury, and she strengthened further yesterday, so that she is now clear favourite in front of Jasmine Bliss.

The case for Fergal O’Brien’s mare is solid too. Second to Paddy Twomey’s mare Seo Linn in the listed mares’ bumper at Cheltenham’s November meeting, a race in which her stable companion Strong Run finished just behind her in third, and won a bumper at Warwick next time, she finished a close-up fourth behind Jubilee Alpha and Bluey at Windsor in January on soft ground, and then chased Bluey home again on better ground at Market Rasen next time.

Those races were all over two miles or thereabouts, she was out-paced last time around Market Rasen’s turns by Bluey, who led all the way.

But there is plenty of stamina in her pedigree and, winner of her only point-to-point for Norman Lee, she could improve quite considerably for the step up to an extended two and a half miles today. She is progressive anyway, she has the potential to go beyond the mark of 116 off which she races today.

Jasmine Bliss is also progressive, Harry Derham’s mare has won her last two, this is a good trip for her and she goes well on goodish ground. Winner of a bumper on her only run at Newbury, she has been given a mark of 125 for this, her handicap bow, after she beat the 125-rated La Pinsonniere quite easily off level weights at Southwell last time.

The Nicky Henderson-trained La Pinsonniere has been dropped by 7lb for that run, and you can see her closing the gap on Jasmine Bliss in her first-time cheekpieces, and her stable companion Crazierthandaisy won nicely at Warwick on New Year’s Eve and Kenny Alexander’s mare has probably been kept for this race since.

Represents value

It is a wide-open contest but, at the price, it may be that Scarlet O’Tara represents the value.

An impressive winner of her maiden hurdle at Bangor last June, and second to subsequent Persian War Hurdle winner Flying Fortune at Worcester in August, she put up the best performance of her career to date when she won a mares’ handicap hurdle over almost three miles at Ascot in November. She led from a fair way out that day, but there was a lot to like about the manner in which she battled on to see off the determined challenge of Royale Margaux.

The front two pulled well clear of their rivals that day, and Royale Margaux finished fourth behind Wodhooh and Joyeuse and Take No Chances at Cheltenham next time, a race that has worked out spectacularly well in the interim, before going to Warwick and winning a listed mares’ hurdle. She is now rated 9lb higher than she was when Scarlet O’Tara beat her at Ascot.

Scarlet O’Tara is now just 8lb higher than she was at Ascot and, as a seven-year-old who has raced just seven times over hurdles, she has the potential to go beyond the mark of 119 off which she races today. All her best runs are on good ground, and this intermediate trip is a good trip for her.

The Kayf Tara mare was pulled up in a Pertemps qualifier at Carlisle last time, but that was over an extended three miles on soft ground, when she reportedly bled from the nose. You have to allow her that, but you easily can.

That was back in December too, she has been given a nice break since then and, back on better ground today and over an intermediate trip, she should be seen to much better effect.

Kelso Final

Earlier in the day, Ashington looks over-priced in the Ladbrokes Go North Cab On Target Handicap Hurdle Series Final at Kelso.

Mark Walford’s horse is 10 now, he has had plenty of racing and, consequently, he does not have the same obvious scope for further progression as that possessed by I Am Max, who has raced just four times over hurdles, or Ballyfort, who looked good in winning at Ayr two weeks ago on his first run since a wind operation.

But Ashington has plenty in his favour. For starters, he goes into the race in good form. He was impressive in winning a handicap hurdle at Doncaster last Friday.

He travelled into his race well and he picked up nicely to get the better of the progressive Diamond Dealer, before staying on well up the run-in, leaving the impression that he was winning with a little bit more in hand than the two and a quarter-lengths by which he won.

That was a 0-115 contest, and he just fitted in under the ceiling for it, racing, as he was, off a mark of 115. He is obviously up in grade today, and a 4lb hike will make life a little more difficult, but only a little, you couldn’t have argued with a 4lb hike.

While this is a Class 2 contest today, only two horses in the race are rated higher than 120. It is not as significant a step up in grade as appears to be the case at first glance.

As well as that, Ashington appeared to appreciate the step back up to this type of trip last time. He is zero for three over three miles or further over hurdles and fences and, while he has won over two miles over hurdles, and over a mile and a half on the flat, this intermediate trip seems to be his optimum.

Before he won at Doncaster last time, he hadn’t run over two miles and five furlongs since last September, when he won a handicap hurdle over today’s course and distance.

Higher mark

He goes well on this goodish ground, and he goes well at Kelso. On his first run at the track, he finished a close-up fourth behind Saint D’Oroux, who finished second in the Morebattle Hurdle on his next run off a 3lb higher mark.

On Ashington’s next run at Kelso, he finished a close-up third in a handicap hurdle run over three and a quarter-miles, which stretched his stamina, behind Judicial Law, who finished second next time in the Pertemps Qualifier at Cheltenham’s October meeting off a 3lb higher mark.

Ashington’s third and most recent run at Kelso was in that race over today’s course and distance, which he won, a race from which the third horse came out and won over fences next time.

Paddy Barlow gave Ashington a fine ride last time, his record on him now reads 3531, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Canford Cliffs gelding out-run his odds today by a fair way.

Recommended:

Ashington, 2.40 Kelso, 11/1 (generally), 1 point each-way

Scarlet O’Tara, 3.15 Newbury, 7/1 (generally), 1 point each-way