FASCINATING day ahead. Highly informative day hopefully.
The return of Santini, at Cheltenham on soft ground, which should suit him way better than Sandown did last time. But he will probably have to step up on that performance by quite some way if he is going to beat Bristol De Mai.
The return of Paisley Park, with If The Cap Fits and Summerville Boy to test him.
Then an intriguing Solerina Novices’ Hurdle at Fairyhouse, in which six of the seven mares won last time.
The big handicap chases are really interesting too. You can see why Dingo Dollar is favourite for the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster. Alan King’s horse was left on his mark of 146 after he ran well for a long way off that mark in the Ladbrokes Trophy.
That three-and-a-quarter-mile trip probably stretched his stamina, as it did last year, especially given that he had continual competition for the lead.
He could be a fair bit better dropped back down to the mere three miles at Doncaster. Also, he won a novice chase over today’s course and distance and he finished second in last season’s Grimthorpe Chase, and this race has reportedly been his target since the Ladbrokes Trophy.
We are getting to know where his level is now, and he might be vulnerable to a more progressive rival. Ravenhill Road is one of those. A dual bumper winner and a maiden hurdle winner over two miles for Brian Ellison, it looks like Ravenhill Road has improved again over fences since he joined Sue Smith and stepped up in trip.
He shaped well on his first run for his new trainer at Wetherby in November and, after disappointing next time over two miles at Newcastle when his jumping wasn’t great, he bounced back last time to win a handicap chase at Haydock.
Stayed on strongly
Stepped up to two miles and five and a half furlongs that day, he was always prominent and he stayed on strongly. It was the longest trip over which he had ever raced over fences, and he probably put up a career-best.
The step up to three miles today is another step into the unknown, but there is every chance that he will see it out, given how well he stayed last time, and the fact that his dam – also the dam of Windsor Avenue – won a handicap hurdle over two miles and seven furlongs for Lucinda Russell.
The handicapper raised him by 6lb for that win, to a mark of 133, and he is nine now, but he has raced just seven times over fences, so he still has scope to progress, especially now that he is stepping up in trip again. He won his bumper at Doncaster, and good to soft ground should be ideal for him.
Lalor at Cheltenham
Lalor could also run a big race in the two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase at Cheltenham. Kayley Woolacott’s horse was a talented if somewhat inconsistent-looking novice last season, but when he was good, he was very good, as he was at Cheltenham’s November meeting last season.
He was also good last time, back at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He only went down by a nose and the same to Oldgrangewood and Saint Calvados, but that doesn’t even tell the full story.
He was in front a fair way out, and he appeared to get lonely and idle a little on the far side, probably on the worst of the ground, early in the home straight, as Oldgrangewood quickened to hit the front on the near side.
Lalor rallied up the hill when Saint Calvados challenged him over there, and the three of them flashed past the line together. The form book says that Lalor finished third, but if the heads had bobbed a different way, he could have won the race.
That was his first run in cheekpieces and his first time with Aidan Coleman on board, and both are re-instated today. Both positives. He is up 4lb for that run, but he can be marked up at least a little on the bare form of the run, and he has potential to progress anyway, an eight-year-old who has run just six times over fences.
If he runs his race, he should go close.
Recommended
Lalor, 1 point win, 1.50 Cheltenham, 5/1 (generally)
Ravenhill Road, 1 point win, 3.15 Doncaster, 8/1 (generally)