THERE wasn’t much between Jingko Blue and Lowry’s Bar when they finished first and second respectively in the Grade 2 Hampton Chase last month at Windsor, re-routed from Warwick, and there may not be much between them when they meet again today in the Grade 2 Ebony Horse Club Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot.

Jingko Blue had just over two lengths to spare over Lowry’s Bar at the winning line at Windsor, but it may not have been that much had the runner-up not made a significant mistake at the third last fence. It is impossible to know how it would have played out had Lowry’s Bar jumped the obstacle well.

You can argue that Lowry’s Bar did well to get back into the race and to get to within two and a quarter-lengths of Jingko Blue. You can also argue that Jingko Blue was idling in front, that he could have found more if more had been required and that he had more in hand than the bare winning margin.

On balance, you can understand why the market favours Jingko Blue for today’s contest. Nicky Henderson’s horse won the Hampton Chase, he was the superior horse the last time these two met. Also, he was the better hurdler, 10lb better according to official ratings.

He is the younger horse, a year younger, and more unexposed, six runs under rules as opposed to 10, two runs over fences (two for two), as opposed to four.

Jingko Blue is 5lb worse off, he has to carry a 5lb penalty for winning the Hampton Chase, and he is rated just 3lb superior over fences. But you can see him improving again, and the better ground today should be in his favour. His best runs over hurdles were on good to soft ground.

Over-priced

That said, The Changing Man looks over-priced against the two of them. It is remarkable that Joe Tizzard’s horse has not yet won over fences, because he has put up some really good runs in defeat in good races.

He fell early enough in the race when travelling well in the Badger Beer Chase at Wincanton on his debut this season, and he has finished second in good staying handicap chases in each of his next three races: the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, the Silver Cup at Ascot and the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster.

His run in the Silver Cup is of obvious relevance for today’s race, run, as it was, over the Reynoldstown course and distance. Always prominent, he jumped the Ascot fences well and, in front on his own from a long way out, he only just gave best to Ascot specialist Victtorino half-way up the run-in, rallying when he was joined and going down by just a half a length in the end, the first two finishing well clear of their rivals.

He is more exposed than his three main rivals, but he brings a high level of solid form in good handicap chases into the race and, back at Ascot, where he put up one of the best performances of his career, and back on the good to soft ground that suits him well, he could put it up to his more fashionable rivals.

Peaky Boy is a player too. He looked like a really exciting staying novice chaser when he won a novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting. He was beaten next time, stepped up in trip, in another novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham’s December meeting, but a few little things went wrong that day, and he could easily bounce back on his first run for Jonjo and AJ O’Neill. That said, The Changing Man may represent the value of the race.

Grand National Trial

Yeah Man may represent the value in the Oddschecker Grand National Trial at Haydock later in the day.

Gavin Cromwell’s horse is 11lb higher than he was when he won the race last year, but he won with plenty in hand last year, he was probably idling on the run-in, and he and the runner-up My Silver Lining finished well clear of their rivals.

Conditions are probably going to be significantly better at Haydock today than they were on this day last year, but Gavin Cromwell’s horse goes well on better ground too, as he proved when he was only just beaten by Victtorino in last season’s Silver Cup at Ascot, and it wasn’t as testing as we have come to expect at Navan when he finished third in the Troytown Chase on his debut this season.

He raced off an Irish handicap rating of 140 that day, he races off a British mark of 144 today, and that should be well within the compass of the Westerner gelding, still a relatively young staying chaser. And he is one for one at Haydock, we know that he can excel at the track.

It is of small concern that this race comes up quite quickly after the Thyestes Chase, in which he had to have had a hard enough race in staying on to take fourth place behind Nick Rockett.

But he won his maiden hurdle at Thurles in February 2023, three weeks after he had finished second in another maiden hurdle at Clonmel on heavy ground. He has had a similar break from Gowran to today, and, with all the other positives, that small imponderable is more than factored into his odds.

The Changing Man, 1.50 Ascot, 6/1 (generally), 1 point win

Yeah Man, 3.15 Haydock, 9/2 (generally), 1 point win