IF the best Benbatl shows up in the Group 2 tote Celebration Mile at Goodwood today, then he will probably win it. The Godolphin horse is the best horse in the race on what we know, he is the highest-rated horse in the race, the most highly decorated horse in the race, a multiple Group 1 winner, a multiple Group 2 winner, and he doesn’t have to carry a penalty, even though this is only a Group 2 race.

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But there are chinks. For starters, we haven’t seen Benbatl in 337 days, not since he finished third in the Group 2 Joel Stakes at Newmarket last September. He can go well off the back of a break, he won the same Joel Stakes in 2019 on his seasonal debut, and he won a Group 3 race in Dubai on his first run in 2018, his first run in 124 days.

But he was a well-beaten favourite in the Queen Anne Stakes in 2018 on his first run in Britain that year, and he was sent off as favourite for the Joel Stakes last year when he could only finish third behind Kameko. He is seven now, and it may be that it will be more difficult for him now on his first run back after a long break than it was for him in his more youthful days.

You can pick holes in the cases for some of his rivals too. Chindit is looking more exposed now than he was when he won the Greenham Stakes on his debut this season, or when he finished fifth in the Guineas, racing on the near side. It may be that he will be able to improve again when stepped up to 10 furlongs.

Happy Power is surely better over seven furlongs, or even over six furlongs, than he is over a mile, Stormy Antarctic is surely better on ground that is easier than the ground that he will encounter today, and Mutasaabeq, for all his potential, is very short in a Group 2 race for a horse who has just won a novice stakes and two conditions races.

You can also pick holes in the case for Duke Of Hazzard. He is rated 10lb inferior to Benbatl for starters, but there are enough positives about him to suggest that he may be over-priced at 12/1.

Idiosyncratic track

Goodwood is a good starting point; he goes really well at the idiosyncratic track. His record there reads 11125. The third win was in this race two years ago, and the fifth placing was in this race last year, when the soft ground was all against him.

His track form is a double positive because, not only have the three best performances of his career been at Goodwood but, given his affinity with the track, it is probable that trainers Paul and Oliver Cole have had this race in mind for him for a while. It is probable that he has been trained to be at his peak today.

He hasn’t won yet this season – indeed, he hasn’t won since he won this race in 2019 – but there has been mitigation, and there have been positive signs of late.

He had no luck in-running in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom on Derby weekend, and the Ganton Stakes at York, for which he was sent off as favourite, wasn’t run to suit, with Azano setting up a clear lead in that four-horse race, which left him with no cover.

And he actually ran well last time in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes back at York, on ground that was probably a little bit easier than ideal and over nine furlongs, a trip that probably stretched his stamina.

He made nice ground from the rear that day, and he came there with his chance on the near side on the run to the furlong pole, before his run just flattened out through the final furlong. It was a fine performance in the circumstances, going down by two and a half lengths in less than optimal conditions to the top-class Real World.

A mile at Goodwood on fast ground is close to optimal for Duke Of Hazzard. His draw in stall one is ideal and James Doyle, who rode him in each of his last two races, retains the ride. He could out-run his odds by a fair way.

Prestige Stakes

You can argue that Hello You should be clear favourite for the Group 3 tote Prestige Stakes. An impressive winner at Wolverhampton on her racecourse debut in May for Ralph Beckett, the Invincible Spirit filly ran a big race in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot to finish second to Sandrine, on unsuitably heavy ground, and racing up with a fast pace from early.

She has been beaten in both her runs since, in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket and in the Lowther Stakes at York, but she raced too keenly in both races. She didn’t have a lot of racing room either in the Lowther Stakes at the two-furlong marker, and she did well to run on as well as she did on the near side late on, given how keen she had been.

She only finished sixth in the end, on her first run for David Loughnane, and she was three and a half lengths behind the winner, Zain Claudette, but she was only beaten a short head, a short head and a neck for third.

She faces some unexposed and progressive rivals this afternoon, but she is not exactly exposed herself. She brings the best form into the race and, if she can learn to settle a little better through the early part of her race in her second-time hood, an aspect of her racing that she will surely improve upon as she gains more experience, then she could step forward again.

Recommended

Hello You, 1 point win, 1.50 Goodwood, 4/1 (generally)

Duke Of Hazzard, 1 point win, 3.35 Goodwood, 12/1 (generally)