WE have been here before: Willie Mullins with a congregation of runners in the Coral Scottish Grand National, and a trainers’ championship on the line.
It’s almost as you were 12 months ago. The Aintree Grand National in the bag and the battalions loaded up for Ayr. It has been a little different during the preamble this year, mind you, because you could easily have argued that 9/1 or 10/1 about Ireland’s perennial champion winning the British trainers’ championship again this year was poor value going into the Aintree Grand National meeting. Then he won the first four Grade 1 races on the first day and bagged over £400,000 in prize money.
Even after that though, and even after Salvator Mundi and Gentleman De Mee on Friday at Aintree, you could have argued that the 5/1 or 11/2 about him going into Grand National day represented poor value. At Betfair SPs, it was somewhere between 11/4 and 3/1 that Willie Mullins would win the Grand National. If he didn’t win it, it was highly unlikely that he would be able to mount a challenge for the championship and, even if he did win the National, there was a good chance that it still wouldn’t be enough. He needed to do something extraordinary in order to put himself within range and, as we know now, something extraordinary is exactly what he did.
Just when you thought that he had done it all, he goes and has the 1-2-3 in the Aintree Grand National, and the 1-2-3-5-7. And that was from six runners. Appreciate It was brought down, but Willie Mullins’ other five runners filled five of the first seven places. You’re going to need a bigger word for extraordinary.
Mullins’ National double
Just the six runners in today’s Scottish Grand National then and, at best odds, the Willie Mullins horses as a collective are about 6/4 to win a race in which he had the first, fourth, fifth and sixth last year, the first time an Irish-trained horse won the race in an eon.
Chosen Witness is the one who attracted the money during the week but, a 134-rated hurdler who is zero for three over fences, the grip that he had on the top of the market started to loosen once declarations were in.
He may not even go off as favourite now. Captain Cody is the Mullins horse who has attracted the support since declarations.
Macdermott is only 5lb higher now as a seven-year-old than he was when he won the race last year at six, and Olympic Man could take a significant step forward if he could introduce a little more fluency to his jumping. He did really well to beat Foxy Girl at Naas last time after making several mistakes, and his rider Patrick Mullins will be bidding for a rare Aintree Grand National/Scottish Grand National double.
Ruby Walsh went mighty close to achieving the double in 2005, when he won the Aintree Grand National on Hedgehunter and was beaten a short head on Cornish Rebel in the Scottish National, but the last person to achieve the double in the same year was Graham Lee in 2004, on Amberleigh House and Grey Abbey. And before Graham Lee? Red Rum in 1974 (Brian Fletcher).
Sweet tune
Brian Hayes got some tune out of Grangeclare West in the Aintree Grand National, and he is not without a chance this afternoon either on Spanish Harlem. The Spanish Moon gelding is fifth best of the Mullins sextet according to the market, but he ran really well in the race last year. The choice of Paul Townend then, he did well to get as close as he got from off the pace. A mistake at the third last fence didn’t help, but he came from the rear to take sixth place, just over eight lengths behind the winner, in a race in which seven of the first nine home raced in mid-division or better from early.
He gets to race off a 4lb lower mark today and, still only seven, there could be more to come from him as a staying chaser. Cheekpieces could help too.
Brandt could also go well. Cian Collins’ horse has sneaked in at the bottom of the handicap and, a game winner of the ‘Dublin National’ at Leopardstown last time over three and a half miles, he should appreciate every yard of this marathon trip.
There is a chance though that, in all the Mullins musings, the strength of the British challenge has been under-played. Rock My Way ran a big race to finish second behind Haiti Couleurs in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last time on his second run for Joe Tizzard, and he gets to race off a mark that is just 1lb higher today. He has good form at Doncaster and Newbury too, so he should be at home on a relatively flat, left-handed track.
Good value
At a bigger price, however, The Kniphand could represent better value. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse was impressive in winning at Doncaster in December over three miles off a mark of 121, and he probably put up a career-best performance last time back at Doncaster when he finished second to Moroder in the Grimthorpe Chase off a mark of 125.
A mistake at the final fence didn’t help that day, but he closed on the winner all the way to the line, coming away from his other rivals, seeing out the three-and-a-quarter-mile trip well and leaving the impression that he could be better over even further.
He is only seven and that was just his seventh run over fences, so he could step forward again now, stepping up to this marathon trip. He goes well on goodish ground, and he goes well on flat, left-handed tracks. He won at Southwell too in October. A 2lb hike for his Grimthorpe Chase run was not harsh, he has the potential to improve again now as a staying chaser. And Sam Twiston-Davies is back on board.
Champion
Earlier in the day, Kabral Du Mathan could be the answer to the Scottish Champion Hurdle. We haven’t seen Paul Nicholls’ horse since he finished second to Secret Squirrel in a competitive handicap hurdle at Windsor in January, but he goes well fresh, he won a juvenile hurdle on his first run for Paul Nicholls at Huntingdon last January, and he won on his debut this season at Kempton.
Only just beaten by Fiercely Proud in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas, the pair of them clear, he left the impression at Windsor last time that he would be suited by a return to a more galloping track. The handicapper left him on his mark of 139 after that and, as a five-year-old who has raced just five times over hurdles, he has the potential to go beyond that now.
Recommended
Kabral Du Mathan - 2.15 Ayr 1pt win at 7/2 (generally)
The Kniphand - 3.35 Ayr 1pt each-way at 11/1 (generally)