LINCOLN day creeps up on you and arrives on your doorstep before you have had time to fully decide whether or not it makes sense to put four horses from the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase into your tracker.

Orandi may not have been in your flat tracker from last year, or he may have been an addition, after he stayed on well to take second place behind Titanium in a mile handicap at Leopardstown in October, or after he again kept on well down the centre of track to take third place behind Rhythm King and Gleneagle Bay in another mile handicap at the Curragh two weeks later off a 4lb higher mark.

The handicapper left Tony Martin’s horse on his mark of 88 after that, and that is the mark off which he won the Irish Lincolnshire on his debut this season.

Orandi was good that day. He had to hunt down Kortez Bay, who looked the likely winner when he moved into the centre and made his break for home towards the far side, and he did, going on to win by three-parts of a length in the end, with the pair of them pulling impressively clear of their rivals.

No horse has ever completed the Irish/English Lincoln double. Indeed, the Dermot Weld-trained Saving Mercy is the only Irish-trained horse who has won the Lincoln that originated in Lincoln, as opposed to the Lincoln that originated at the Curragh, since its inauguration in the late 1800s.

Penalty

Orandi has to shoulder a 5lb penalty in today’s William Hill Lincoln for his win at the Curragh, but the Irish handicapper has raised him by 9lb for the future to a mark of 97, so he will be 4lb well-in today. He is not obviously unexposed, a seven-year-old who has run 37 times, but he was in cracking form at the end of last season, he didn’t win, but he finished in the first three in each of his last six races, and he took his form up a notch with his victory on his seasonal return. He is well handicapped, he has race fitness on his side and he goes into the race on a high. He is a big player.

You can easily make a case for Thunder Run too. Unraced as a juvenile, Karl Burke’s horse was progressive last season as a three-year-old, winning three of his first five races, the last of them the highly competitive Clipper Logistics Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting, which he won off a mark of 96, making just about all the running and keeping on well to withstand the late challenge of Mirsky.

He ran really well too on his final run last season in the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot on Champions’ Day, when he led from early and did well to keep on as well as he did to take fourth place in a race in which the protagonists came from a fair bit further back. He proved that day that he could handle soft ground too. That said, the case for Midnight Gun is more compelling. The son of Kingman was also progressive last season as a three-year-old. Winner of a mile handicap at Newmarket in July off a mark of 88 on his final run for Ed Walker, he had his first run for Hamad Al Jehani and Wathnan Racing in a 10-furlong handicap at Glorious Goodwood.

More compelling

He looked the likely winner that day too when he moved up on the far side to join the leaders on the run to the two-furlong marker, but his stamina just started to ebb at the furlong pole, and he finished a close third behind Approval and Brioni, who came out next time and won a handicap at Ascot off a 3lb higher mark. He is now rated 11lb higher than he was then.

Midnight Gun was raised by just 3lb for that run and, after another defeat at Goodwood, this time over a mile, when he was just too keen early on, he went to Doncaster for his final run of the season, and put up a good performance in going down by a length to the talented Harper’s Ferry, trained by Midnight Gun’s former trainer Ed Walker, the pair of them coming nicely clear of Whiskey Pete. Back in fourth that day was Apiarist, who won three of his five races subsequently, and is now rated 11lb higher than he was then.

Midnight Gun was raised by just 5lb - he meets Apiarist on 7lb better terms than the terms on which they met at the end of last season - and that was fair.

We know that he can operate at Doncaster, and on soft ground at Doncaster, and it is probable that, given his proven affinity with the track, connections have had the Lincoln in mind for him since the end of last season.

It is also an obvious positive that James Doyle appears to prefer him to the other Wathnan Racing horse in the race, Native Warrior, who is also a player.

His draw in stall 13 is probably a positive. He has potential prominent racer Old Cock next door, and fellow prominent racer Thunder Run is not too far away in stall 19. He should get a good tow into the race, and the astute James Doyle will have options from that draw.

Midnight Gun has been gelded since he last ran, and that could elicit further progression.

And, a four-year-old who has raced just seven times and who has the potential to go beyond the handicap rating of 101 off which he races today, he has a really good profile for the race.

Rosebery Handicap

At Kempton, Paradias looks over-priced in the Rosebery Handicap. Winner of a novices’ hurdle at Lingfield in November 2023, Alan King’s horse progressed again when returned to the flat last season.

Winner of a nine-furlong handicap on fast ground at Glorious Goodwood in August off a mark of 94, he made his debut on an all-weather surface at Southwell in November, when he kept on well to take third place in a 12-furlong handicap.

He returned to Tapeta when he went to Wolverhampton on St Stephen’s Day and ran out an impressive winner of a Class 2 12-furlong handicap off a mark of 95, and he proved that he was just as comfortable on Polytrack last time when he made his debut at Kempton, and won another Class 2 handicap over today’s course and distance.

He had the pace to adopt and maintain a good position that day, just behind the leaders. He showed a nice turn of foot to hit the front on the run to the furlong marker, and he kept on well to just hold off the late challengers.

The Glen Rovers, who has won his previous two and who was sent off as favourite, came out next time and won again, and is now rated 6lb higher than he was then.

They didn’t go a great pace in that race, a stronger pace today would suit Paradias better. A 1lb hike was not harsh and, back over the same course and distance, he should probably be a fair bit closer to Balmacara and Mount Atlas in the market than he is.

Paradias, 2.40 Kempton, 10/1 (generally), 1 point win

Midnight Gun, 3.35 Doncaster, 7/1 (generally), 1 point each-way